BaSIS-Net: From point estimate to predictive distribution in neural networks - a Bayesian sequential importance sampling framework

Data-driven Deep Learning (DL) models have revolutionized autonomous systems, but ensuring their safety and reliability necessitates the assessment of predictive confidence or uncertainty. Bayesian DL provides a principled approach to quantify uncertainty via probability density functions defined over model parameters. However, the exact solution is intractable for most DL models, and the approximation methods, often based on heuristics, suffer from scalability issues and stringent distribution assumptions and may lack theoretical guarantees. This work develops a Sequential Importance Sampling framework that approximates the posterior probability density function through weighted samples (or particles), which can be used to find the mean, variance, or higher-order moments of the posterior distribution. We demonstrate that propagating particles, which capture information about the higher-order moments, through the layers of the DL model results in increased robustness to natural and malicious noise (adversarial attacks). The variance computed from these particles effectively quantifies the model’s decision uncertainty, demonstrating well-calibrated and accurate predictive confidence

Hospital Antibiotic Use during COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents a major issue in healthcare being correlated to global inappropriate use of antibiotics. The aim of this study was to compare the data on hospital antibiotic consumption in 2020–2021 with those related to 2019 in order to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on antibiotic prescriptions and appropriate use at national level and in the different geographical areas. To estimate the consumption of antibiotics, two indicators were calculated: “number of DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day” and “number of DDD per 100 hospitalisation days”. Consumption data on antibiotics dispensed in public health facilities were based on the Italian “traceability of medicines” information flow. Data on hospitalisation days were extracted from the Italian “hospital discharge form” flow. Pearson correlation analysis was performed between the number of patients hospitalised for COVID-19 and the consumption of antibiotics in public healthcare facilities. During 2020, about 1.7 DDD/1000 inhabitants per day (12.3% of the overall consumption of reimbursed antibiotics) were dispensed exclusively in Italian hospitals (+0.8% compared to 2019). Considering the number of DDD per 100 hospitalisation days, consumption increased by 19.3% in 2020 compared to 2019. Comparing the first semester of 2020 and 2019, a decrease of DDD/1000 inhabitants per day was observed (−1.6%) at national level, with opposite trends in the different geographical areas; an increase in the use of azithromycin and carbapenems was also observed, with a stable consumption of third-generation cephalosporins. The use of antibiotics in the second semester of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019 showed a clear reduction at national level (−8.5%), appreciable to a similar extent in all geographic areas. In the first semester of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020, there was a huge reduction (−31.4%) in consumption at national level. However, the variations were heterogeneous between different geographical areas. To our knowledge, this study represents the most comprehensive analysis performed on antibiotic consumption data in hospital settings in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic to date. Despite international and national guideline recommendations, a substantial overall increase in antibiotic prescriptions was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with variability in terms of geographical distribution and prescription strategies. These findings may be related to the dichotomy between perceived and real significance of guidelines, expert panels, or consensus. Therefore, new approaches or strategies to antimicrobial stewardship should be proposed

Ceftolozane/tazobactam for the treatment of serious Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections: a multicentre nationwide clinical experience

This study describes the largest clinical experience using ceftolozane/tazobactam (C/T) for different Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections. A retrospective study was performed at 22 hospitals in Italy (June 2016\u2013March 2018). All adult patients treated with 654 days of C/T were enrolled. Successful clinical outcome was defined as complete resolution of clinical signs/symptoms related to P. aeruginosa infection and lack of microbiological evidence of infection. C/T treatment was documented in 101 patients with diverse infections, including nosocomial pneumonia (31.7%), acute bacterial skin and skin-structure infection (20.8%), complicated UTI (13.9%), complicated IAI (12.9%), bone infection (8.9%) and primary bacteraemia (5.9%). Over one-half of P. aeruginosa strains were XDR (50.5%), with 78.2% of isolates resistant to at least one carbapenem. C/T was used as first-line therapy in 39 patients (38.6%). When used as second-line or later, the most common reasons for discontinuation of previous antibiotics were in vitro resistance of P. aeruginosa and clinical failure of previous therapy. Concomitant antibiotics were reported in 35.6% of patients. C/T doses were 1.5 g q8h in 70 patients (69.3%) and 3 g q8h in 31 patients (30.7%); median duration of C/T therapy was 14 days. Overall clinical success was 83.2%. Significant lower success rates were observed in patients with sepsis or receiving continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Mild adverse events were reported in only three patients. C/T demonstrated a favourable safety and tolerability profile regardless of the infection type. Clinicians should be aware of the risk of clinical failure with C/T therapy in septic patients receiving CRRT

Safety and Efficacy of a Single Procedure of Extraction and Reimplantation of Infected Cardiovascular Implantable Electronic Device (CIED) in Comparison with Deferral Timing: An Observational Retrospective Multicentric Study

(1) Background: Infections are among the most frequent and life-threatening complications of cardiovascular implantable electronic device (CIED) implantation. The aim of this study is to compare the outcome and safety of a single-procedure device extraction and contralateral implantation versus the standard-of-care (SoC) two-stage replacement for infected CIEDs. (2) Methods: We retrospectively included 66 patients with CIED infections who were treated at two Italian hospitals. Of the 66 patients enrolled in the study, 27 underwent a single procedure, whereas 39 received SoC treatment. All patients were followed up for 12 months after the procedure. (3) Results: Considering those lost to follow-up, there were no differences in the mortality rates between the two cohorts, with survival rates of 81.5% in the single-procedure group and 84.6% in the SoC group (p = 0.075). (4) Conclusions: Single-procedure reimplantation associated with an active antibiofilm therapy may be a feasible and effective therapeutic option in CIED-dependent and frail patients. Further studies are warranted to define the best treatment regimen and strategies to select patients suitable for the single-procedure reimplantation

Incidence and prognosis of ventilator-associated pneumonia in critically ill patients with covid-19: A multicenter study

The primary objective of this multicenter, observational, retrospective study was to assess the incidence rate of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in intensive care units (ICU). The secondary objective was to assess predictors of 30-day case-fatality of VAP. From 15 February to 15 May 2020, 586 COVID-19 patients were admitted to the participating ICU. Of them, 171 developed VAP (29%) and were included in the study. The incidence rate of VAP was of 18 events per 1000 ventilator days (95% confidence intervals [CI] 16–21). Deep respiratory cultures were available and positive in 77/171 patients (45%). The most frequent organisms were Pseudomonas aeruginosa (27/77, 35%) and Staphylococcus aureus (18/77, 23%). The 30-day case-fatality of VAP was 46% (78/171). In multivariable analysis, septic shock at VAP onset (odds ratio [OR] 3.30, 95% CI 1.43–7.61, p = 0.005) and acute respiratory distress syndrome at VAP onset (OR 13.21, 95% CI 3.05–57.26, p < 0.001) were associated with fatality. In conclusion, VAP is frequent in critically ill COVID-19 patients. The related high fatality is likely the sum of the unfavorable prognostic impacts of the underlying viral and the superimposed bacterial diseases

Use of colistin in adult patients: A cross-sectional study

Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess colistin use in a country endemic for multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (MDR-GNB). Methods: Colistin prescription patterns were evaluated in 22 Italian centres. Factors associated with use of colistin in combination with other anti-MDR-GNB agents were also assessed. Results: A total of 221 adults receiving colistin were included in the study. Their median age was 64 years (interquartile range 52\u201373 years) and 134 (61%) were male. Colistin was mostly administered intravenously (203/221; 92%) and mainly for targeted therapy (168/221; 76%). The most frequent indications for colistin therapy were bloodstream infection and lower respiratory tract infection. Intravenous colistin was administered in combination with at least another anti-MDR-GNB agent in 80% of cases (163/203). A loading dose of 9 MU of colistimethate was administered in 79% of patients receiving i.v. colistin and adequate maintenance doses in 85%. In multivariable analysis, empirical therapy [odds ratio (OR) = 3.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24\u20138.53;P = 0.017] and targeted therapy for carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales infection (OR = 4.76, 95% CI 1.69\u201313.43; P = 0.003) were associated with use of colistin in combination with other agents, whilst chronic renal failure (OR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.17\u20130.88; P = 0.024) was associated with use of colistin monotherapy. Conclusion: Colistin remains an important option for severe MDR-GNB infections when other treatments are not available. Despite inherent difficulties in optimising its use owing to peculiar pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic characteristics, colistin was mostly used appropriately in a country endemic for MDR-GNB

Risk Factors for Intra-Abdominal Candidiasis in Intensive Care Units: Results from EUCANDICU Study

Introduction: Intra-abdominal infections represent the second most frequently acquired infection in the intensive care unit (ICU), with mortality rates ranging from 20% to 50%. Candida spp. may be responsible for up to 10–30% of cases. This study assesses risk factors for development of intra-abdominal candidiasis (IAC) among patients admitted to ICU. Methods: We performed a case–control study in 26 European ICUs during the period January 2015–December 2016. Patients at least 18 years old who developed an episode of microbiologically documented IAC during their stay in the ICU (at least 48 h after admission) served as the case cohort. The control group consisted of adult patients who did not develop episodes of IAC during ICU admission. Matching was performed at a ratio of 1:1 according to time at risk (i.e. controls had to have at least the same length of ICU stay as their matched cases prior to IAC onset), ICU ward and period of study. Results: During the study period, 101 case patients with a diagnosis of IAC were included in the study. On univariate analysis, severe hepatic failure, prior receipt of antibiotics, prior receipt of parenteral nutrition, abdominal drain, prior bacterial infection, anastomotic leakage, recurrent gastrointestinal perforation, prior receipt of antifungal drugs and higher median number of abdominal surgical interventions were associated with IAC development. On multivariate analysis, recurrent gastrointestinal perforation (OR 13.90; 95% CI 2.65–72.82, p = 0.002), anastomotic leakage (OR 6.61; 95% CI 1.98–21.99, p = 0.002), abdominal drain (OR 6.58; 95% CI 1.73–25.06, p = 0.006), prior receipt of antifungal drugs (OR 4.26; 95% CI 1.04–17.46, p = 0.04) or antibiotics (OR 3.78; 95% CI 1.32–10.52, p = 0.01) were independently associated with IAC. Conclusions: Gastrointestinal perforation, anastomotic leakage, abdominal drain and prior receipt of antifungals or antibiotics may help to identify critically ill patients with higher probability of developing IAC. Prospective studies are needed to identify which patients will benefit from early antifungal treatment

Metabolic Syndrome (MetS), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), and Frailty: Is There any Room for Good Outcome in the Elderly Undergoing Emergency Surgery?

Background: Patients with MetS or SIRS experience higher rates of mortality and morbidity, across both cardiac and noncardiac surgery. Frailty assessment has acquired increasing importance in recent years as it predisposes elderly patients to a worse outcome. The aim of our study was to investigate the influence of MetS, SIRS, and with or without frailty on elderly patients undergoing emergency surgical procedures. Methods: We analyzed data of all patients with nonmalignant diseases requiring an emergency surgical procedure from January 2017 to December 2020. The occurrence of MetS was identified using modified definition criteria used by the NCEP-ATP III Expert Panel: obesity, hypertension, diabetes, or if medication for high triglycerides or for low HDL cholesterol was taken. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) was evaluated according to the original consensus study (Sepsis-1). The frailty profile was investigated by the 5-modified Frailty Index (5-mFI) and the Emergency Surgery Frailty Index (EmSFI). Postoperative complications have been reported and categorized according to the Clavien–Dindo (C–D) classification system. Morbidity and mortality have been mainly considered as the 30-day standard period definition. Results: Of the 2,318 patients included in this study, 1,010 (43.6%) fulfilled the criteria for MetS (MetsG group). Both 5-Items score and EmsFI showed greater fragility in patients with MetS. All patients with MetS showed more frequently a CACI index greater than 6. The occurrence of SIRS was higher in MetSG. LOS was longer in patients with MetS (MetSG 11.4 ± 12 days vs. n-MetSG 10.5 ± 10.2 days, p = 0.046). MetSG has a significantly higher rate of morbidity (353 (35.%) vs. 385 (29.4%), p = 0.005). The mortality rate in patients with MetS (98/1010, 10%) was similar to that in patients without it (129/1308, 10%). Considering patients with MetS who developed SIRS and those who had frailty or both, the occurrence of these conditions was associated with a higher rate of morbidity and mortality. Conclusion: Impact of MetS and SIRS on elderly surgical patient outcomes has yet to be fully elucidated. The present study showed a 43.6% incidence of MetS in the elderly population. In conclusion, age per se should be not considered anymore as the main variable to estimate patient outcomes, while MetS and Frailty should have always a pivotal role

Incidence and outcome of invasive candidiasis in intensive care units (ICUs) in Europe: results of the EUCANDICU project

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to assess the cumulative incidence of invasive candidiasis (IC) in intensive care units (ICUs) in Europe. METHODS: A multinational, multicenter, retrospective study was conducted in 23 ICUs in 9 European countries, representing the first phase of the candidemia/intra-abdominal candidiasis in European ICU project (EUCANDICU). RESULTS: During the study period, 570 episodes of ICU-acquired IC were observed, with a cumulative incidence of 7.07 episodes per 1000 ICU admissions, with important between-center variability. Separated, non-mutually exclusive cumulative incidences of candidemia and IAC were 5.52 and 1.84 episodes per 1000 ICU admissions, respectively. Crude 30-day mortality was 42%. Age (odds ratio [OR] 1.04 per year, 95% CI 1.02-1.06, p < 0.001), severe hepatic failure (OR 3.25, 95% 1.31-8.08, p 0.011), SOFA score at the onset of IC (OR 1.11 per point, 95% CI 1.04-1.17, p 0.001), and septic shock (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.24-3.63, p 0.006) were associated with increased 30-day mortality in a secondary, exploratory analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of IC in 23 European ICUs was 7.07 episodes per 1000 ICU admissions. Future in-depth analyses will allow explaining part of the observed between-center variability, with the ultimate aim of helping to improve local infection control and antifungal stewardship projects and interventions

Gastro-intestinal emergency surgery: Evaluation of morbidity and mortality. Protocol of a prospective, multicenter study in Italy for evaluating the burden of abdominal emergency surgery in different age groups. (The GESEMM study)

Gastrointestinal emergencies (GE) are frequently encountered in emergency department (ED), and patients can present with wide-ranging symptoms. more than 3 million patients admitted to US hospitals each year for EGS diagnoses, more than the sum of all new cancer diagnoses. In addition to the complexity of the urgent surgical patient (often suffering from multiple co-morbidities), there is the unpredictability and the severity of the event. In the light of this, these patients need a rapid decision-making process that allows a correct diagnosis and an adequate and timely treatment. The primary endpoint of this Italian nationwide study is to analyze the clinicopathological findings, management strategies and short-term outcomes of gastrointestinal emergency procedures performed in patients over 18. Secondary endpoints will be to evaluate to analyze the prognostic role of existing risk-scores to define the most suitable scoring system for gastro-intestinal surgical emergency. The primary outcomes are 30-day overall postoperative morbidity and mortality rates. Secondary outcomes are 30-day postoperative morbidity and mortality rates, stratified for each procedure or cause of intervention, length of hospital stay, admission and length of stay in ICU, and place of discharge (home or rehabilitation or care facility). In conclusion, to improve the level of care that should be reserved for these patients, we aim to analyze the clinicopathological findings, management strategies and short-term outcomes of gastrointestinal emergency procedures performed in patients over 18, to analyze the prognostic role of existing risk-scores and to define new tools suitable for EGS. This process could ameliorate outcomes and avoid futile treatments. These results may potentially influence the survival of many high-risk EGS procedure