Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain.

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each others views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management. A case study in the middle Guadiana basin, Spain.

The objective of this research was the implementation of a participatory process for the development of a tool to support decision making in water management. The process carried out aims at attaining an improved understanding of the water system and an encouragement of the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders to build a shared vision of the system. In addition, the process intends to identify impacts of possible solutions to given problems, which will help to take decisions

The use of participatory object-oriented Bayesian networks and agro-economic models for groundwater management in Spain

This paper describes the development of a participatory decision support system for water management in the Upper Guadiana basin in central Spain where there has long been competition for groundwater resources between the agricultural sector and the environment. In the last few decades the rapid development of irrigation has led to the over-exploitation of the Mancha Occidental aquifer, the main water source in the area; this in turn has led to the loss of ecologically important wetlands. Against this background the River Basin Authority (RBA) has designed a new water management plan aimed at reducing water consumption. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of these measures on both the environment and the agricultural sector. To this end stakeholders have been invited to actively participate in the development of a decision support system (DSS) based on the combination of an agro-economic model and an object-oriented Bayesian network. This DSS has been used to evaluate the trade-off between agriculture and the environment for different management options at different scales. Results indicate that achieving even a partial recovery of the aquifer water levels will require strict enforcement by the RBA of water restrictions on farmers combined with a high offer price for the purchase of water rights. However, compliance with water restrictions inevitably leads to losses in farm income, especially in small vineyard farms, unless additional measures are taken to compensate for those potential losses. The purchase of water rights alone is insufficient to ensure the recovery of water levels; accompanying measures included in the new regional management plan will also need to be undertaken

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws

Application of Bayesian Networks to the Upper Guadiana Basin

The need for more stakeholder participation is becoming increasingly important in natural resource management and for water resources in particular. There are a number of methods to facilitate the participatory process but in many cases the quality of these methods is difficult to evaluate because of the lack of appropriate benchmarks. Therefore there is a need of researches evaluating participatory process with clear evaluation criteria. This paper describes the development of a participatory decision support system based on Bayesian networks (Bns) and evaluates the implementation of the methodology using selected criteria. The work has been conducted in the Upper Guadiana Basin (UGB) in central Spain, a site of serious water management conflict, where groundwater-based irrigation is the main water consumer, accounting for 95% of the total uses. The uncontrolled exploitation of groundwater resources along several decades has led to an important environmental degradation and significant conflicts among stakeholder groups. The need to find solutions is becoming more urgent since the implementation of the Water Framework requires a good state of water ecosystems in the short term. The participatory building of Bayesian networks was lead to three-fold objectives: (1) To develop a DSS in the UGB, which allows the impacts of different water management options on the groundwater levels and agricultural economy to be evaluated. (2) To improve the knowledge of key water users and provide a platform for dialogue among stakeholders. (3) To evaluate the ability of Bns to provide support in complex conflict situations and as a means to more effectively engage stakeholders in the decision making process. The results obtained show that, in this context, the elaboration of a Bayesian network requires simplification of the problem, which helps stakeholders to understand the elements involved in the problem and the relationships among them. In addition to this, Bayesian networks have proved to be a good tool to deal with stakeholder participation, due to their defined structured elaboration process

Evaluation of Bayesian Networks in Participatory Water Resources Management, Upper Guadiana Basin, Spain

Stakeholder participation is becoming increasingly important in water resources management. In participatory processes, stakeholders contribute by putting forward their own perspective, and they benefit by enhancing their understanding of the factors involved in decision making. A diversity of modeling tools can be used to facilitate participatory processes. Bayesian networks are well suited to this task for a variety of reasons, including their ability to structure discussions and visual appeal. This research focuses on developing and testing a set of evaluation criteria for public participation. The advantages and limitations of these criteria are discussed in the light of a specific participatory modeling initiative. Modeling work was conducted in the Upper Guadiana Basin in central Spain, where uncontrolled groundwater extraction is responsible for wetland degradation and conflicts between farmers, water authorities, and environmentalists. Finding adequate solutions to the problem is urgent because the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive requires all aquatic ecosystems to be in a “good ecological state” within a relatively short time frame. Stakeholder evaluation highlights the potential of Bayesian networks to support public participation processes

CSVS, a crowdsourcing database of the Spanish population genetic variability

The knowledge of the genetic variability of the local population is of utmost importance in personalized medicine and has been revealed as a critical factor for the discovery of new disease variants. Here, we present the Collaborative Spanish Variability Server (CSVS), which currently contains more than 2000 genomes and exomes of unrelated Spanish individuals. This database has been generated in a collaborative crowdsourcing effort collecting sequencing data produced by local genomic projects and for other purposes. Sequences have been grouped by ICD10 upper categories. A web interface allows querying the database removing one or more ICD10 categories. In this way, aggregated counts of allele frequencies of the pseudo-control Spanish population can be obtained for diseases belonging to the category removed. Interestingly, in addition to pseudo-control studies, some population studies can be made, as, for example, prevalence of pharmacogenomic variants, etc. In addition, this genomic data has been used to define the first Spanish Genome Reference Panel (SGRP1.0) for imputation. This is the first local repository of variability entirely produced by a crowdsourcing effort and constitutes an example for future initiatives to characterize local variabilityworldwide. CSVS is also part of the GA4GH Beacon network.Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness SAF2017-88908-R PT17/0009/0006 PI19/00321 CIBERER ACCI-06/07/0036 PI14-948 PI171659Regional Government of Madrid, RAREGenomicsCM B2017/BMD3721 B2017/BMD-3721European Union (EU)European Union (EU) 676559University Chair UAM-IIS-FJD of Genomic MedicineRamon Areces Foundatio

A crowdsourcing database for the copy-number variation of the spanish population

Background: Despite being a very common type of genetic variation, the distribution of copy-number variations (CNVs) in the population is still poorly understood. The knowledge of the genetic variability, especially at the level of the local population, is a critical factor for distinguishing pathogenic from non-pathogenic variation in the discovery of new disease variants. Results: Here, we present the SPAnish Copy Number Alterations Collaborative Server (SPACNACS), which currently contains copy number variation profiles obtained from more than 400 genomes and exomes of unrelated Spanish individuals. By means of a collaborative crowdsourcing effort whole genome and whole exome sequencing data, produced by local genomic projects and for other purposes, is continuously collected. Once checked both, the Spanish ancestry and the lack of kinship with other individuals in the SPACNACS, the CNVs are inferred for these sequences and they are used to populate the database. A web interface allows querying the database with different filters that include ICD10 upper categories. This allows discarding samples from the disease under study and obtaining pseudo-control CNV profiles from the local population. We also show here additional studies on the local impact of CNVs in some phenotypes and on pharmacogenomic variants. SPACNACS can be accessed at: http://csvs.clinbioinfosspa.es/spacnacs/. Conclusion: SPACNACS facilitates disease gene discovery by providing detailed information of the local variability of the population and exemplifies how to reuse genomic data produced for other purposes to build a local reference database.This work is supported by Grants PID2020-117979RB-I00 from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation; by the Institute of Health Carlos III (project IMPaCT-Data, exp. IMP/00019, IMP/00009 and PI20/01305), co-funded by the European Union, European Regional Development Fund (ERDF, “A way to make Europe”)

A crowdsourcing database for the copy-number variation of the Spanish population

Background: Despite being a very common type of genetic variation, the distribution of copy-number variations (CNVs) in the population is still poorly understood. The knowledge of the genetic variability, especially at the level of the local population, is a critical factor for distinguishing pathogenic from non-pathogenic variation in the discovery of new disease variants. Results: Here, we present the SPAnish Copy Number Alterations Collaborative Server (SPACNACS), which currently contains copy number variation profiles obtained from more than 400 genomes and exomes of unrelated Spanish individuals. By means of a collaborative crowdsourcing effort whole genome and whole exome sequencing data, produced by local genomic projects and for other purposes, is continuously collected. Once checked both, the Spanish ancestry and the lack of kinship with other individuals in the SPACNACS, the CNVs are inferred for these sequences and they are used to populate the database. A web interface allows querying the database with different filters that include ICD10 upper categories. This allows discarding samples from the disease under study and obtaining pseudo-control CNV profiles from the local population. We also show here additional studies on the local impact of CNVs in some phenotypes and on pharmacogenomic variants. SPACNACS can be accessed at: http://csvs.clinbioinfosspa.es/spacnacs/. Conclusion: SPACNACS facilitates disease gene discovery by providing detailed information of the local variability of the population and exemplifies how to reuse genomic data produced for other purposes to build a local reference database