Cholera risk: A machine learning approach applied to essential climate variables

Oceanic and coastal ecosystems have undergone complex environmental changes in recent years, amid a context of climate change. These changes are also reflected in the dynamics of water-borne diseases as some of the causative agents of these illnesses are ubiquitous in the aquatic environment and their survival rates are impacted by changes in climatic conditions. Previous studies have established strong relationships between essential climate variables and the coastal distribution and seasonal dynamics of the bacteria Vibrio cholerae, pathogenic types of which are responsible for human cholera disease. In this study we provide a novel exploration of the potential of a machine learning approach to forecast environmental cholera risk in coastal India, home to more than 200 million inhabitants, utilising atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic satellite-derived essential climate variables. A Random Forest classifier model is developed, trained and tested on a cholera outbreak dataset over the period 2010–2018 for districts along coastal India. The random forest classifier model has an Accuracy of 0.99, an F1 Score of 0.942 and a Sensitivity score of 0.895, meaning that 89.5% of outbreaks are correctly identified. Spatio-temporal patterns emerged in terms of the model’s performance based on seasons and coastal locations. Further analysis of the specific contribution of each Essential Climate Variable to the model outputs shows that chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface salinity and land surface temperature are the strongest predictors of the cholera outbreaks in the dataset used. The study reveals promising potential of the use of random forest classifiers and remotely-sensed essential climate variables for the development of environmental cholera-risk applications. Further exploration of the present random forest model and associated essential climate variables is encouraged on cholera surveillance datasets in other coastal areas affected by the disease to determine the model’s transferability potential and applicative value for cholera forecasting systems

Brain Biomarkers and Pre-Injury Cognition are Associated with Long-Term Cognitive Outcome in Children with Traumatic Brain Injury

BACKGROUND: Children with traumatic brain injury (TBI) are frequently at risk of long-term impairments of attention and executive functioning but these problems are difficult to predict. Although deficits have been reported to vary with injury severity, age at injury and sex, prognostication of outcome remains imperfect at a patient-specific level. The objective of this proof of principle study was to evaluate a variety of patient variables, along with six brain-specific and inflammatory serum protein biomarkers, as predictors of long-term cognitive outcome following paediatric TBI. METHOD: Outcome was assessed in 23 patients via parent-rated questionnaires related to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and executive functioning, using the Conners 3rd Edition Rating Scales (Conners-3) and Behaviour Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF) at a mean time since injury of 3.1 years. Partial least squares (PLS) analyses were performed to identify factors measured at the time of injury that were most closely associated with outcome on (1) the Conners-3 and (2) the Behavioural Regulation Index (BRI) and (3) Metacognition Index (MI) of the BRIEF. RESULTS: Higher levels of neuron specific enolase (NSE) and lower levels of soluble neuron cell adhesion molecule (sNCAM) were associated with higher scores on the inattention, hyperactivity/impulsivity and executive functioning scales of the Conners-3, as well as working memory and initiate scales of the MI from the BRIEF. Higher levels of NSE only were associated with higher scores on the inhibit scale of the BRI. CONCLUSIONS: NSE and sNCAM show promise as reliable, early predictors of long-term attention-related and executive functioning problems following paediatric TBI

The Grizzly, October 3, 2002

Students Show Parents Their Second Home: Family Day 2002 • Students Voice Opinions in Campus Terrorism Talk • Memory of Fountain Trickles Away • Davis Professor to Deliver Lectures for Students and Faculty • New Technical Director Brings Different View Behind the Scenes • Read All About it: Newspapers in the Bookstore • Opinions: Eminem: Good or Bad • Four Doors: A Memorial • Fun Historic Event: The Heritage Festival Held on the Wentz Farmstead • Women\u27s Rugby Score First try in Ursinus History • Dougherty Sprints to Second Place • Renovate Your Room by Swappin\u27 Suites • Comparative Pricing: Comfort Foodhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1521/thumbnail.jp

Genomic, Pathway Network, and Immunologic Features Distinguishing Squamous Carcinomas

This integrated, multiplatform PanCancer Atlas study co-mapped and identified distinguishing molecular features of squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) from five sites associated with smokin

Pan-Cancer Analysis of lncRNA Regulation Supports Their Targeting of Cancer Genes in Each Tumor Context

Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are commonly dys-regulated in tumors, but only a handful are known toplay pathophysiological roles in cancer. We inferredlncRNAs that dysregulate cancer pathways, onco-genes, and tumor suppressors (cancer genes) bymodeling their effects on the activity of transcriptionfactors, RNA-binding proteins, and microRNAs in5,185 TCGA tumors and 1,019 ENCODE assays.Our predictions included hundreds of candidateonco- and tumor-suppressor lncRNAs (cancerlncRNAs) whose somatic alterations account for thedysregulation of dozens of cancer genes and path-ways in each of 14 tumor contexts. To demonstrateproof of concept, we showed that perturbations tar-geting OIP5-AS1 (an inferred tumor suppressor) andTUG1 and WT1-AS (inferred onco-lncRNAs) dysre-gulated cancer genes and altered proliferation ofbreast and gynecologic cancer cells. Our analysis in-dicates that, although most lncRNAs are dysregu-lated in a tumor-specific manner, some, includingOIP5-AS1, TUG1, NEAT1, MEG3, and TSIX, synergis-tically dysregulate cancer pathways in multiple tumorcontexts

Pan-cancer Alterations of the MYC Oncogene and Its Proximal Network across the Cancer Genome Atlas

Although theMYConcogene has been implicated incancer, a systematic assessment of alterations ofMYC, related transcription factors, and co-regulatoryproteins, forming the proximal MYC network (PMN),across human cancers is lacking. Using computa-tional approaches, we define genomic and proteo-mic features associated with MYC and the PMNacross the 33 cancers of The Cancer Genome Atlas.Pan-cancer, 28% of all samples had at least one ofthe MYC paralogs amplified. In contrast, the MYCantagonists MGA and MNT were the most frequentlymutated or deleted members, proposing a roleas tumor suppressors.MYCalterations were mutu-ally exclusive withPIK3CA,PTEN,APC,orBRAFalterations, suggesting that MYC is a distinct onco-genic driver. Expression analysis revealed MYC-associated pathways in tumor subtypes, such asimmune response and growth factor signaling; chro-matin, translation, and DNA replication/repair wereconserved pan-cancer. This analysis reveals insightsinto MYC biology and is a reference for biomarkersand therapeutics for cancers with alterations ofMYC or the PMN

Spatial Organization and Molecular Correlation of Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes Using Deep Learning on Pathology Images

Beyond sample curation and basic pathologic characterization, the digitized H&E-stained images of TCGA samples remain underutilized. To highlight this resource, we present mappings of tumorinfiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) based on H&E images from 13 TCGA tumor types. These TIL maps are derived through computational staining using a convolutional neural network trained to classify patches of images. Affinity propagation revealed local spatial structure in TIL patterns and correlation with overall survival. TIL map structural patterns were grouped using standard histopathological parameters. These patterns are enriched in particular T cell subpopulations derived from molecular measures. TIL densities and spatial structure were differentially enriched among tumor types, immune subtypes, and tumor molecular subtypes, implying that spatial infiltrate state could reflect particular tumor cell aberration states. Obtaining spatial lymphocytic patterns linked to the rich genomic characterization of TCGA samples demonstrates one use for the TCGA image archives with insights into the tumor-immune microenvironment

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

A tetraoxane-based antimalarial drug candidate that overcomes PfK13-C580Y dependent artemisinin resistance.

K13 gene mutations are a primary marker of artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum malaria that threatens the long-term clinical utility of artemisinin-based combination therapies, the cornerstone of modern day malaria treatment. Here we describe a multinational drug discovery programme that has delivered a synthetic tetraoxane-based molecule, E209, which meets key requirements of the Medicines for Malaria Venture drug candidate profiles. E209 has potent nanomolar inhibitory activity against multiple strains of P. falciparum and P. vivax in vitro, is efficacious against P. falciparum in in vivo rodent models, produces parasite reduction ratios equivalent to dihydroartemisinin and has pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics compatible with a single-dose cure. In vitro studies with transgenic parasites expressing variant forms of K13 show no cross-resistance with the C580Y mutation, the primary variant observed in Southeast Asia. E209 is a superior next generation endoperoxide with combined pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic features that overcome the liabilities of artemisinin derivatives

Using observational data to emulate a randomized trial of dynamic treatment switching strategies

BACKGROUND: When a clinical treatment fails or shows suboptimal results, the question of when to switch to another treatment arises. Treatment switching strategies are often dynamic because the time of switching depends on the evolution of an individual's time-varying covariates. Dynamic strategies can be directly compared in randomized trials. For example, HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy could be randomized to switching therapy within 90 days of HIV-1 RNA crossing above a threshold of either 400 copies/ml (tight-control strategy) or 1000 copies/ml (loose-control strategy).METHODS: We review an approach to emulate a randomized trial of dynamic switching strategies using observational data from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration, the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems and the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration. We estimated the comparative effect of tight-control vs. loose-control strategies on death and AIDS or death via inverse-probability weighting.RESULTS: Of 43 803 individuals who initiated an eligible antiretroviral therapy regimen in 2002 or later, 2001 met the baseline inclusion criteria for the mortality analysis and 1641 for the AIDS or death analysis. There were 21 deaths and 33 AIDS or death events in the tight-control group, and 28 deaths and 41 AIDS or death events in the loose-control group. Compared with tight control, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for loose control were 1.10 (0.73, 1.66) for death, and 1.04 (0.86, 1.27) for AIDS or death.CONCLUSIONS: Although our effective sample sizes were small and our estimates imprecise, the described methodological approach can serve as an example for future analyses