Long-term mortality following complications after elective surgery: a secondary analysis of pooled data from two prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Complications after surgery affect survival and quality of life. We aimed to confirm the relationship between postoperative complications and death within 1 yr after surgery. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of pooled data from two prospective cohort studies of patients undergoing surgery in five high-income countries between 2012 and 2014. Exposure was any complication within 30 days after surgery. Primary outcome was death within 1 yr after surgery, ascertained by direct follow-up or linkage to national registers. We adjusted for clinically important covariates using a mixed-effect multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model. We conducted a planned subgroup analysis by type of complication. Data are presented as mean with standard deviation (sd), n (%), and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The pooled cohort included 10 132 patients. After excluding 399 (3.9%) patients with missing data or incomplete follow-up, 9733 patients were analysed. The mean age was 59 [sd 16.8] yr, and 5362 (55.1%) were female. Of 9733 patients, 1841 (18.9%) had complications within 30 days after surgery, and 319 (3.3%) died within 1 yr after surgery. Of 1841 patients with complications, 138 (7.5%) died within 1 yr after surgery compared with 181 (2.3%) of 7892 patients without complications (aHR 1.94 [95% CI: 1.53-2.46]). Respiratory failure was associated with the highest risk of death, resulting in six deaths amongst 28 patients (21.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative complications are associated with increased mortality at 1 yr. Further research is needed to identify patients at risk of complications and to reduce mortality

Vortices in polariton OPO superfluids

This chapter reviews the occurrence of quantised vortices in polariton fluids, primarily when polaritons are driven in the optical parametric oscillator (OPO) regime. We first review the OPO physics, together with both its analytical and numerical modelling, the latter being necessary for the description of finite size systems. Pattern formation is typical in systems driven away from equilibrium. Similarly, we find that uniform OPO solutions can be unstable to the spontaneous formation of quantised vortices. However, metastable vortices can only be injected externally into an otherwise stable symmetric state, and their persistence is due to the OPO superfluid properties. We discuss how the currents charactering an OPO play a crucial role in the occurrence and dynamics of both metastable and spontaneous vortices.Comment: 40 pages, 16 figure

Effects of bone marrow-derived cells on monocrotaline- and hypoxia-induced pulmonary hypertension in mice

BACKGROUND: Bone marrow -derived cells (BMDCs) can either limit or contribute to the process of pulmonary vascular remodeling. Whether the difference in their effects depends on the mechanism of pulmonary hypertension (PH) remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the effect of BMDCs on PH induced in mice by either monocrotaline or exposure to chronic hypoxia. METHODS: Intravenous administration of the active monocrotaline metabolite (monocrotaline pyrrole, MCTp) to C57BL/6 mice induced PH within 15 days, due to remodeling of small distal vessels. Three days after the MCTp injection, the mice were injected with BMDCs harvested from femurs and tibias of donor mice treated with 5-fluorouracil (3.5 mg IP/animal) to deplete mature cells and to allow proliferation of progenitor cells. RESULTS: BMDCs significantly attenuated PH as assessed by reductions in right ventricular systolic pressure (20 ± 1 mmHg vs. 27 ± 1 mmHg, P ≤ 0.01), right ventricle weight/left ventricle+septum weight ratio (0.29 ± 0.02 vs. 0.36 ± 0.01, P ≤ 0.03), and percentage of muscularized vessels (26.4% vs. 33.5%, P ≤ 0.05), compared to control animals treated with irradiated BMDCs. Tracking cells from constitutive GFP-expressing male donor mice with anti-GFP antibodies or chromosome Y level measurement by quantitative real-time PCR showed BMDCs in the lung. In contrast, chronically hypoxic mice subjected to the same procedure failed to show improvement in PH. CONCLUSION: These results show that BMDCs limit pulmonary vascular remodeling induced by vascular injury but not by hypoxia

Network model of immune responses reveals key effectors to single and co-infection dynamics by a respiratory bacterium and a gastrointestinal helminth

Co-infections alter the host immune response but how the systemic and local processes at the site of infection interact is still unclear. The majority of studies on co-infections concentrate on one of the infecting species, an immune function or group of cells and often focus on the initial phase of the infection. Here, we used a combination of experiments and mathematical modelling to investigate the network of immune responses against single and co-infections with the respiratory bacterium Bordetella bronchiseptica and the gastrointestinal helminth Trichostrongylus retortaeformis. Our goal was to identify representative mediators and functions that could capture the essence of the host immune response as a whole, and to assess how their relative contribution dynamically changed over time and between single and co-infected individuals. Network-based discrete dynamic models of single infections were built using current knowledge of bacterial and helminth immunology; the two single infection models were combined into a co-infection model that was then verified by our empirical findings. Simulations showed that a T helper cell mediated antibody and neutrophil response led to phagocytosis and clearance of B. bronchiseptica from the lungs. This was consistent in single and co-infection with no significant delay induced by the helminth. In contrast, T. retortaeformis intensity decreased faster when co-infected with the bacterium. Simulations suggested that the robust recruitment of neutrophils in the co-infection, added to the activation of IgG and eosinophil driven reduction of larvae, which also played an important role in single infection, contributed to this fast clearance. Perturbation analysis of the models, through the knockout of individual nodes (immune cells), identified the cells critical to parasite persistence and clearance both in single and co-infections. Our integrated approach captured the within-host immuno-dynamics of bacteria-helminth infection and identified key components that can be crucial for explaining individual variability between single and co-infections in natural populations

Timing, rates and spectra of human germline mutation.

Germline mutations are a driving force behind genome evolution and genetic disease. We investigated genome-wide mutation rates and spectra in multi-sibling families. The mutation rate increased with paternal age in all families, but the number of additional mutations per year differed by more than twofold between families. Meta-analysis of 6,570 mutations showed that germline methylation influences mutation rates. In contrast to somatic mutations, we found remarkable consistency in germline mutation spectra between the sexes and at different paternal ages. In parental germ line, 3.8% of mutations were mosaic, resulting in 1.3% of mutations being shared by siblings. The number of these shared mutations varied significantly between families. Our data suggest that the mutation rate per cell division is higher during both early embryogenesis and differentiation of primordial germ cells but is reduced substantially during post-pubertal spermatogenesis. These findings have important consequences for the recurrence risks of disorders caused by de novo mutations

The prognosis of allocentric and egocentric neglect : evidence from clinical scans

We contrasted the neuroanatomical substrates of sub-acute and chronic visuospatial deficits associated with different aspects of unilateral neglect using computed tomography scans acquired as part of routine clinical diagnosis. Voxel-wise statistical analyses were conducted on a group of 160 stroke patients scanned at a sub-acute stage. Lesion-deficit relationships were assessed across the whole brain, separately for grey and white matter. We assessed lesions that were associated with behavioural performance (i) at a sub-acute stage (within 3 months of the stroke) and (ii) at a chronic stage (after 9 months post stroke). Allocentric and egocentric neglect symptoms at the sub-acute stage were associated with lesions to dissociated regions within the frontal lobe, amongst other regions. However the frontal lesions were not associated with neglect at the chronic stage. On the other hand, lesions in the angular gyrus were associated with persistent allocentric neglect. In contrast, lesions within the superior temporal gyrus extending into the supramarginal gyrus, as well as lesions within the basal ganglia and insula, were associated with persistent egocentric neglect. Damage within the temporo-parietal junction was associated with both types of neglect at the sub-acute stage and 9 months later. Furthermore, white matter disconnections resulting from damage along the superior longitudinal fasciculus were associated with both types of neglect and critically related to both sub-acute and chronic deficits. Finally, there was a significant difference in the lesion volume between patients who recovered from neglect and patients with chronic deficits. The findings presented provide evidence that (i) the lesion location and lesion size can be used to successfully predict the outcome of neglect based on clinical CT scans, (ii) lesion location alone can serve as a critical predictor for persistent neglect symptoms, (iii) wide spread lesions are associated with neglect symptoms at the sub-acute stage but only some of these are critical for predicting whether neglect will become a chronic disorder and (iv) the severity of behavioural symptoms can be a useful predictor of recovery in the absence of neuroimaging findings on clinical scans. We discuss the implications for understanding the symptoms of the neglect syndrome, the recovery of function and the use of clinical scans to predict outcome

The intellectual influence of economic journals: quality versus quantity

The evaluation of scientific output has a key role in the allocation of research funds and academic positions. Decisions are often based on quality indicators for academic journals, and over the years, a handful of scoring methods have been proposed for this purpose. Discussing the most prominent methods (de facto standards) we show that they do not distinguish quality from quantity at article level. The systematic bias we find is analytically tractable and implies that the methods are manipulable. We introduce modified methods that correct for this bias, and use them to provide rankings of economic journals. Our methodology is transparent; our results are replicable

Can Interactions between Timing of Vaccine-Altered Influenza Pandemic Waves and Seasonality in Influenza Complications Lead to More Severe Outcomes?

Vaccination can delay the peak of a pandemic influenza wave by reducing the number of individuals initially susceptible to influenza infection. Emerging evidence indicates that susceptibility to severe secondary bacterial infections following a primary influenza infection may vary seasonally, with peak susceptibility occurring in winter. Taken together, these two observations suggest that vaccinating to prevent a fall pandemic wave might delay it long enough to inadvertently increase influenza infections in winter, when primary influenza infection is more likely to cause severe outcomes. This could potentially cause a net increase in severe outcomes. Most pandemic models implicitly assume that the probability of severe outcomes does not vary seasonally and hence cannot capture this effect. Here we show that the probability of intensive care unit (ICU) admission per influenza infection in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic followed a seasonal pattern. We combine this with an influenza transmission model to investigate conditions under which a vaccination program could inadvertently shift influenza susceptibility to months where the risk of ICU admission due to influenza is higher. We find that vaccination in advance of a fall pandemic wave can actually increase the number of ICU admissions in situations where antigenic drift is sufficiently rapid or where importation of a cross-reactive strain is possible. Moreover, this effect is stronger for vaccination programs that prevent more primary influenza infections. Sensitivity analysis indicates several mechanisms that may cause this effect. We also find that the predicted number of ICU admissions changes dramatically depending on whether the probability of ICU admission varies seasonally, or whether it is held constant. These results suggest that pandemic planning should explore the potential interactions between seasonally varying susceptibility to severe influenza outcomes and the timing of vaccine-altered pandemic influenza waves