Neighborhood size and local geographic variation of health and social determinants

BACKGROUND: Spatial filtering using a geographic information system (GIS) is often used to smooth health and ecological data. Smoothing disease data can help us understand local (neighborhood) geographic variation and ecological risk of diseases. Analyses that use small neighborhood sizes yield individualistic patterns and large sizes reveal the global structure of data where local variation is obscured. Therefore, choosing an optimal neighborhood size is important for understanding ecological associations with diseases. This paper uses Hartley's test of homogeneity of variance (F(max)) as a methodological solution for selecting optimal neighborhood sizes. The data from a study area in Vietnam are used to test the suitability of this method. RESULTS: The Hartley's F(max )test was applied to spatial variables for two enteric diseases and two socioeconomic determinants. Various neighbourhood sizes were tested by using a two step process to implement the F(max)test. First the variance of each neighborhood was compared to the highest neighborhood variance (upper, F(max1)) and then they were compared with the lowest neighborhood variance (lower, F(max2)). A significant value of F(max1 )indicates that the neighborhood does not reveal the global structure of data, and in contrast, a significant value in F(max2 )implies that the neighborhood data are not individualistic. The neighborhoods that are between the lower and the upper limits are the optimal neighbourhood sizes. CONCLUSION: The results of tests provide different neighbourhood sizes for different variables suggesting that optimal neighbourhood size is data dependent. In ecology, it is well known that observation scales may influence ecological inference. Therefore, selecting optimal neigborhood size is essential for understanding disease ecologies. The optimal neighbourhood selection method that is tested in this paper can be useful in health and ecological studies

Local Environmental Predictors of Cholera in Bangladesh and Vietnam

Environmental factors have been shown to be related to cholera and thus might prove useful for prediction. In Bangladesh and Vietnam, temporal cholera distributions are related to satellite-derived and in-situ environmental time series data in order to examine the relationships between cholera and the local environment. Ordered probit models examine associations in Bangladesh; probit models examine associations at 2 sites in Vietnam. Increases in ocean chlorophyll concentration are related to an increased magnitude of cholera in Bangladesh. Increases in sea surface temperature are most influential in Hue, Vietnam, whereas increases in river height have a significant role in Nha Trang, Vietnam. Cholera appearance and epidemic magnitude are related to the local environment. Local environmental parameters have consistent effects when cholera is regular and more prevalent in endemic settings, but in situations where cholera epidemics are rare there are differential environmental effects

Healthcare use for diarrhoea and dysentery in actual and hypothetical cases, Nha Trang, Viet Nam.

To better understand healthcare use for diarrhoea and dysentery in Nha Trang, Viet Nam, qualitative interviews with community residents and dysentery case studies were conducted. Findings were supplemented by a quantitative survey which asked respondents which healthcare provider their household members would use for diarrhoea or dysentery. A clear pattern of healthcare-seeking behaviours among 433 respondents emerged. More than half of the respondents self-treated initially. Medication for initial treatment was purchased from a pharmacy or with medication stored at home. Traditional home treatments were also widely used. If no improvement occurred or the symptoms were perceived to be severe, individuals would visit a healthcare facility. Private medical practitioners are playing a steadily increasing role in the Vietnamese healthcare system. Less than a quarter of diarrhoea patients initially used government healthcare providers at commune health centres, polyclinics, and hospitals, which are the only sources of data for routine public-health statistics. Given these healthcare-use patterns, reported rates could significantly underestimate the real disease burden of dysentery and diarrhoea

Adults\u27 perceived prevalence of enteric fever predicts laboratory-validated incidence of typhoid fever in children

This study was undertaken to develop a model to predict the incidence of typhoid in children based on adults’ perception of prevalence of enteric fever in the wider community. Typhoid cases among children, aged 5-15 years, from epidemic regions in five Asian countries were confirmed with a positive Salmonella Typhi culture of the blood sample. Estimates of the prevalence of enteric fever were obtained from random samples of adults in the same study sites. Regression models were used for establishing the prediction equation. The percentages of enteric fever reported by adults and cases of typhoid incidence per 100,000, detected through blood culture were 4.7 and 24.18 for Viet Nam, 3.8 and 29.20 for China, 26.3 and 180.33 for Indonesia, 66.0 and 454.15 for India, and 52.7 and 407.18 for Pakistan respectively. An established prediction equation was: incidence of typhoid (1/100,000= −2.6946 + 7.2296 × reported prevalence of enteric fever (%) (F=31.7, p2=0.992). Using adults’ perception of prevalence of disease as the basis for estimating its incidence in children provides a cost-effective behavioural epidemiologic method to facilitate prevention and control of the disease

Acceptability and Accessibility of a Shigellosis Vaccine in Nha Trang City of Viet Nam

The acceptability and accessibility of a hypothetical Shigella vaccination campaign was explored. A household survey was conducted with 539 randomly-selected residents of six communes in Nha Trang city of Viet Nam. Four categories of acceptability, such as refusers, low acceptors, acceptors, and high acceptors, were established, Refusers were significantly more likely to be elderly women and were less likely to know the purpose of vaccinations. Low acceptors tended to be male, elderly, and live in urban areas. Low acceptors perceived the disease as less serious and themselves as less vulnerable than acceptors and high acceptors. In terms of accessing vaccination, the commune health centre workers and commune leaders were the preferred sources of information and commune health centres the preferred location for vaccination. Direct verbal information from healthcare providers and audiovisual media were preferred to written information. The respondents expressed a desire for knowledge about the side-effects and efficacy of the vaccine. These findings are significant for targeting specific messages about shigellosis and vaccination to different populations and maximizing informed participation in public-health campaigns

Healthcare Use for Diarrhoea and Dysentery in Actual and Hypothetical Cases, Nha Trang, Viet Nam

To better understand healthcare use for diarrhoea and dysentery in Nha Trang, Viet Nam, qualitative interviews with community residents and dysentery case studies were conducted. Findings were supplemented by a quantitative survey which asked respondents which healthcare provider their household members would use for diarrhoea or dysentery. A clear pattern of healthcare-seeking behaviours among 433 respondents emerged. More than half of the respondents self-treated initially. Medication for initial treatment was purchased from a pharmacy or with medication stored at home. Traditional home treatments were also widely used. If no improvement occurred or the symptoms were perceived to be severe, individuals would visit a healthcare facility. Private medical practitioners are playing a steadily increasing role in the Vietnamese healthcare system. Less than a quarter of diarrhoea patients initially used government healthcare providers at commune health centres, polyclinics, and hospitals, which are the only sources of data for routine public-health statistics. Given these healthcare-use patterns, reported rates could significantly underestimate the real disease burden of dysentery and diarrhoea

Adults' Perceived Prevalence of Enteric Fever Predicts Laboratory-validated Incidence of Typhoid Fever in Children

This study was undertaken to develop a model to predict the incidence of typhoid in children based on adults' perception of prevalence of enteric fever in the wider community. Typhoid cases among children, aged 5-15 years, from epidemic regions in five Asian countries were confirmed with a positive Salmonella Typhi culture of the blood sample. Estimates of the prevalence of enteric fever were obtained from random samples of adults in the same study sites. Regression models were used for establishing the prediction equation. The percentages of enteric fever reported by adults and cases of typhoid incidence per 100,000, detected through blood culture were 4.7 and 24.18 for Viet Nam, 3.8 and 29.20 for China, 26.3 and 180.33 for Indonesia, 66.0 and 454.15 for India, and 52.7 and 407.18 for Pakistan respectively. An established prediction equation was: incidence of typhoid (1/100,000= -2.6946 + 7.2296 7 reported prevalence of enteric fever (%) (F=31.7, p<0.01; R2=0.992). Using adults' perception of prevalence of disease as the basis for estimating its incidence in children provides a cost-effective behavioural epidemiologic method to facilitate prevention and control of the disease

A Multicentre Study of Shigella Diarrhoea in Six Asian Countries: Disease Burden, Clinical Manifestations, and Microbiology

BACKGROUND: The burden of shigellosis is greatest in resource-poor countries. Although this diarrheal disease has been thought to cause considerable morbidity and mortality in excess of 1,000,000 deaths globally per year, little recent data are available to guide intervention strategies in Asia. We conducted a prospective, population-based study in six Asian countries to gain a better understanding of the current disease burden, clinical manifestations, and microbiology of shigellosis in Asia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 600,000 persons of all ages residing in Bangladesh, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand were included in the surveillance. Shigella was isolated from 2,927 (5%) of 56,958 diarrhoea episodes detected between 2000 and 2004. The overall incidence of treated shigellosis was 2.1 episodes per 1,000 residents per year in all ages and 13.2/1,000/y in children under 60 months old. Shigellosis incidence increased after age 40 years. S. flexneri was the most frequently isolated Shigella species (1,976/2,927 [68%]) in all sites except in Thailand, where S. sonnei was most frequently detected (124/146 [85%]). S. flexneri serotypes were highly heterogeneous in their distribution from site to site, and even from year to year. PCR detected ipaH, the gene encoding invasion plasmid antigen H in 33% of a sample of culture-negative stool specimens. The majority of S. flexneri isolates in each site were resistant to amoxicillin and cotrimoxazole. Ciprofloxacin-resistant S. flexneri isolates were identified in China (18/305 [6%]), Pakistan (8/242 [3%]), and Vietnam (5/282 [2%]). CONCLUSIONS: Shigella appears to be more ubiquitous in Asian impoverished populations than previously thought, and antibiotic-resistant strains of different species and serotypes have emerged. Focusing on prevention of shigellosis could exert an immediate benefit first by substantially reducing the overall diarrhoea burden in the region and second by preventing the spread of panresistant Shigella strains. The heterogeneous distribution of Shigella species and serotypes suggest that multivalent or cross-protective Shigella vaccines will be needed to prevent shigellosis in Asia

The vaccine data link in Nha Trang, Vietnam: a progress report on the implementation of a database to detect adverse events related to vaccinations.

Real, perceived and unknown adverse events secondary to vaccinations are a source of concern for care providers of children. In the USA large linked databases have provided helpful information regarding the safety of vaccines. Very little prospectively collected data on vaccine safety is available from resource poor countries, but safety concerns may be even more relevant in such settings. Vaccine manufacturers do not have to pass the same rigorous safety standards as vaccine manufacturers in rich countries. Vaccines, which protect against cholera, Japanese encephalitis, rabies or typhoid fever are predominantly used in resource poor, tropical countries and frequently do not undergo vigorous post marketing surveillance. New vaccines specifically suited for resource poor countries are sometimes marketed without the scrutiny of vigilant, independent regulatory authorities. We describe here the design and implementation of a large linked database for a semi-rural province in central Vietnam. The design overcomes several problems inherent in data bases of medical events and vaccinations in developing countries. Assigning a permanent identification (ID) number to each resident avoids the ambiguities of ID numbers based on the address. The distribution and use of medical identification cards with a permanent ID number assists in the unambiguous identification of vaccinees and patients. Medical records of all admissions are coded according to International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) and transcribed into a computer system. Because these processes are novel the data collected by the study will be validated. Project staff will check records on vaccinations and hospital admissions through household visits at regular intervals. Data describing vaccinations and medical events are linked to the data collected by the project staff in a computer system. Based on the validation of the data we hope to optimize this model. Once we find the model working it is planned export this vaccine data safety link to other settings of similar economic status