A Ca2+^{2+} puff model based on integrodifferential equations

The calcium (Ca$^{2+}$) signalling system is important for many cellular processes within the human body. Signals are transmitted within the cell by releasing Ca$^{2+}$ from the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) into the cytosol via clusters of Ca$^{2+}$ channels. Mathematical models of Ca$^{2+}$ release via inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate receptors (IP$_{3}$R) help with understanding underlying Ca$^{2+}$ dynamics but data-driven modelling of stochastic Ca$^{2+}$ release events, known as Ca$^{2+}$ puffs, is a difficult challenge. Parameterising Markov models for representing the IP$_{3}$R with steady-state single channel data obtained at fixed combinations of the ligands Ca$^{2+}$ and inositol-trisphosphate (IP$_{3}$) has previously been demonstrated to be insufficient. However, by extending an IP$_{3}$R model based on steady-state data with an integral term that incorporates the delayed response of the channel to varying Ca$^{2+}$ concentrations we succeed in generating realistic Ca$^{2+}$ puffs. By interpreting the integral term as a weighted average of Ca$^{2+}$ concentrations that extend over a time interval of length $\tau$ into the past we conclude that the IP$_{3}$R requires a certain amount of memory of past ligand concentrations.Comment: 31 pages, 8 figures, 1 tabl

Predicting the outcomes of new short-course regimens for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis using intrahost and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling

Background: Short-course regimens for multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are urgently needed. Limited data suggest that bedaquiline (BDQ), when used in conjunction with other drugs, improves treatment outcomes and potentially shorten MDR-TB treatment duration to less than six months. Further assessment on the efficacy of short-course BDQ-containing regimens is required before recommendations can be made about its value in MDR-TB treatment. Mathematical models combining drug pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamics (PK-PD) with the intrahost immune response can provide a platform to investigate different dosing strategies to identify highly effective regimens. Materials/methods: A mathematical model was developed to mimic the human immune response to TB. Major elements of the immune response to TB including macrophages, cytokines and lymphocytes were incorporated. This model was then combined with a PK-PD model to simulate various short-course BDQ-containing regimens, and estimate their anti-mycobacterial effects. These regimens consisted of an initial intensive phase with BDQ, moxifloxacin (MXF), clofazimine (CFZ), pyrazinamide (PZA), isoniazid (INH) and kanamycin (KNM), followed by a continuation phase with BDQ, MXF, CFZ and PZA. Various durations of treatment were investigated and a comparative analysis of their efficacy was undertaken in order to identify highly effective regimens. Results: We found that treatment duration for MDR-TB can be reduced to just 18 weeks while still maintaining a very high treatment success rate (100% for daily BDQ for two weeks during the intensive phase, or 95% when BDQ is given daily for one week during the intensive phase). The estimated time to bacterial clearance of these regimens ranges from 27 to 33 days. Achieving optimal exposure early, in the first four weeks of treatment, is critical for successful treatment. Intermittent dosing of MXF (three times weekly or weekly) does not compromise treatment efficacy. Conclusions: This study represents a novel approach to the global challenge of MDR-TB. Our study shows that MDR-TB treatment could potentially be further shortened to four months with BDQ. The findings provide the justification for empirical evaluation of short-course BDQ-containing regimens. If BDQ-containing regimens are found to improve outcomes then we anticipate clear cost-savings and a subsequent improvement in the efficiency of national TB programs

A deterministic model predicts the properties of stochastic calcium oscillations in airway smooth muscle cells

The inositol trisphosphate receptor ([Formula: see text]) is one of the most important cellular components responsible for oscillations in the cytoplasmic calcium concentration. Over the past decade, two major questions about the [Formula: see text] have arisen. Firstly, how best should the [Formula: see text] be modeled? In other words, what fundamental properties of the [Formula: see text] allow it to perform its function, and what are their quantitative properties? Secondly, although calcium oscillations are caused by the stochastic opening and closing of small numbers of [Formula: see text], is it possible for a deterministic model to be a reliable predictor of calcium behavior? Here, we answer these two questions, using airway smooth muscle cells (ASMC) as a specific example. Firstly, we show that periodic calcium waves in ASMC, as well as the statistics of calcium puffs in other cell types, can be quantitatively reproduced by a two-state model of the [Formula: see text], and thus the behavior of the [Formula: see text] is essentially determined by its modal structure. The structure within each mode is irrelevant for function. Secondly, we show that, although calcium waves in ASMC are generated by a stochastic mechanism, [Formula: see text] stochasticity is not essential for a qualitative prediction of how oscillation frequency depends on model parameters, and thus deterministic [Formula: see text] models demonstrate the same level of predictive capability as do stochastic models. We conclude that, firstly, calcium dynamics can be accurately modeled using simplified [Formula: see text] models, and, secondly, to obtain qualitative predictions of how oscillation frequency depends on parameters it is sufficient to use a deterministic model

Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host

The cellular adaptive immune response plays a key role in resolving influenza infection. Experiments where individuals are successively infected with different strains within a short timeframe provide insight into the underlying viral dynamics and the role of a cross-reactive immune response in resolving an acute infection. We construct a mathematical model of within-host influenza viral dynamics including three possible factors which determine the strength of the cross-reactive cellular adaptive immune response: the initial naive T cell number, the avidity of the interaction between T cells and the epitopes presented by infected cells, and the epitope abundance per infected cell. Our model explains the experimentally observed shortening of a second infection when cross-reactivity is present, and shows that memory in the cellular adaptive immune response is necessary to protect against a second infection.Comment: 35 pages, 12 figure

The Mechanisms for Within-Host Influenza Virus Control Affect Model-Based Assessment and Prediction of Antiviral Treatment

Models of within-host influenza viral dynamics have contributed to an improved understanding of viral dynamics and antiviral effects over the past decade. Existing models can be classified into two broad types based on the mechanism of viral control: models utilising target cell depletion to limit the progress of infection and models which rely on timely activation of innate and adaptive immune responses to control the infection. In this paper, we compare how two exemplar models based on these different mechanisms behave and investigate how the mechanistic difference affects the assessment and prediction of antiviral treatment. We find that the assumed mechanism for viral control strongly influences the predicted outcomes of treatment. Furthermore, we observe that for the target cell-limited model the assumed drug efficacy strongly influences the predicted treatment outcomes. The area under the viral load curve is identified as the most reliable predictor of drug efficacy, and is robust to model selection. Moreover, with support from previous clinical studies, we suggest that the target cell-limited model is more suitable for modelling in vitro assays or infection in some immunocompromised/immunosuppressed patients while the immune response model is preferred for predicting the infection/antiviral effect in immunocompetent animals/patients

Stochastic Modeling of Within-Host Dynamics of Plasmodium Falciparum

Malaria remains a major public health burden in South-East Asia and Africa. Mathematical models of within-host infection dynamics and drug action, developed in support of malaria elimination initiatives, have significantly advanced our understanding of the dynamics of infection and supported development of effective drug-treatment regimens. However, the mathematical models supporting these initiatives are predominately based on deterministic dynamics and therefore cannot capture stochastic phenomena such as extinction (no parasitized red blood cells) following treatment, with potential consequences for our interpretation of data sets in which recrudescence is observed. Here we develop a stochastic within-host infection model to study the growth, decline and possible stochastic extinction of parasitized red blood cells in malaria-infected human volunteers. We show that stochastic extinction can occur when the inoculation size is small or when the number of parasitized red blood cells reduces significantly after an antimalarial treatment. We further show that the drug related parameters, such as the maximum killing rate and half-maximum effective concentration, are the primary factors determining the probability of stochastic extinction following treatment, highlighting the importance of highly-efficacious antimalarials in increasing the probability of cure for the treatment of malaria patients

Stochastic Modeling of Within-Host Dynamics of Plasmodium Falciparum

Malaria remains a major public health burden in South-East Asia and Africa. Mathematical models of within-host infection dynamics and drug action, developed in support of malaria elimination initiatives, have significantly advanced our understanding of the dynamics of infection and supported development of effective drug-treatment regimens. However, the mathematical models supporting these initiatives are predominately based on deterministic dynamics and therefore cannot capture stochastic phenomena such as extinction (no parasitized red blood cells) following treatment, with potential consequences for our interpretation of data sets in which recrudescence is observed. Here we develop a stochastic within-host infection model to study the growth, decline and possible stochastic extinction of parasitized red blood cells in malaria-infected human volunteers. We show that stochastic extinction can occur when the inoculation size is small or when the number of parasitized red blood cells reduces significantly after an antimalarial treatment. We further show that the drug related parameters, such as the maximum killing rate and half-maximum effective concentration, are the primary factors determining the probability of stochastic extinction following treatment, highlighting the importance of highly-efficacious antimalarials in increasing the probability of cure for the treatment of malaria patients

Modelling the Effect of MUC1 on Influenza Virus Infection Kinetics and Macrophage Dynamics

MUC1 belongs to the family of cell surface (cs-) mucins. Experimental evidence indicates that its presence reduces in vivo influenza viral infection severity. However, the mechanisms by which MUC1 influences viral dynamics and the host immune response are not yet well understood, limiting our ability to predict the efficacy of potential treatments that target MUC1. To address this limitation, we use available in vivo kinetic data for both virus and macrophage populations in wildtype and MUC1 knockout mice. We apply two mathematical models of within-host influenza dynamics to this data. The models differ in how they categorise the mechanisms of viral control. Both models provide evidence that MUC1 reduces the susceptibility of epithelial cells to influenza virus and regulates macrophage recruitment. Furthermore, we predict and compare some key infection-related quantities between the two mice groups. We find that MUC1 significantly reduces the basic reproduction number of viral replication as well as the number of cumulative macrophages but has little impact on the cumulative viral load. Our analyses suggest that the viral replication rate in the early stages of infection influences the kinetics of the host immune response, with consequences for infection outcomes, such as severity. We also show that MUC1 plays a strong anti-inflammatory role in the regulation of the host immune response. This study improves our understanding of the dynamic role of MUC1 against influenza infection and may support the development of novel antiviral treatments and immunomodulators that target MUC1