Policy Rules, Regime Switches, and Trend Inflation: An Empirical Investigation for the U.S.

This paper estimates Taylor rules featuring instabilities in policy parameters, switches in policy shocks' volatility, and time-varying trend inflation using post-WWII U.S. data. The model embedding the stochastic target performs better in terms of data-fit and identification of the changes in the FOMC's chairmanships. Policy breaks are found not to be synchronized with variations in policy shocks' volatilities. Finally, we detect a negative correlation between systematic monetary policy aggressiveness and inflation gap persistence.

Policy rules, regime switches, and trend inflation: an empirical investigation for the United States

This paper estimates Taylor rules featuring instabilities in policy parameters and switches in policy shocksvolatility for the post-WWII U.S. economy. We contrast a rule embedding a fixed-inflation target with another featuring trend inflation, i.e. a time-varying inflation target. The rule embedding trend inflation turns out to be a) empirically superior according to a marginal likelihood-based comparison, and b) more able to pin down some relevant episodes of the post-WWII U.S. monetary policy history. Estimates conducted with Greenbook data confirm the empirical superiority of the rule featuring a time-varying inflation target. A comparison with recently published estimates of trend inflation is also conducte

Il «pulvis et umbra» oraziano in alcuni poeti latini tardoantichi

L\u2019affermazione di Orazio pulvis et umbra sumus (Carm. 4.7.16) ha lasciato un\u2019impronta nei poeti successivi? Scopo del mio articolo \ue8 analizzare l\u2019influenza di un tale verso su tre autori tardoantichi: Ausonio, Paolino di Nola e Venanzio Fortunato. Essi si rifanno al modello in modi differenti: se Ausonio si limita a riprodurre il verso di Orazio, Paolino, invece, riprende i termini pulvis et umbra aggiungendovi sine Christo, per mettere in luce la diversit\ue0 fra la visione pagana e la sua concezione di vita rinnovata dalla conversione. Inoltre, echi dalle Scritture nei due passi di Paolino e di Venanzio portano a una ricchezza di significato dovuta all\u2019incontro fra la tradizione classica e quella biblica. Un\u2019appendice tenta di rispondere alla domanda su quale testo del Salterio conoscesse Paolino.Has the Horatian statement pulvis et umbra sumus (Carm. 4.7.16) left his mark on later poets? This paper aims to analize the influence of such a verse on three authors from Late Antiquity: Ausonius, Paulinus of Nola and Venantius Fortunatus. They refer to the model in different ways: if Ausonius simply borrows the verse from Horace, Paulinus, instead, quotes the terms pulvis et umbra adding sine Christo, in order to point out the divergence between pagan view and his new concept of life after the conversion. Moreover, echoes from the Scriptures in Paulinus and Venantius\u2019 passages give new meanings to their texts by the encounter between classical and biblical tradition. An appendix deals with the text of the Psalter which Paulinus probably knew

LE STROFI SAFFICHE IN ORAZIO, AUSONIO E PRUDENZIO: TRA INNODIA E POESIA PROFANA

This dissertation deals with the Sapphic stanzas composed by an ancient poet, Horace, and by two late Latin poets, Ausonius and Prudentius. In the first chapter I point out that from Horace to medieval poetry there is a strict connection between the Sapphic meter and hymnody; Prudentius is a key figure in the evolution of the poetry in Sapphics: he is the link between Horace\u2019s Sapphic poems and medieval hymns. Then, I state that Christian hymnodists considered Horace their classical antecedent in the genre of hymnody, along with David, whose Psaltery is a model for Christian hymns. The second and the third chapters are the core of my dissertation: they focus on Prudentius\u2019 Cath. 8 and its relationship with Horace\u2019s Carmen saeculare. I first examine the collocation of Cath. 8 in the collection of the hymns for every hour, then I analyse its biblical narrative, in which I find a baptismal symbolism. In the third chapter, I try not to be influenced by political prejudices on the Secular song, but I seek to read Horace\u2019s poem as late antique poets read it \u2013 as a hymn, not as a political ode. At the end of my analysis of Horace\u2019s influence on Cath. 8, I draw the conclusion that Prudentius recalls just those Horatian poems that can be considered hymns or odes on morality. After that, I address the issue of the singing of Horace\u2019s poems through the centuries and last I focus on phonic and rhythmic aspects of Prudentius\u2019 lyrical poetry. In the last chapter I investigate the relationship between Horace and Ausonius through the perspective of a single poem, Ephem. 1; a metaliterary reflection at the end of Ephem. 1 paves the way to a metapoetical use of the Sapphic stanzas. Finally, I compare Prudentius\u2019 Cathemerinon with Ausonius\u2019 Ephemeris in order to see how Prudentius both recalls and distances himself from Ausonius\u2019 poetry

Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News From A Non-linear World

We estimate non-linear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the US. We deal with the issue of non-fundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures. This measure of anticipated fiscal shocks is shown to carry valuable information about future dynamics of public spending. Results based on generalised impulse responses suggest that fiscal spending multipliers in recessions are greater than one, but not statistically larger than those in expansions. However, non-linearities arise when focusing on 'extreme' events, that is, deep recessions versus strong expansionary periods

Sleep disturbances and sleep disorders as risk factors for chronic postsurgical pain: A systematic review and meta-analysis

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed at evaluating the role of sleep disturbances and sleep disorders in influencing presence and intensity of chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP). We included cohort studies which enrolled adults, assessed sleep disturbances or disorders before surgery, measured pain intensity, presence of pain, or opioid use at least three months after surgery. Eighteen studies were included in a narrative synthesis and 12 in a meta-analysis. Sleep disturbances and disorders were significantly related to CPSP, with a small effect size, r = 0.13 (95% CI 0.06–0.20). The certainty of evidence was rated low due to risk of bias and heterogeneity. In subgroup analyses the above association was significant in studies that used pain intensity as the outcome, but not in those that used presence of pain; in studies on patients who underwent total knee arthroplasty or other surgeries, but not in those on patients who had breast cancer surgery or total hip arthroplasty; in the single study that assessed insomnia and in studies that assessed sleep disturbances as predictors. A meta-regression showed that the follow-up length was positively associated with the overall estimate. Our findings suggest that presurgical sleep disturbances and disorders should be evaluated to detect patients at risk for CPSP. Registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?RecordID=27265

evaluation of liver fibrosis concordance analysis between noninvasive scores apri and fib 4 evolution and predictors in a cohort of hiv infected patients without hepatitis c and b infection

Background. There is lack of data on the incidence of liver fibrosis (LF) progression in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) monoinfection and risk factors for LF. Methods. We performed an observational prospective study in a cohort of HIV-infected patients who had initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). FIB-4 and aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) were assessed. The concordance between the 2 scores was assessed by weighted kappa coefficient. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate the incidence of LF. Cox regression analysis was used to assess the predictors of transition. Results. A total of 1112 patients were observed for a mean of 2249 days of follow-up. The concordance between FIB-4 and APRI was moderate (kappa = .573). The incidence of transition to higher FIB-4 classes was 0.064 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.056―0.072) per person-year of follow-up (PYFU), whereas the incidence of transition to higher APRI classes was 0.099 (95% CI, 0.089-0.110) per PYFU. The incidence of transition to FIB-4 >3.25 was 0.013 per PYFU (95% CI, 0.010-0.017) and 0.018 per PYFU (95% CI, 0.014―0.022) for APRI >1.5. In multivariate analyses, for transition to higher classes, HIV RNA level 3.25 and APRI> 1.5 as study outcomes. Conclusions. Overall, our results suggest a possible benefit associated with earlier HAART initiation, provided that the effectiveness of HAART is sustained and treatment with DDX is avoided

Treatment with fibrates is associated with higher LAL activity in dyslipidemic patients

Lysosomal acid lipase (LAL) is responsible for the hydrolysis of cholesteryl esters (CE) and triglycerides (TG) within the lysosomes; generated cholesterol and free fatty acids (FFA) are released in the cytosol where they can regulate their own synthesis and metabolism. When LAL is not active, as in case of genetic mutations, CE and TG accumulate in the lysosomal compartment, while the lack of release of cholesterol and FFA in the cytosol leads to an upregulation of their synthesis. Thus, LAL plays a central role in the intracellular homeostasis of lipids. Since there are no indications about the effect of different lipid-lowering agents on LAL activity, aim of the study was to address the relationship between LAL activity and the type of lipid-lowering therapy in a cohort of dyslipidemic patients. LAL activity was measured on dried blood spot from 120 patients with hypercholesterolemia or mixed dyslipidemia and was negatively correlated to LDL-cholesterol levels. Among enrolled patients, ninety-one were taking one or more lipid-lowering drugs, as statins, fibrates, ezetimibe and omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. When patients were stratified according to the type of lipid-lowering treatment, i.e. untreated, taking statins or taking fibrates, LAL activity was significantly higher in those with fibrates, even after adjustment for sex, age, BMI, lipid parameters, liver function, metabolic syndrome, diabetes and statin use. In a subset of patients tested after 3 months of treatment with micronized fenofibrate, LAL activity raised by 21%; the increase was negatively correlated with baseline LAL activity. Thus, the use of fibrates is independently associated with higher LAL activity in dyslipidemic patients, suggesting that the positive effects of PPAR-\u3b1 activation on cellular and systemic lipid homeostasis can also include an improved LAL activity