Adjusting for bias introduced by instrumental variable estimation in the Cox Proportional Hazards Model

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used for estimating average treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the capability of existing IV procedures, and most notably the two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) procedure recommended for use in nonlinear contexts, to account for unmeasured confounders in the Cox proportional hazard model is unclear. We show that instrumenting an endogenous treatment induces an unmeasured covariate, referred to as an individual frailty in survival analysis parlance, which if not accounted for leads to bias. We propose a new procedure that augments 2SRI with an individual frailty and prove that it is consistent under certain conditions. The finite sample-size behavior is studied across a broad set of conditions via Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the proposed methodology is used to estimate the average effect of carotid endarterectomy versus carotid artery stenting on the mortality of patients suffering from carotid artery disease. Results suggest that the 2SRI-frailty estimator generally reduces the bias of both point and interval estimators compared to traditional 2SRI.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, 4 table

A Single Nucleotide Polymorphism in the Il17ra Promoter Is Associated with Functional Severity of Ankylosing Spondylitis

The aim of this study was to identify new genetic variants associated with the severity of ankylosing spondylitis (AS). We sequenced the exome of eight patients diagnosed with AS, selected on the basis of the severity of their clinical parameters. We identified 27 variants in exons and regulatory regions. The contribution of candidate variants found to AS severity was validated by genotyping two Spanish cohorts consisting of 180 cases/300 controls and 419 cases/656 controls. Relationships of SNPs and clinical variables with the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity and Functional Indices BASDAI and BASFI were analyzed. BASFI was standardized by adjusting for the duration of the disease since the appearance of the first symptoms. Refining the analysis of SNPs in the two cohorts, we found that the rs4819554 minor allele G in the promoter of the IL17RA gene was associated with AS (p<0.005). This variant was also associated with the BASFI score. Classifying AS patients by the severity of their functional status with respect to BASFI/disease duration of the 60th, 65th, 70th and 75th percentiles, we found the association increased from p60 to p75 (cohort 1: p<0.05 to p<0.01; cohort 2: p<0.01 to p<0.005). Our findings indicate a genetic role for the IL17/ILRA axis in the development of severe forms of AS

Synthesis of the Ti-Silicate Form of BEC Polymorph of B-Zeolite Assisted by Molecular Modeling

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in The Journal of Physical Chemistry C, copyright © American Chemical Society after peer review and technical editing by the publisher. To access the final edited and published work see http://doi.org/10.1021/jp805400u Published Work, see http://pubs.acs.org/page/policy/articlesonrequest/index.html[EN] The K(+) free pure silica form of polymorph C (BEC) of beta-zeolite has been synthesized with a cationic organic structure directing agent (SDA) that was predicted best, out of a series of nine potentials, by means of modeling techniques. On the bases of this synthesis method, the Ti-BEC zeolite has been obtained which owing to the pore topology and dimensions shows a higher epoxidation activity than the Ti-beta-polymorph either with H(2)O(2) or organic peroxides as oxidants.The authors thank the CICYT for financial support (Project MAT 2006-14274-CO2-01). G.S. thanks "Centro de Calculo de la Universidad Politecnica de Valencia" for the use of their computational facilities. M.M. and P.S. thank ITQ for a scholarship. We also thank intramural project CRENATUM.Moliner Marin, M.; Serna Merino, PM.; Cantin Sanz, A.; Sastre Navarro, GI.; Díaz Cabañas, MJ.; Corma Canós, A. (2008). Synthesis of the Ti-Silicate Form of BEC Polymorph of B-Zeolite Assisted by Molecular Modeling. The Journal of Physical Chemistry C. 112(49):19547-19554. https://doi.org/10.1021/jp805400uS19547195541124

Cancer Survival in Adults in Spain: A Population-Based Study of the Spanish Network of Cancer Registries (REDECAN)

© 2022.This document is made available under the CC-BY 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by /4.0/ This document is the published version of a published work that appeared in final form in CancersThe assessment of cancer survival at the population level is essential for monitoring progress in cancer control. We aimed to assess cancer survival and its trends in adults in Spain. Individual records of 601,250 adults with primary cancer diagnosed during 2002-2013 and followed up to 2015 were included from 13 population-based cancer registries. We estimated net survival up to five years after diagnosis and analyzed absolute changes between 2002-2007 and 2008-2013. Estimates were age-standardized. Analyses were performed for 29 cancer groups, by age and sex. Overall, age-standardized five-year net survival was higher in women (61.7%, 95% CI 61.4-62.1%) than in men (55.3%, 95% CI 55.0-55.6%), and ranged by cancer from 7.2% (pancreas) to 89.6% (prostate) in men, and from 10.0% (pancreas) to 93.1% (thyroid) in women in the last period. Survival declined with age, showing different patterns by cancer. Between both periods, age-standardized five-year net survival increased overall by 3.3% (95% CI 3.0-3.7%) in men and 2.5% (95% CI 2.0-3.0%) in women, and for most cancer groups. Improvements were greater in patients younger than 75 years than in older patients. Chronic myeloid leukemia and myeloma showed the largest increases. Among the most common malignancies, the greatest absolute increases in survival were observed for colon (5.0%, 95% CI 4.0-6.0%) and rectal cancers (4.5%, 95% CI 3.2-5.9%). Survival improved even for some cancers with poor prognosis (pancreas, esophagus, lung, liver, and brain cancer). Further investigation of possible sociodemographic inequalities is warranted. This study contributes to the evaluation of cancer control and health services' effectiveness

Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2015 and GOLD 2019 staging: a pooled analysis of individual patient data

In 2019, The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) modified the grading system for patients with COPD, creating 16 subgroups (1A-4D). As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aim to compare the mortality prediction of the 2015 and 2019 COPD GOLD staging systems. We studied 17 139 COPD patients from the 3CIA study, selecting those with complete data. Patients were classified by the 2015 and 2019 GOLD ABCD systems, and we compared the predictive ability for 5-year mortality of both classifications. In total, 17139 patients with COPD were enrolled in 22 cohorts from 11 countries between 2003 and 2017; 8823 of them had complete data and were analysed. Mean +/- SD age was 63.9 +/- 9.8 years and 62.9% were male. GOLD 2019 classified the patients in milder degrees of COPD. For both classifications, group D had higher mortality. 5-year mortality did not differ between groups B and C in GOLD 2015; in GOLD 2019, mortality was greater for group B than C. Patients classified as group A and B had better sensitivity and positive predictive value with the GOLD 2019 classification than GOLD 2015. GOLD 2015 had better sensitivity for group C and D than GOLD 2019. The area under the curve values for 5-year mortality were only 0.67 (95% CI 0.66-0.68) for GOLD 2015 and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63-0.66) for GOLD 2019. The new GOLD 2019 classification does not predict mortality better than the previous GOLD 2015 system

Sex differences between women and men with COPD: A new analysis of the 3CIA study

Background: There is partial evidence that COPD is expressed differently in women than in men, namely on symptoms, pulmonary function, exacerbations, comorbidities or prognosis. There is a need to improve the characterization of COPD in females. Methods: We obtained and pooled data of 17 139 patients from 22 COPD cohorts and analysed the clinical differences by sex, establishing the relationship between these characteristics in women and the prognosis and severity of the disease. Comparisons were established with standard statistics and survival analysis, including crude and multivariate Cox-regression analysis. Results: Overall, 5355 (31.2%) women were compared with men with COPD. Women were younger, had lower pack-years, greater FEV1%, lower BMI and a greater number of exacerbations (all p &lt; 0.05). On symptoms, women reported more dyspnea, equal cough but less expectoration (p &lt; 0.001). There were no differences in the BODE index score in women (2.4) versus men (2.4) (p = 0.5), but the distribution of all BODE components was highly variable by sex within different thresholds of BODE. On prognosis, 5-year survival was higher in COPD females (86.9%) than in males (76.3%), p &lt; 0.001, in all patients and within each of the specific comorbidities that we assessed. The crude and adjusted RR and 95% C.I. for death in males was 1.82 (1.69–1.96) and 1.73 (1.50–2.00), respectively. Conclusions: COPD in women has some characteristic traits expressed differently than compared to men, mainly with more dyspnea and COPD exacerbations and less phlegm, among others, although long-term survival appears better in female COPD patients

COSMOS: the dialysis scenario of CKD-MBD in Europe

Background Chronic kidney disease-mineral and bone disorders (CKD-MBD) are important complications of CKD5D patients that are associated with mortality. Methods COSMOS is a multicentre, open cohort, prospective, observational 3-year study carried out in haemodialysis patients from 20 European countries during 2005-07. The present article describes the main characteristics of the European dialysis population, the current practice for the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism and the differences across different European regions. Results The haemodialysis population in Europe is an aged population (mean age 64.8 ± 14.2 years) with a high prevalence of diabetes (29.5%) and cardiovascular disease (76.0%), and 28.7% of patients have been on haemodialysis more than 5 years. Patients from the former Eastern countries are younger (59.3 ± 14.3 versus 66.0 ± 13.9), having a lower proportion of diabetics (24.1 versus 30.7%). There were relevant differences in the frequency of measurement of the main CKD-MBD biochemical parameters [Ca, P and parathyroid hormone (PTH)] and the Eastern countries showed a poorer control of these biochemical parameters (K/DOQI and K/DIGO targets). Overall, 48.0% of the haemodialysis patients received active vitamin D treatment. Calcitriol use doubled that of alfacalcidiol in the Mediterranean countries, whereas the opposite was found in the non-Mediterranean countries. The criteria followed to perform parathyroidectomy were different across Europe. In the Mediterranean countries, the level of serum PTH considered to perform parathyroidectomy was higher than in non-Mediterranean countries; as a result, in the latter, more parathyroidectomies were performed in the year previous to inclusion to COSMOS. Conclusions The COSMOS baseline results show important differences across Europe in the management of CKD-MB

Predicting non-invasive ventilation failure in children from the SpO₂/FiO₂ (SF) ratio

PURPOSE: Our objective was to assess whether SpO₂/FiO₂ (SF) ratio could be a useful NIV outcome predictor in children with acute respiratory failure (ARF) and tried to develop a predictive model of NIV failure. METHODS: Prospective, observational, multicenter study. Episodes of ARF-fulfilling inclusion criteria from 15 January 2010 to 14 January 2011 were treated with NIV according to a pre-established protocol. Clinical variables were collected at baseline and at 1, 2, 6, 12 and 24 h. Failure criterion was the need for endotracheal intubation. Failures were considered as "early" if occurring ≤6 h after NIV initiation, "intermediate" if occurring between 6 and 24 h, and "late" if occurring after 24 h. Variables with a p < 0.1 in univariate analysis corrected by age were included in multivariate analysis. Models were calculated based on multivariate analysis. RESULTS: During the study period, 390 episodes were included. NIV success rate was 81.3 %. Among ARF causes, failure occurred most frequently in ARDS episodes. The failure predictive model for the whole sample included SF ratio at 1 h, age and PRISM III-24 (area under the curve AUC of 0.755). For early NIV failures, SF ratio at 1 h was the only variable within model (AUC 0.748). The analysis of intermediate NIV failures identified 3 variables independently linked to NIV outcome: PRISM III-24, RR decrease at 6 h, and SF ratio at 6 h (AUC 0.895). No model was identified for late NIV failure. CONCLUSIONS: SF ratio is a reliable predictor of early NIV failure in children

Finding the best thresholds of FEV1 and dyspnea to predict 5-year survival in COPD patients: the COCOMICS study

BACKGROUND: FEV1 is universally used as a measure of severity in COPD. Current thresholds are based on expert opinion and not on evidence. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify the best FEV1 (% predicted) and dyspnea (mMRC) thresholds to predict 5-yr survival in COPD patients. DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a patient-based pooled analysis of eleven COPD Spanish cohorts (COCOMICS). Survival analysis, ROC curves, and C-statistics were used to identify and compare the best FEV1 (%) and mMRC scale thresholds that predict 5-yr survival. RESULTS: A total of 3,633 patients (93% men), totaling 15,878 person-yrs. were included, with a mean age 66.4 ± 9.7, and predicted FEV1 of 53.8% (± 19.4%). Overall 975 (28.1%) patients died at 5 years. The best thresholds that spirometrically split the COPD population were: mild ≥ 70%, moderate 56-69%, severe 36-55%, and very severe ≤ 35%. Survival at 5 years was 0.89 for patients with FEV1 ≥ 70 vs. 0.46 in patients with FEV1 ≤ 35% (H.R: 6; 95% C.I.: 4.69-7.74). The new classification predicts mortality significantly better than dyspnea (mMRC) or FEV1 GOLD and BODE cutoffs (all p<0.001). Prognostic reliability is maintained at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. In younger patients, survival was similar for FEV1 (%) values between 70% and 100%, whereas in the elderly the relationship between FEV1 (%) and mortality was inversely linear. CONCLUSIONS: The best thresholds for 5-yr survival were obtained stratifying FEV1 (%) by ≥ 70%, 56-69%, 36-55%, and ≤ 35%. These cutoffs significantly better predict mortality than mMRC or FEV1 (%) GOLD and BODE cutoffs