Generalized Poisson difference autoregressive processes

This paper introduces a novel stochastic process with signed integer values. Its autoregressive dynamics effectively captures persistence in conditional moments, rendering it a valuable feature for forecasting applications. The increments follow a Generalized Poisson distribution, capable of accommodating over- and under-dispersion in the conditional distribution, thereby extending standard Poisson difference models. We derive key properties of the process, including stationarity conditions, the stationary distribution, and conditional and unconditional moments, which prove essential for accurate forecasting. We provide a Bayesian inference framework with an efficient posterior approximation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. This approach seamlessly incorporates inherent parameter uncertainty into predictive distributions. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated through applications to benchmark datasets on car accidents and an original dataset on cyber threats, highlighting its superior fitting and forecasting capabilities compared to standard Poisson model

Relating Group Size and Posting Activity of an Online Community of Financial Investors: Regularities and Seasonal Patterns

Group size can potentially affect collective activity and individual propensity to contribute to collective goods. Mancur Olson, in his Logic of Collective Action, argued that individual contribution to a collective good tends to be lower in groups of large size. Today, online communication platforms represent an interesting ground to study such collaborative dynamics under possibly different conditions (e.g., lower costs related to gather and share information). This paper examines the relationship between group size and activity in an online financial forum, where users invest time in sharing news, analysis and comments with other investors. We looked at about 24 million messages shared in more than ten years in the finanzaonline.com online forum. We found that the relationship between the number of active users and the number of posts shared by those users is of the power type (with exponent α\u3e1) and is subject to periodic fluctuations, mostly driven by hour-of-the-day and day-of-the-week effects. The daily patterns of the exponent showed a divergence between working week and weekend days. In general, the exponent was lower before noon, where investors are typically interested in market news, higher in the late afternoon, where markets are closing and investors need better understanding of the situation. Further research is needed, especially at the micro level, to dissect the mechanisms behind these regularities

Interacting Multiple Try Algorithms with Different Proposal Distributions

We propose a new class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms designed for increasing the efficiency of a modified multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) algorithm. The extension with respect to the existing MCMC literature is twofold. The sampler proposed extends the basic MTM algorithm by allowing different proposal distributions in the multiple-try generation step. We exploit the structure of the MTM algorithm with different proposal distributions to naturally introduce an interacting MTM mechanism (IMTM) that expands the class of population Monte Carlo methods. We show the validity of the algorithm and discuss the choice of the selection weights and of the different proposals. We provide numerical studies which show that the new algorithm can perform better than the basic MTM algorithm and that the interaction mechanism allows the IMTM to efficiently explore the state space

Enhancing L2 skills through independent learning: the case study of Italian e-magazine

Engaging students in the learning process of a second language can be challenging and the tutor always needs to find new tools to enhance motivation for learner engagement in and outside the classroom. Starting from our linguistic and journalistic background, we started to create an e-magazine in Italian language (dealing with Italian topics, current affairs in Italy, etc.) with the active involvement of the Italian class students from Upper Intermediate to Proficiency level (B1 to C2). The Italian e-magazine is created within the Department of Languages at Leeds Beckett University to allow students to develop academic skills and to embrace a topic-based linguistic challenge of authentic materials. The students have been deeply engaged in research, reading, discussion and writing in Italian and the results of this experiment have been significantly impactful. The practice of the four skills has resulted in an enrichment of the vocabulary, a development of accuracy and the creation of group works with exchange of opinions. The experience has shown how the flipped classroom experience and the independent learning can interchangeably inform each other. All these activities led to: • Developing motivation • Stimulating interest and curiosity • Engagement in research • Flipped learning Students became active participants in planning and delivering learning activities. They have developed and produced tools in a learner-centred approach, showing a great interest in the idea and a significant improvement in their learning process. “The important practical contribution of the students represents the strength of their engagement in the study of the target language and the involvement in writing as a tool for learning and development” (Ferris D., 2008). It has become clear that this project is going to grow more and more thanks to the enthusiasm of our learners and the support in the group work

Phosphorus placement for annual crops in the tropics.

This article discusses principles for optimizing the placement of P in soils of the tropics?looking towards better agronomic, economic, environmental, and social outcomes. General guidelines are offered for short and long-term sustainability

Generalized Poisson Difference Autoregressive Processes

This paper introduces a new stochastic process with values in the set Z of integers with sign. The increments of process are Poisson differences and the dynamics has an autoregressive structure. We study the properties of the process and exploit the thinning representation to derive stationarity conditions and the stationary distribution of the process. We provide a Bayesian inference method and an efficient posterior approximation procedure based on Monte Carlo. Numerical illustrations on both simulated and real data show the effectiveness of the proposed inference

Virgin and recycled polypropylene composites reinforced with sisal by-product

Foram estudadas as propriedades térmicas e mecânicas de compósitos de polipropileno, virgem e reciclado, reforçados com 30% em massa de fibras residuais de sisal, assim como o perfil de processamento e a morfologia da matriz polimérica. Para tanto, foram determinadas a resistência à tração, o módulo de Young, alongamento na ruptura, e energia de impacto. As amostras também foram caracterizadas por MEV, DMTA e TG. Para ambos os compósitos de polipropileno, virgem e reciclado, com a adição das fibras, o alongamento na ruptura mostrou uma queda significativa, enquanto que a resistência à tração não sofreu grandes variações. Houve um aumento significativo nos valores de tração na ruptura e de energia de impacto com a adição das fibras de sisal na matriz de polipropileno. As análises térmicas mostraram ligações secundárias, como as ligações polares, entre as fibras e a matriz, concordando com o comportamento mecânico dos compósitos. Constatou-se que a temperatura de transição vítrea não variou após a adição da fibra.The mechanical and thermal properties of virgin and recycled polypropylene composites reinforced with 30% by mass of residual sisal fibers were studied, in addition to an analysis of the extrusion process and morphology of the polymeric matrix. Tensile strength, Young's modulus, elongation at break, and impact energy were determined. The samples were also characterized by SEM, DMTA and TG analyses. Elongation at break of the composites presented a significant decrease, while the tensile strength was not affected significantly by addition of sisal fibers. A significant increase was observed in the tension of rupture and in the impact energy of the composite reinforced with sisal fiber. The thermal analyses indicated secondary interactions, such as polar interactions, between the fibers and the matrix, consistent with the mechanical behavior of the composites. The glass transition temperature has not changed after fiber addition.Universidade Federal de São Carlos - Departamento de Engenharia de MateriaisFinepCNP

A cohort study on detecting delirium using 4 ‘A’s Test in a London, UK, hospital

© 2016 Research & Reviews. This is an Open Access article. Content in the UH Research Archive is made available for personal research, educational, and non-commercial purposes only. Unless otherwise stated, all content is protected by copyright, and in the absence of an open license, permissions for further re-use should be sought from the publisher, the author, or other copyright holder.Delirium is a common neuropsychiatric disorder in hospitalised older adults. Often unrecognized, delirium is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, length of hospital stay, institutionalisation and costs to healthcare providers. The objective of this prospective cohort study was to detect the prevalence of delirium in a London (UK) hospital testing the feasibility and reliability of the 4 A's Test (4AT). Over a seven day period 174 inpatients were assessed by non-psychiatrically trained doctors using the 4AT and three widely adopted screening tools. The 4AT helped detect 21 (10.2%) delirious patients uncovering a delirium prevalence of 8.63 per 1000 hospital days. The 4AT showed a compatibility of 75% with other tools used. Changes in consciousness are often missed, but can be easily detected introducing a screening tool as the 4AT.Peer reviewe

Spontaneous self-assembly of an unsymmetric trinuclear triangular copper(II) pyrazolate complex, [Cu3(μ3-OH)(μ-pz) 3(MeCOO)2(Hpz)] (Hpz = pyrazole). Synthesis, experimental and theoretical characterization, reactivity, and catalytic activity

The almost quantitative formation of the triangular trinuclear copper derivative [Cu3(μ3-OH)(μ-pz)3(MeCOO) 2(Hpz)] (1) (Hpz = pyrazole), has been simply achieved by adding Hpz to an ethanol solution of Cu(MeCOO)2·H2O. An X-ray molecular structure determination shows that 1 is completely unsymmetric and that trinuclear units result assembled in an extended bidimensional network formed through acetate bridges and hydrogen bonds. EPR and magnetic measurements are consistent with the presence of a single unpaired electron. Theoretical density functional calculations carried out for S = 1/2 provide a thorough description of the electronic structure of 1, allowing a detailed assignment of its UV-vis absorption spectrum. Compound 1 reacts with MeONa, yielding [Cu 3(μ3-OH)(μ-pz)3(MeCOO)(MeO)(Hpz)] (2) and [Cu3(μ3-OH)(μ-pz)3(MeO) 2(Hpz)] (3) through the substitution of one and two acetate ions, respectively, with MeO- ion(sS). The spontaneous self-assembly of the triangular trinuclear Cu3 moiety seems to occur only with pyrazole as can be inferred by the results obtained in the reactions of copper(II) acetate with some substituted pyrazoles leading to the formation of mononuclear [Cu(MeCOO)2(L)2] (4-8) and dinuclear [Cu(MeCOO) 2(L)]2 (9-11) (L = substituted pyrazole) compounds. Also the presence of acetate ions seems to play a leading role in determining the formation of the trinuclear triangular arrangement, as indicated by the formation of a mononuclear derivative, [Cu(CF3COO) 2(Hpz)]2 (compound 12), in the reaction of copper(II) trifluoroacetate with pyrazole. Compounds 1-3, as well as some other mono- and dinuclear copper(II)-substituted pyrazole complexes, have been tested as catalyst precursors in cyclopropanation reaction, observing the formation of products in a syn:anti ratio opposite that normally reported

Beyond Sentinel Lymph Node: Outcomes of Indocyanine Green-Guided Pelvic Lymphadenectomy in Endometrial and Cervical Cancer

Background: The aim of our study was to compare the number of lymph nodes removed during indocyanine green (ICG)-guided laparoscopic/robotic pelvic lymphadenectomy with standard systematic lymphadenectomy in endometrial cancer (EC) and cervical cancer (CC). Methods: This is a multicenter retrospective comparative study (Clinical Trial ID: NCT04246580; updated on 31 January 2023). Women affected by EC and CC who underwent laparoscopic/robotic systematic pelvic lymphadenectomy, with (cases) or without (controls) the use of ICG tracer injection within the uterine cervix, were included in the study. Results: The two groups were homogeneous for age (p = 0.08), Body Mass Index, International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stages (p = 0.41 for EC; p = 0.17 for CC), median estimated blood loss (p = 0.76), median operative time (p = 0.59), and perioperative complications (p = 0.66). Nevertheless, the number of lymph nodes retrieved during surgery was significantly higher (p = 0.005) in the ICG group (n = 18) compared with controls (n = 16). Conclusions: The accurate and precise dissection achieved with the use of the ICG-guided procedure was associated with a higher number of lymph nodes removed in the case of systematic pelvic lymphadenectomy for EC and CC