What You Find Depends on How You Measure It: Reactivity of Response Scales Measuring Predecisional Information Distortion in Medical Diagnosis

“Predecisional information distortion” occurs when decision makers evaluate new information in a way that is biased towards their leading option. The phenomenon is well established, as is the method typically used to measure it, termed “stepwise evolution of preference” (SEP). An inadequacy of this method has recently come to the fore: it measures distortion as the total advantage afforded a leading option over its competitor, and therefore it cannot differentiate between distortion to strengthen a leading option (“proleader” distortion) and distortion to weaken a trailing option (“antitrailer” distortion). To address this, recent research introduced new response scales to SEP. We explore whether and how these new response scales might influence the very proleader and antitrailer processes that they were designed to capture (“reactivity”). We used the SEP method with concurrent verbal reporting: fifty family physicians verbalized their thoughts as they evaluated patient symptoms and signs (“cues”) in relation to two competing diagnostic hypotheses. Twenty-five physicians evaluated each cue using the response scale traditional to SEP (a single response scale, returning a single measure of distortion); the other twenty-five did so using the response scales introduced in recent studies (two separate response scales, returning two separate measures of distortion: proleader and antitrailer). We measured proleader and antitrailer processes in verbalizations, and compared verbalizations in the single-scale and separate-scales groups. Response scales did not appear to affect proleader processes: the two groups of physicians were equally likely to bolster their leading diagnosis verbally. Response scales did, however, appear to affect antitrailer processes: the two groups denigrated their trailing diagnosis verbally to differing degrees. Our findings suggest that the response scales used to measure information distortion might influence its constituent processes, limiting their generalizability across and beyond experimental studies

Modelling the nucleon wave function from soft and hard processes

Current light-cone wave functions for the nucleon are unsatisfactory since they are in conflict with the data of the nucleon's Dirac form factor at large momentum transfer. Therefore, we attempt a determination of a new wave function respecting theoretical ideas on its parameterization and satisfying the following constraints: It should provide a soft Feynman contribution to the proton's form factor in agreement with data; it should be consistent with current parameterizations of the valence quark distribution functions and lastly it should provide an acceptable value for the \jp \to N \bar N decay width. The latter process is calculated within the modified perturbative approach to hard exclusive reactions. A simultaneous fit to the three sets of data leads to a wave function whose $x$-dependent part, the distribution amplitude, shows the same type of asymmetry as those distribution amplitudes constrained by QCD sum rules. The asymmetry is however much more moderate as in those amplitudes. Our distribution amplitude resembles the asymptotic one in shape but the position of the maximum is somewhat shifted.Comment: 32 pages RevTex + PS-file with 5 figures in uu-encoded, compressed fil

Comparing the frequency of common genetic variants and haplotypes between carriers and non-carriers of BRCA1 and BRCA2 deleterious mutations in Australian women diagnosed with breast cancer before 40 years of age

BACKGROUND: BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations are found in a proportion of families with multiple early-onset breast cancers. There are a large number of different deleterious mutations in both genes, none of which would be detectable using standard genetic association studies. Single common variants and haplotypes of common variants may capture groups of deleterious mutations since some low prevalence haplotypes of common variants occur more frequently among chromosomes that carry rare, deleterious mutations than chromosomes that do not. METHODS: DNA sequence data for BRCA1 and BRCA2 was obtained from 571 participants from the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study. Genetic variants were classified as either deleterious mutations or common genetic variants. Variants tagging common polymorphisms were selected and haplotypes resolved using Haploview. Their frequency was compared to those with and without deleterious mutations using a permutation test. RESULTS: A common genetic variant in BRCA1 (3232A > G) was found to be over-represented in deleterious mutation carriers (p = 0.05), whereas a common genetic variant in BRCA2 (1342A > C) occurred less frequently in deleterious mutation carriers (p = 0.04). All four of the common BRCA1 variants used to form haplotypes occurred more frequently in the deleterious mutation carriers when compared to the non-carriers, but there was no evidence of a difference in the distributions between the two groups (p = 0.34). In BRCA2, all four common variants were found to occur less frequently in the deleterious mutation carriers when compared to non-carriers, but the evidence for difference in the distribution between the two groups was weak (p = 0.16). Several less common haplotypes of common BRCA1 variants were found to be over-represented among deleterious mutation carriers but there was no evidence for this at the population level. In BRCA2, only the most common haplotype was found to occur more frequently in deleterious mutation carriers, with again no evidence at the population level. CONCLUSIONS: We observed differences in the frequency of common genetic variants of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 and their haplotypes between early-onset breast cancer cases who did and did not carry deleterious mutations in these genes. Although our data provide only weak evidence for a difference in frequencies at the population level, the number of deleterious mutation carriers was low and the results may yet be substantiated in a larger study using pooled data

Dispelling urban myths about default uncertainty factors in chemical risk assessment - Sufficient protection against mixture effects?

© 2013 Martin et al.; licensee BioMed Central LtdThis article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Assessing the detrimental health effects of chemicals requires the extrapolation of experimental data in animals to human populations. This is achieved by applying a default uncertainty factor of 100 to doses not found to be associated with observable effects in laboratory animals. It is commonly assumed that the toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic sub-components of this default uncertainty factor represent worst-case scenarios and that the multiplication of those components yields conservative estimates of safe levels for humans. It is sometimes claimed that this conservatism also offers adequate protection from mixture effects. By analysing the evolution of uncertainty factors from a historical perspective, we expose that the default factor and its sub-components are intended to represent adequate rather than worst-case scenarios. The intention of using assessment factors for mixture effects was abandoned thirty years ago. It is also often ignored that the conservatism (or otherwise) of uncertainty factors can only be considered in relation to a defined level of protection. A protection equivalent to an effect magnitude of 0.001-0.0001% over background incidence is generally considered acceptable. However, it is impossible to say whether this level of protection is in fact realised with the tolerable doses that are derived by employing uncertainty factors. Accordingly, it is difficult to assess whether uncertainty factors overestimate or underestimate the sensitivity differences in human populations. It is also often not appreciated that the outcome of probabilistic approaches to the multiplication of sub-factors is dependent on the choice of probability distributions. Therefore, the idea that default uncertainty factors are overly conservative worst-case scenarios which can account both for the lack of statistical power in animal experiments and protect against potential mixture effects is ill-founded. We contend that precautionary regulation should provide an incentive to generate better data and recommend adopting a pragmatic, but scientifically better founded approach to mixture risk assessment. © 2013 Martin et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.Oak Foundatio

Abnormalities in autonomic function in obese boys at-risk for insulin resistance and obstructive sleep apnea.

Study objectivesCurrent evidence in adults suggests that, independent of obesity, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) can lead to autonomic dysfunction and impaired glucose metabolism, but these relationships are less clear in children. The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations among OSA, glucose metabolism, and daytime autonomic function in obese pediatric subjects.MethodsTwenty-three obese boys participated in: overnight polysomnography; a frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test; and recordings of spontaneous cardiorespiratory data in both the supine (baseline) and standing (sympathetic stimulus) postures.ResultsBaseline systolic blood pressure and reactivity of low-frequency heart rate variability to postural stress correlated with insulin resistance, increased fasting glucose, and reduced beta-cell function, but not OSA severity. Baroreflex sensitivity reactivity was reduced with sleep fragmentation, but only for subjects with low insulin sensitivity and/or low first-phase insulin response to glucose.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that vascular sympathetic activity impairment is more strongly affected by metabolic dysfunction than by OSA severity, while blunted vagal autonomic function associated with sleep fragmentation in OSA is enhanced when metabolic dysfunction is also present

The descriptive content of names as predicate modifiers

In this paper I argue that descriptive content associated with a proper name can serve as a truth-conditionally relevant adjunct and be an additional contribution of the name to the truth-conditions. Definite descriptions the so-and-so associated by speakers with a proper name can be used as qualifying prepositional phrases as so-and-so, so sentences containing a proper name NN is doing something could be understood as NN is doing something as NN (which means as so-and-so). Used as an adjunct, the descriptive content of a proper name expresses the additional circumstances of an action (a manner, reason, goal, time or purpose) and constitute a part of a predicate. I argue that qualifying prepositional phrases should be analyzed as predicate modifiers and propose a formal representation of modified predicates. The additional truth-conditional relevance of the descriptive content of a proper name helps to explain the phenomenon of the substitution failure of coreferential names in simple sentences

Seasonal and Long-Term Changes in Relative Abundance of Bull Sharks from a Tourist Shark Feeding Site in Fiji

Shark tourism has become increasingly popular, but remains controversial because of major concerns originating from the need of tour operators to use bait or chum to reliably attract sharks. We used direct underwater sampling to document changes in bull shark Carcharhinus leucas relative abundance at the Shark Reef Marine Reserve, a shark feeding site in Fiji, and the reproductive cycle of the species in Fijian waters. Between 2003 and 2009, the total number of C. leucas counted on each day ranged from 0 to 40. Whereas the number of C. leucas counted at the feeding site increased over the years, shark numbers decreased over the course of a calendar year with fewest animals counted in November. Externally visible reproductive status information indicates that the species' seasonal departure from the feeding site may be related to reproductive activity

Ab initio alpha-alpha scattering

Processes involving alpha particles and alpha-like nuclei comprise a major part of stellar nucleosynthesis and hypothesized mechanisms for thermonuclear supernovae. In an effort towards understanding alpha processes from first principles, we describe in this letter the first ab initio calculation of alpha-alpha scattering. We use lattice effective field theory to describe the low-energy interactions of nucleons and apply a technique called the adiabatic projection method to reduce the eight-body system to an effective two-cluster system. We find good agreement between lattice results and experimental phase shifts for S-wave and D-wave scattering. The computational scaling with particle number suggests that alpha processes involving heavier nuclei are also within reach in the near future.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

The extraordinary evolutionary history of the reticuloendotheliosis viruses

The reticuloendotheliosis viruses (REVs) comprise several closely related amphotropic retroviruses isolated from birds. These viruses exhibit several highly unusual characteristics that have not so far been adequately explained, including their extremely close relationship to mammalian retroviruses, and their presence as endogenous sequences within the genomes of certain large DNA viruses. We present evidence for an iatrogenic origin of REVs that accounts for these phenomena. Firstly, we identify endogenous retroviral fossils in mammalian genomes that share a unique recombinant structure with REVs—unequivocally demonstrating that REVs derive directly from mammalian retroviruses. Secondly, through sequencing of archived REV isolates, we confirm that contaminated Plasmodium lophurae stocks have been the source of multiple REV outbreaks in experimentally infected birds. Finally, we show that both phylogenetic and historical evidence support a scenario wherein REVs originated as mammalian retroviruses that were accidentally introduced into avian hosts in the late 1930s, during experimental studies of P. lophurae, and subsequently integrated into the fowlpox virus (FWPV) and gallid herpesvirus type 2 (GHV-2) genomes, generating recombinant DNA viruses that now circulate in wild birds and poultry. Our findings provide a novel perspective on the origin and evolution of REV, and indicate that horizontal gene transfer between virus families can expand the impact of iatrogenic transmission events