Measuring Accuracy of Automated Parsing and Categorization Tools and Processes in Digital Investigations

This work presents a method for the measurement of the accuracy of evidential artifact extraction and categorization tasks in digital forensic investigations. Instead of focusing on the measurement of accuracy and errors in the functions of digital forensic tools, this work proposes the application of information retrieval measurement techniques that allow the incorporation of errors introduced by tools and analysis processes. This method uses a `gold standard' that is the collection of evidential objects determined by a digital investigator from suspect data with an unknown ground truth. This work proposes that the accuracy of tools and investigation processes can be evaluated compared to the derived gold standard using common precision and recall values. Two example case studies are presented showing the measurement of the accuracy of automated analysis tools as compared to an in-depth analysis by an expert. It is shown that such measurement can allow investigators to determine changes in accuracy of their processes over time, and determine if such a change is caused by their tools or knowledge.Comment: 17 pages, 2 appendices, 1 figure, 5th International Conference on Digital Forensics and Cyber Crime; Digital Forensics and Cyber Crime, pp. 147-169, 201

Uncovering treatment burden as a key concept for stroke care: a systematic review of qualitative research

<b>Background</b> Patients with chronic disease may experience complicated management plans requiring significant personal investment. This has been termed ‘treatment burden’ and has been associated with unfavourable outcomes. The aim of this systematic review is to examine the qualitative literature on treatment burden in stroke from the patient perspective.<p></p> <b>Methods and findings</b> The search strategy centred on: stroke, treatment burden, patient experience, and qualitative methods. We searched: Scopus, CINAHL, Embase, Medline, and PsycINFO. We tracked references, footnotes, and citations. Restrictions included: English language, date of publication January 2000 until February 2013. Two reviewers independently carried out the following: paper screening, data extraction, and data analysis. Data were analysed using framework synthesis, as informed by Normalization Process Theory. Sixty-nine papers were included. Treatment burden includes: (1) making sense of stroke management and planning care, (2) interacting with others, (3) enacting management strategies, and (4) reflecting on management. Health care is fragmented, with poor communication between patient and health care providers. Patients report inadequate information provision. Inpatient care is unsatisfactory, with a perceived lack of empathy from professionals and a shortage of stimulating activities on the ward. Discharge services are poorly coordinated, and accessing health and social care in the community is difficult. The study has potential limitations because it was restricted to studies published in English only and data from low-income countries were scarce.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b> Stroke management is extremely demanding for patients, and treatment burden is influenced by micro and macro organisation of health services. Knowledge deficits mean patients are ill equipped to organise their care and develop coping strategies, making adherence less likely. There is a need to transform the approach to care provision so that services are configured to prioritise patient needs rather than those of health care systems

AKARI Observation of the North Ecliptic Pole (NEP) Supercluster at z = 0.087: mid-infrared view of transition galaxies

We present the mid-infrared (MIR) properties of galaxies within a supercluster in the North Ecliptic Pole region at z?0.087 observed with the AKARI satellite. We use data from the AKARI NEP-Wide (5.4 deg2) IR survey and the CLusters of galaxies EVoLution studies (CLEVL) mission program. We show that near-IR (3 {\mu}m)-mid- IR (11 {\mu}m) color can be used as an indicator of the specific star formation rate and the presence of intermediate age stellar populations. From the MIR observations, we find that red-sequence galaxies consist not only of passively evolving red early-type galaxies, but also of 1) "weak-SFG" (disk-dominated star-forming galaxies which have star formation rates lower by \sim 4 \times than blue-cloud galaxies), and 2) "intermediate- MXG" (bulge-dominated galaxies showing stronger MIR dust emission than normal red early-type galaxies). Those two populations can be a set of transition galaxies from blue, star-forming, late-type galaxies evolving into red, quiescent, early-type ones. We find that the weak-SFG are predominant at intermediate masses (1010M\odot < M\star < 1010.5M\odot) and are typically found in local densities similar to the outskirts of galaxy clusters. As much as 40% of the supercluster member galaxies in this mass range can be classified as weak-SFGs, but their proportion decreases to < 10% at larger masses (M\star > 1010.5 M\odot) at any galaxy density. The fraction of the intermediate-MXG among red- sequence galaxies at 1010M\odot < M\star < 1011M\odot also decreases as the density and mass increase. In particular, \sim42% of the red-sequence galaxies with early-type morphologies are classified as intermediate-MXG at intermediate densities. These results suggest that the star formation activity is strongly dependent on the stellar mass, but that the morphological transformation is mainly controlled by the environment.Comment: 46 pages, 25 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Ecoregional Analysis of Nearshore Sea-Surface Temperature in the North Pacific

The quantification and description of sea surface temperature (SST) is critically important because it can influence the distribution, migration, and invasion of marine species; furthermore, SSTs are expected to be affected by climate change. To better understand present temperature regimes, we assembled a 29-year nearshore time series of mean monthly SSTs along the North Pacific coastline using remotely-sensed satellite data collected with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument. We then used the dataset to describe nearshore (<20 km offshore) SST patterns of 16 North Pacific ecoregions delineated by the Marine Ecoregions of the World (MEOW) hierarchical schema. Annual mean temperature varied from 3.8°C along the Kamchatka ecoregion to 24.8°C in the Cortezian ecoregion. There are smaller annual ranges and less variability in SST in the Northeast Pacific relative to the Northwest Pacific. Within the 16 ecoregions, 31–94% of the variance in SST is explained by the annual cycle, with the annual cycle explaining the least variation in the Northern California ecoregion and the most variation in the Yellow Sea ecoregion. Clustering on mean monthly SSTs of each ecoregion showed a clear break between the ecoregions within the Warm and Cold Temperate provinces of the MEOW schema, though several of the ecoregions contained within the provinces did not show a significant difference in mean seasonal temperature patterns. Comparison of these temperature patterns shared some similarities and differences with previous biogeographic classifications and the Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs). Finally, we provide a web link to the processed data for use by other researchers

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Sensitization of catastrophic cognition in cognitive-behavioral therapy for panic disorder

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cognitive model of panic disorder have proposed that panic attacks result from the catastrophic misinterpretation of certain bodily sensations. Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) for panic disorder aims to change these catastrophic cognitions. CBT intervention successfully caused reduction of catastrophic cognitions and symptomatic improvement in the majority of cases. However there are some patients who fail to modify their catastrophic cognitions or rather experience an increase in them during CBT treatment. It is clinically and theoretically important to understand about cognitive sensitization of panic disorder during CBT sessions. The purpose of the present study is 1) to clarify the baseline characteristics of panic patients who would experience sensitization of their catastrophic cognitions through the CBT treatment, and 2) to examine the course of symptomatic changes for them.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Of ninety-five outpatients with panic disorder started the group CBT program for treatment of panic disorder, seventy-nine completer were classified as "cognitively sensitized (CS)" or "cognitive responding (CR)" or "no-responder" according to the difference of the Agoraphobic Cognitions Questionnaire score across treatment. We compared the CS and CR patients in terms of their baseline clinical characteristics. Then we assessed the symptomatic and functional changes for both groups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At the start of the CBT program, despite of the same degree of panic disorder severity, CS scored significantly lower on ACQ score than CR. CS also showed significantly lower score on anticipatory anxiety compared to CR. At the end of treatment CS showed significant improvement in severity of panic disorder, although the degree of improvement was smaller than that for CR. Then CS would progressively reduce their agoraphobic fear and avoidance, and would improve their functional impairment up to three month of follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Panic patients who would experience sensitization of their catastrophic cognitions through the CBT treatment could nonetheless gradually improve. They showed a relatively low level of catastrophic cognition and anticipatory anxiety before starting the CBT program. We might conclude that temporary sensitization of catastrophic cognition may be necessary before improvement especially among those with initially low catastrophic body sensation fears and that we need not be concerned too much with temporary increase in catastrophic cognition in the process of CBT for panic disorder.</p

Landmarking the brain for geometric morphometric analysis: An error study

Neuroanatomic phenotypes are often assessed using volumetric analysis. Although powerful and versatile, this approach is limited in that it is unable to quantify changes in shape, to describe how regions are interrelated, or to determine whether changes in size are global or local. Statistical shape analysis using coordinate data from biologically relevant landmarks is the preferred method for testing these aspects of phenotype. To date, approximately fifty landmarks have been used to study brain shape. Of the studies that have used landmark-based statistical shape analysis of the brain, most have not published protocols for landmark identification or the results of reliability studies on these landmarks. The primary aims of this study were two-fold: (1) to collaboratively develop detailed data collection protocols for a set of brain landmarks, and (2) to complete an intra- and inter-observer validation study of the set of landmarks. Detailed protocols were developed for 29 cortical and subcortical landmarks using a sample of 10 boys aged 12 years old. Average intra-observer error for the final set of landmarks was 1.9 mm with a range of 0.72 mm-5.6 mm. Average inter-observer error was 1.1 mm with a range of 0.40 mm-3.4 mm. This study successfully establishes landmark protocols with a minimal level of error that can be used by other researchers in the assessment of neuroanatomic phenotypes. © 2014 Chollet et al

Development of Mathematical Models for the Analysis of Hepatitis Delta Virus Viral Dynamics

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models have shown to be extremely helpful in understanding the dynamics of different virus diseases, including hepatitis B. Hepatitis D virus (HDV) is a satellite virus of the hepatitis B virus (HBV). In the liver, production of new HDV virions depends on the presence of HBV. There are two ways in which HDV can occur in an individual: co-infection and super-infection. Co-infection occurs when an individual is simultaneously infected by HBV and HDV, while super-infection occurs in persons with an existing chronic HBV infection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this work a mathematical model based on differential equations is proposed for the viral dynamics of the hepatitis D virus (HDV) across different scenarios. This model takes into consideration the knowledge of the biology of the virus and its interaction with the host. In this work we will present the results of a simulation study where two scenarios were considered, co-infection and super-infection, together with different antiviral therapies. Although, in general the predicted course of HDV infection is similar to that observed for HBV, we observe a faster increase in the number of HBV infected cells and viral load. In most tested scenarios, the number of HDV infected cells and viral load values remain below corresponding predicted values for HBV. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The simulation study shows that, under the most commonly used and generally accepted therapy approaches for HDV infection, such as lamivudine (LMV) or ribavirine, peggylated alpha-interferon (IFN) or a combination of both, LMV monotherapy and combination therapy of LMV and IFN were predicted to more effectively reduce the HBV and HDV viral loads in the case of super-infection scenarios when compared with the co-infection. In contrast, IFN monotherapy was found to reduce the HDV viral load more efficiently in the case of super-infection while the effect on the HBV viral load was more pronounced during co-infection. The results suggest that there is a need for development of high efficacy therapeutic approaches towards the specific inhibition of HDV replication. These approaches may additionally be directed to the reduction of the half-life of infected cells and life-span of newly produced circulating virions