The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare

Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered

Factors affecting greenhouse microclimate and its regulating techniques: a review

This paper reviews factors affecting greenhouse microclimate and its regulating techniques towards upgrading the greenhouse applications in the area of southeast China which have little or very basic technology integration. The microclimate of greenhouse is apparently influenced by the shape and its orientation, the wind direction, the property of covering material, and the use of insect-proof screen as they eventually affect the total solar radiation, the thermal characterises, and the flow pattern inside. The natural ventilation and sun block are the most common method to cool the greenhouse, but more efficient evaporative cooling such as pad-fan system, misting/fogging system and roof sprinkler are required with extreme temperatures. The earth to air heat exchanger and the heat storage using phase change material may be used for heating or cooling throughout the year which are more economic and energy-saving than other traditional thermal technologies. The reviewed knowledge provides insights into upgrading greenhouse applications in Ningbo area towards more sustainable and efficient greenhouse farming

Bioenergy production and sustainable development: science base for policymaking remains limited

The possibility of using bioenergy as a climate change mitigation measure has sparked a discussion of whether and how bioenergy production contributes to sustainable development. We undertook a systematic review of the scientific literature to illuminate this relationship and found a limited scientific basis for policymaking. Our results indicate that knowledge on the sustainable development impacts of bioenergy production is concentrated in a few well-studied countries, focuses on environmental and economic impacts, and mostly relates to dedicated agricultural biomass plantations. The scope and methodological approaches in studies differ widely and only a small share of the studies sufficiently reports on context and/or baseline conditions, which makes it difficult to get a general understanding of the attribution of impacts. Nevertheless, we identified regional patterns of positive or negative impacts for all categories – environmental, economic, institutional, social and technological. In general, economic and technological impacts were more frequently reported as positive, while social and environmental impacts were more frequently reported as negative (with the exception of impacts on direct substitution of GHG emission from fossil fuel). More focused and transparent research is needed to validate these patterns and develop a strong science underpinning for establishing policies and governance agreements that prevent/mitigate negative and promote positive impacts from bioenergy production

From Monodisciplinary via Multidisciplinary to an Interdisciplinary Approach Investigating Air-Sea Interactions – a SOLAS Initiative

Understanding the physical and biogeochemical interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere is a vital component of environmental and Earth system research. The ability to predict and respond to future environmental change relies on a detailed understanding of these processes. The Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) is an international research platform that focuses on the study of ocean-atmosphere interactions, for which Future Earth is a sponsor. SOLAS instigated a collaborative initiative process to connect efforts in the natural and social sciences related to these processes, as a contribution to the emerging Future Earth Ocean Knowledge-Action Network (Ocean KAN). This is imperative because many of the recent changes in the Earth system are anthropogenic. An understanding of adaptation and counteracting measures requires an alliance of scientists from both domains to bridge the gap between science and policy. To this end, three SOLAS research areas were targeted for a case study to determine a more effective method of interdisciplinary research: valuing carbon and the ocean’s role; air-sea interactions, policy and stewardship; and, air-sea interactions and the shipping industry

Clinical use of amyloid-positron emission tomography neuroimaging: Practical and bioethical considerations

Until recently, estimation of β-amyloid plaque density as a key element for identifying Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology as the cause of cognitive impairment was only possible at autopsy. Now with amyloid-positron emission tomography (amyloid-PET) neuroimaging, this AD hallmark can be detected antemortem. Practitioners and patients need to better understand potential diagnostic benefits and limitations of amyloid-PET and the complex practical, ethical, and social implications surrounding this new technology. To complement the practical considerations, Eli Lilly and Company sponsored a Bioethics Advisory Board to discuss ethical issues that might arise from clinical use of amyloid-PET neuroimaging with patients being evaluated for causes of cognitive decline. To best address the multifaceted issues associated with amyloid-PET neuroimaging, we recommend this technology be used only by experienced imaging and treating physicians in appropriately selected patients and only in the context of a comprehensive clinical evaluation with adequate explanations before and after the scan