Backtracking radioxenon in Europe using Ensemble transport and dispersion modelling

The Comprehensive nuclear Test-Ban-Treaty bans nuclear explosions by everyone, everywhere. Radioxenon monitoring by the International Monitoring System is a key component of the verification of the Treaty. Atmospheric transport modelling can be used to determine the sources of radioxenon plumes. The Flexpart model is used to backtrack radioxenon observations in Europe to determine their source. An ensemble is used to quantify uncertainty

Source localisation and its uncertainty quantification after the third DPRK nuclear test

The International Monitoring System is being set up aiming to detect violations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Suspicious radioxenon detections were made by the International Monitoring System after the third announced nuclear test conducted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). In this paper, inverse atmospheric transport and dispersion modelling was applied to these detections, to determine the source location, the release term and its associated uncertainties. The DPRK nuclear test site was found to be a likely source location, though a second likely source region in East Asia was found by the inverse modelling, partly due to the radioxenon background from civilian sources. Therefore, techniques to indirectly assess the influence of the radioxenon background are suggested. In case of suspicious radioxenon detections after a man-made explosion, atmospheric transport and dispersion modelling is a powerful tool for assessing whether the explosion could have been nuclear or not

Assessment of the announced North Korean nuclear test using long-range atmospheric transport and dispersion modelling

On 6 January 2016, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea announced to have conducted its fourth nuclear test. Analysis of the corresponding seismic waves from the Punggye-ri nuclear test site showed indeed that an underground man-made explosion took place, although the nuclear origin of the explosion needs confirmation. Seven weeks after the announced nuclear test, radioactive xenon was observed in Japan by a noble gas measurement station of the International Monitoring System. In this paper, atmospheric transport modelling is used to show that the measured radioactive xenon is compatible with a delayed release from the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. An uncertainty quantification on the modelling results is given by using the ensemble method. The latter is important for policy makers and helps advance data fusion, where different nuclear Test-Ban-Treaty monitoring techniques are combined

Time resolution requirements for civilian radioxenon emission data for the CTBT verification regime

The capability of the noble gas component of the International Monitoring System as a verification tool for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty is deteriorated by a background of radioxenon emitted by civilian sources. One of the possible approaches to deal with this issue, is to simulate the daily radioxenon concentrations from these civilian sources at noble gas stations by using atmospheric transport models. In order to accurately quantify the contribution from these civilian sources, knowledge on the releases is required. However, such data are often not available and furthermore it is not clear what temporal resolution such data should have. In this paper, we assess which temporal resolution is required to best model the Xe-133 contribution from civilian sources at noble gas stations in an operational context. We consider different sampling times of the noble gas stations and discriminate between nearby and distant sources. We find that for atmospheric transport and dispersion problems on a scale of 1000 km or more, emission data with subdaily temporal resolution is generally not necessary. However, when the source-receptor distance decreases, time-resolved emission data become more important. The required temporal resolution of emission data thus depends on the transport scale of the problem. In the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, where forty noble gas stations will monitor the whole globe, daily emission data are generally sufficient, but for certain meteorological conditions, better temporally resolved emission data are required

Cost-effectiveness analysis of combination antifungal therapy with voriconazole and anidulafungin versus voriconazole monotherapy for primary treatment of invasive aspergillosis in Spain

Anidulafungina; Cost-efectivitat; Aspergil·losi invasivaAnidulafungina; Coste-efectividad; Aspergilosis invasivaAnidulafungin, Cost-effectiveness; Invasive aspergillosisObjective: According to a recent randomized, double-blind clinical trial comparing the combination of voriconazole and anidulafungin (VOR+ANI) with VOR monotherapy for invasive aspergillosis (IA) in patients with hematologic disease or with hematopoietic stem cell transplant, mortality was lower after 6 weeks with VOR+ANI than with VOR monotherapy in a post hoc analysis of patients with galactomannan-based IA. The objective of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of VOR+ANI with VOR, from the perspective of hospitals in the Spanish National Health System. Methods: An economic model with deterministic and probabilistic analyses was used to determine costs per life-year gained (LYG) for VOR+ANI versus VOR in patients with galactomannan-based IA. Mortality, adverse event rates, and life expectancy were obtained from clinical trial data. The costs (in 2015 euros [€]) of the drugs and the adverse event-related costs were obtained from Spanish sources. A Tornado plot and a Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 iterations) were used to assess uncertainty of all model variables. Results: According to the deterministic analysis, for each patient treated with VOR+ANI compared with VOR monotherapy, there would be a total of 0.348 LYG (2.529 vs 2.181 years, respectively) at an incremental cost of €5,493 (€17,902 vs €12,409, respectively). Consequently, the additional cost per LYG with VOR+ANI compared with VOR would be €15,785. Deterministic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings. In the probabilistic analysis, the cost per LYG with VOR+ANI was €15,774 (95% confidence interval: €15,763–16,692). The probability of VOR+ANI being cost-effective compared with VOR was estimated at 82.5% and 91.9%, based on local cost-effectiveness thresholds of €30,000 and €45,000, respectively. Conclusion: According to the present economic study, combination therapy with VOR+ANI is cost-effective as primary therapy of IA in galactomannan-positive patients in Spain who have hematologic disease or hematopoietic stem cell transplant, compared with VOR monotherapy

Weight loss-induced stress in subcutaneous adipose tissue is related to weight regain

Initial successful weight loss is often followed by weight regain after the dietary intervention. Compared with lean people, cellular stress in adipose tissue is increased in obese subjects. However, the relation between cellular stress and the risk for weight regain after weight loss is unclear. Therefore, we determined the expression levels of stress proteins during weight loss and weight maintenance in relation to weight regain. In vivo findings were compared with results from in vitro cultured human Simpson-Golabi-Behmel syndrome (SGBS) adipocytes. In total, eighteen healthy subjects underwent an 8-week diet programme with a 10-month follow-up. Participants were categorised as weight maintainers or weight regainers (WR) depending on their weight changes during the intervention. Abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue biopsies were obtained before and after the diet and after the follow-up. In vitro differentiated SGBS adipocytes were starved for 96 h with low (0.55 mm) glucose. Levels of stress proteins were determined by Western blotting. WR showed increased expressions of beta-actin, calnexin, heat shock protein (HSP) 27, HSP60 and HSP70. Changes of beta-actin, HSP27 and HSP70 are linked to HSP60, a proposed key factor in weight regain after weight loss. SGBS adipocytes showed increased levels of beta-actin and HSP60 after 96 h of glucose restriction. The increased level of cellular stress proteins in the adipose tissue of WR probably resides in the adipocytes as shown by in vitro experiments. Cellular stress accumulated in adipose tissue during weight loss may be a risk factor for weight regain

Serologic Analysis of Returned Travelers with Fever, Sweden

We studied 1,432 febrile travelers from Sweden who had returned from malaria-endemic areas during March 2005–March 2008. In 383 patients, paired serum samples were blindly analyzed for influenza and 7 other agents. For 21% of 115 patients with fever of unknown origin, serologic analysis showed that influenza was the major cause

Health outcomes of 1000 children born to mothers with inflammatory bowel disease in their first 5 years of life

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe the long-term health outcomes of children born to mothers with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and to assess the impact of maternal IBD medication use on these outcomes. DESIGN: We performed a multicentre retrospective study in The Netherlands. Women with IBD who gave birth between 1999 and 2018 were enrolled from 20 participating hospitals. Information regarding disease characteristics, medication use, lifestyle, pregnancy outcomes and long-term health outcomes of children was retrieved from mothers and medical charts. After consent of both parents, outcomes until 5 years were also collected from general practitioners. Our primary aim was to assess infection rate and our secondary aims were to assess adverse reactions to vaccinations, growth, autoimmune diseases and malignancies. RESULTS: We included 1000 children born to 626 mothers (381 (61%) Crohn's disease, 225 (36%) ulcerative colitis and 20 (3%) IBD unclassified). In total, 196 (20%) had intrauterine exposure to anti-tumour necrosis factor-α (anti-TNF-α) (60 with concomitant thiopurine) and 240 (24%) were exposed to thiopurine monotherapy. The 564 children (56%) not exposed to anti-TNF-α and/or thiopurine served as control group. There was no association between adverse long-term health outcomes and in utero exposure to IBD treatment. We did find an increased rate of intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) in case thiopurine was used during the pregnancy without affecting birth outcomes and long-term health outcomes of children. All outcomes correspond with the general age-adjusted population. CONCLUSION: In our study, we found no association between in utero exposure to anti-TNF-α and/or thiopurine and the long-term outcomes antibiotic-treated infections, severe infections needing hospital admission, adverse reactions to vaccinations, growth failure, autoimmune diseases and malignancies

WOSMIP II- Workshop on Signatures of Medical and Industrial Isotope Production

Medical and industrial fadioisotopes are fundamental tools used in science, medicine and industry with an ever expanding usage in medical practice where their availability is vital. Very sensitive environmental radionuclide monitoring networks have been developed for nuclear-security-related monitoring [particularly Comprehensive Test-Ban-Treaty (CTBT) compliance verification] and are now operational