This study was undertaken to develop a model to predict the incidence
of typhoid in children based on adults' perception of prevalence of
enteric fever in the wider community. Typhoid cases among children,
aged 5-15 years, from epidemic regions in five Asian countries were
confirmed with a positive Salmonella Typhi culture of the blood
sample. Estimates of the prevalence of enteric fever were obtained from
random samples of adults in the same study sites. Regression models
were used for establishing the prediction equation. The percentages of
enteric fever reported by adults and cases of typhoid incidence per
100,000, detected through blood culture were 4.7 and 24.18 for Viet
Nam, 3.8 and 29.20 for China, 26.3 and 180.33 for Indonesia, 66.0 and
454.15 for India, and 52.7 and 407.18 for Pakistan respectively. An
established prediction equation was: incidence of typhoid (1/100,000=
-2.6946 + 7.2296
7 reported prevalence of enteric fever (%)
(F=31.7, p<0.01; R2=0.992). Using adults' perception of prevalence
of disease as the basis for estimating its incidence in children
provides a cost-effective behavioural epidemiologic method to
facilitate prevention and control of the disease