Not only climate: Interacting drivers of treeline change in Europe

Treelines have long been recognized as important ecotones and likely harbingers of climate change. However, over the last century many treelines have been affected not only by global warming, but also by the interactions of climate, forest disturbance and the consequences of abrupt demographic and economic changes. Recent research has increasingly stressed how multiple ecological, biophysical, and human factors interact to shape ecological dynamics. Here we highlight the need to consider interactions among multiple drivers to more completely understand and predict treeline dynamics in Europe

Reconstrucción espacial y temporal de la ocurrencia de avalanchas de nieve en los Andes patagónicos utilizando técnicas dendrocronológicas Dendrochronological reconstruction of spatial and temporal patterns of snow avalanches in the Patagonian Andes

<abstract language="eng">Las avalanchas de nieve representan un importante riesgo natural en diversas regiones montañosas alrededor del mundo. Daños a infraestructura y pérdidas de vidas humanas son reportados frecuentemente en relación a eventos catastróficos de avalanchas. En los Andes, numerosas obras de infraestructura se ubican en zonas vecinas a senderos de avalanchas, de las que poco se conoce sobre sus alcances máximos, periodos de retorno y presiones de impacto. A través de la implementación de técnicas dendrocronológicas hemos reconstruido las fechas de ocurrencia y áreas de influencia de eventos pasados de avalanchas de nieve. Ejemplares de Nothofagus pumilio con perturbaciones visibles de avalanchas fueron muestreados en sectores del canal, bordes y zonas de frenado de 11 senderos de avalanchas ubicados en Loma de las Pizarras, próximo a El Chaltén, Santa Cruz, Argentina. Además, áreas de control fueron muestreadas para determinar las condiciones de crecimiento en árboles no afectados por avalanchas. Nuestros análisis indican que las cicatrices, las variaciones de excentricidad en el leño, los cambios abruptos de crecimiento y la presencia de leño de tensión son los principales indicadores dendrocronológicos en N. pumilio asociados a la ocurrencia de avalanchas. Basados en una ponderación cuantitativa de los indicadores y en la profundidad de muestreo, calculamos un índice de ocurrencia de eventos, el cual nos permitió determinar para cada sendero los años con ocurrencia de avalanchas. Considerando de manera integral la actividad de avalanchas en los 11 senderos muestreados, los años con mayor ocurrencia de eventos fueron 1936, 1966, 1978 y 1995. Complementariamente, registros climáticos fueron analizados con el objetivo de determinar las relaciones entre los años con ocurrencia de avalanchas y las variaciones mensuales de precipitación y temperatura. Se observa que los años con gran frecuencia de avalanchas están significativamente correlacionados con la ocurrencia de abundantes precipitaciones invernales; no se detectaron relaciones significativas con las variaciones de temperatura. Los resultados alcanzados en esta investigación prueban el potencial dendrocronológico de N. pumilio para reconstruir patrones espaciales y temporales de avalanchas de nieve en los Andes patagónicos

Not only climate: Interacting drivers of treeline change in Europe

Treelines have long been recognized as important ecotones and likely harbingers of climate change. However, over the last century many treelines have been affected not only by global warming, but also by the interactions of climate, forest disturbance and the consequences of abrupt demographic and economic changes. Recent research has increasingly stressed how multiple ecological, biophysical, and human factors interact to shape ecological dynamics. Here we highlight the need to consider interactions among multiple drivers to more completely understand and predict treeline dynamics in Europe

Not only climate: Interacting drivers of treeline change in Europe

Treelines have long been recognized as important ecotones and likely harbingers of climate change. However, over the last century many treelines have been affected not only by global warming, but also by the interactions of climate, forest disturbance and the consequences of abrupt demographic and economic changes. Recent research has increasingly stressed how multiple ecological, biophysical, and human factors interact to shape ecological dynamics. Here we highlight the need to consider interactions among multiple drivers to more completely understand and predict treeline dynamics in Europe

Snow avalanche activity in Żleb Żandarmerii in a time of climate change (Tatra Mts., Poland)

This paper reports from a survey of the occurrence of large avalanches in Żleb Żandarmerii. This couloir is known to be one of the most hazardous avalanche paths in the Tatra Mountains and has one of the longest histories of avalanche observation. This survey looked at the runout distance, return period, dynamics and geoecological implications of avalanches in the context of current climate change. The study took advantage of the longest record of meteorological data available in the Tatra Mountains, as well as archival avalanche observations, topographical maps, orthophotomaps and a high-resolution digital terrain model. Avalanche data were obtained using geomorphological and dendrogeomorphic methods and through modelling with the RAMMS numerical avalanche dynamics simulation software. The largest avalanches reach the foot of its counter slope. Their length, release volume, flow velocity and pressure can exceed respectively 1000 m, 80 000 m3, 45 m/s and 600 kPa. The results of our study suggest that current climate warming has been accompanied by thinning and shortening of the duration of snow cover, as well as by an upward expansion of the timberline (including in the large-avalanche runout zones) of up to 80 m since the mid-1920s. No distinct temporal trend was identified in the large avalanche return period since 1909, but their mass and intensity have declined. Forests and timberline expansion were found to have no influence on the extent of the avalanches in our study, while ground relief could determine both their downward extent and lateral expansion.Fil: Gadek, Bogdan. University of Silesi; PoloniaFil: Kaczka, Ryszard J.. University of Silesi; PoloniaFil: Raczkowska, Zofia. Polish Academy of Sciences. Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization; PoloniaFil: Rojan, Elzbieta. Uniwersytet Warszawski; ArgentinaFil: Casteller, Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research; SuizaFil: Bebi, Peter. Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research; Suiz

Analysis and dynamic modeling of a moraine failure and glacier lake outburst flood at Ventisquero Negro, Patagonian Andes (Argentina)

Although moraine dams are inherently prone to failure because of their often weak structure, loose internal composition and lack of an engineered spillway, the understanding of dam breaching processes remains largely incomplete and appropriate modeling approaches are scarce. This paper analyzes a recent glacier lake outburst, caused by the failure of the terminal moraine of Ventisquero Negro (Patagonian Andes, Argentina) in May 2009. The dam breach trigger, breaching and lake emptying processes, plus the dynamics of the outburst flood were reconstructed based on field evidence and the application of a dynamic dam break model. Results indicate that the moraine failure was caused most probably by a rising lake level due to heavy precipitation, resulting in high lake outflow which led to dam erosion and finally to dam failure. The lake volume of ca. 10 x 10⁶ m³ was released in ca. 3 h, producing high-discharge (ca. 4100 m³ s⁻¹) debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows as the escaping water entrained large volumes of clastic material. The methodology presented in this paper provides valuable insights into complex dam breach and GLOF processes, and closes a critical gap in dynamic dam break modeling aimed at providing the lake outburst hydrograph. An accurate determination of outburst hydrographs constitutes one of the most crucial aspects for hazard assessment of unstable lakes and will gain further importance with ongoing glacier retreat and glacier lake formation

Dendrogeomorphic reconstruction of flash floods in the Patagonian Andes

Flash floods represent a significant natural hazard in small mountainous catchments of the Patagonian Andes and have repeatedly caused loss to life and infrastructure. At the same time, however, documentary records of past events remain fairly scarce and highly fragmentary in most cases. In this study, we therefore reconstruct the spatiotemporal patterns of past flash flood activity along the Los Cipreses torrent (Neuquén, Argentina) using dendrogeomorphic methods. Based on samples from Austrocedrus chilensis, Pseudotsuga menziesii, and Nothofagus dombeyi, we document 21 flash flood events covering the period A.D. 1890–2009 and reconstruct mean recurrence intervals of events at the level of individual trees being impacted, which varies from 4 to 93 years. Results show that trees tend to be older (younger) in sectors of the torrent with gentler (steeper) slope gradients. Potential triggers of flash floods were analyzed using daily temperature and precipitation data from a nearby weather station. Weather conditions leading to flash floods are abundant precipitations during one to three consecutive days, combined with temperatures above the rain/snow threshold (2 °C) in the whole watershed.EEA BarilocheFil: Casteller, Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research; SuizaFil: Stoffel, Markus. University of Bern. Institute of Geological Sciences; Suiza. University of Geneva. Institute for Environmental Sciences; SuizaFil: Crespo, Sebastián Andrés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Corona, Christophe. University of Bern. Institute of Geological Sciences; SuizaFil: Bianchi, Emilio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche; Argentina

Assessing the interaction between mountain forests and snow avalanches at Nevados de Chillán, Chile and its implications for ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction

Gravitational natural hazards such as snow avalanches, rockfalls, shallow landslides and volcanic activity represent a risk to mountain communities around the world. In particular, where documentary records about these processes are rare, decisions on risk management and land-use planning have to be based on a variety of other sources including vegetation, tree-ring data and natural hazard process models. We used a combination of these methods in order to evaluate dynamics of natural hazards with a focus on snow avalanches at Valle Las Trancas, in the Biobío region in Chile. Along this valley, natural hazards threaten not only the local human population, but also the numerous tourists attracted by outdoor recreational activities. Given the regional scarcity of documentary records, tree-ring methods were applied in order to reconstruct the local history of snow avalanches and debris flow events, which are the most important weather-related processes at respective tracks. A recent version of the model Rapid Mass MovementS (RAMMS), which includes influences of forest structure, was used to calculate different avalanche parameters such as runout distances and maximum pressures, taking into consideration the presence or absence of forest along the tracks as well as different modeled return periods. Our results show that local Nothofagus broadleaf forests contribute to a reduction of avalanche runout distances as well as impact pressure on present infrastructure, thus constituting a valuable ecosystem disaster risk reduction measure that can substitute or complement other traditional measures such as snow sheds

Validating numerical simulations of snow avalanches using dendrochronology: the Cerro Ventana event in Northern Patagonia, Argentina

The damage caused by snow avalanches to property and human lives is underestimated in many regions around the world, especially where this natural hazard remains poorly documented. One such region is the Argentinean Andes, where numerous settlements are threatened almost every winter by large snow avalanches. On 1 September 2002, the largest tragedy in the history of Argentinean mountaineering took place at Cerro Ventana, Northern Patagonia: nine persons were killed and seven others injured by a snow avalanche. In this paper, we combine both numerical modeling and dendrochronological investigations to reconstruct this event. Using information released by local governmental authorities and compiled in the field, the avalanche event was numerically simulated using the avalanche dynamics programs AVAL-1D and RAMMS. Avalanche characteristics, such as extent and date were determined using dendrochronological techniques. Model simulation results were compared with documentary and tree-ring evidences for the 2002 event. Our results show a good agreement between the simulated projection of the avalanche and its reconstructed extent using tree-ring records. Differences between the observed and the simulated avalanche, principally related to the snow height deposition in the run-out zone, are mostly attributed to the low resolution of the digital elevation model used to represent the valley topography. The main contributions of this study are (1) to provide the first calibration of numerical avalanche models for the Patagonian Andes and (2) to highlight the potential of Nothofagus pumilio tree-ring records to reconstruct past snow-avalanche events in time and space. Future research should focus on testing this combined approach in other forested regions of the Andes.ISSN:1561-8633ISSN:1684-998