Identifying the Machine Learning Family from Black-Box Models

[EN] We address the novel question of determining which kind of machine learning model is behind the predictions when we interact with a black-box model. This may allow us to identify families of techniques whose models exhibit similar vulnerabilities and strengths. In our method, we first consider how an adversary can systematically query a given black-box model (oracle) to label an artificially-generated dataset. This labelled dataset is then used for training different surrogate models (each one trying to imitate the oracle¿s behaviour). The method has two different approaches. First, we assume that the family of the surrogate model that achieves the maximum Kappa metric against the oracle labels corresponds to the family of the oracle model. The other approach, based on machine learning, consists in learning a meta-model that is able to predict the model family of a new black-box model. We compare these two approaches experimentally, giving us insight about how explanatory and predictable our concept of family is.This material is based upon work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under award number FA9550-17-1-0287, the EU (FEDER), and the Spanish MINECO under grant TIN 2015-69175-C4-1-R, the Generalitat Valenciana PROMETEOII/2015/013. F. Martinez-Plumed was also supported by INCIBE under grant INCIBEI-2015-27345 (Ayudas para la excelencia de los equipos de investigacion avanzada en ciberseguridad). J. H-Orallo also received a Salvador de Madariaga grant (PRX17/00467) from the Spanish MECD for a research stay at the CFI, Cambridge, and a BEST grant (BEST/2017/045) from the GVA for another research stay at the CFI.Fabra-Boluda, R.; Ferri Ramírez, C.; Hernández-Orallo, J.; Martínez-Plumed, F.; Ramírez Quintana, MJ. (2018). Identifying the Machine Learning Family from Black-Box Models. 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Synergies for Improving Oil Palm Production and Forest Conservation in Floodplain Landscapes

Lowland tropical forests are increasingly threatened with conversion to oil palm as global demand and high profit drives crop expansion throughout the world’s tropical regions. Yet, landscapes are not homogeneous and regional constraints dictate land suitability for this crop. We conducted a regional study to investigate spatial and economic components of forest conversion to oil palm within a tropical floodplain in the Lower Kinabatangan, Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. The Kinabatangan ecosystem harbours significant biodiversity with globally threatened species but has suffered forest loss and fragmentation. We mapped the oil palm and forested landscapes (using object-based-image analysis, classification and regression tree analysis and on-screen digitising of high-resolution imagery) and undertook economic modelling. Within the study region (520,269 ha), 250,617 ha is cultivated with oil palm with 77% having high Net-Present-Value (NPV) estimates ($413/ha?yr–$637/ha?yr); but 20.5% is under-producing. In fact 6.3% (15,810 ha) of oil palm is commercially redundant (with negative NPV of $-299/ha?yr-$-65/ha?yr) due to palm mortality from flood inundation. These areas would have been important riparian or flooded forest types. Moreover, 30,173 ha of unprotected forest remain and despite its value for connectivity and biodiversity 64% is allocated for future oil palm. However, we estimate that at minimum 54% of these forests are unsuitable for this crop due to inundation events. If conversion to oil palm occurs, we predict a further 16,207 ha will become commercially redundant. This means that over 32,000 ha of forest within the floodplain would have been converted for little or no financial gain yet with significant cost to the ecosystem. Our findings have globally relevant implications for similar floodplain landscapes undergoing forest transformation to agriculture such as oil palm. Understanding landscape level constraints to this crop, and transferring these into policy and practice, may provide conservation and economic opportunities within these seemingly high opportunity cost landscapes

Astrobiological Complexity with Probabilistic Cellular Automata

Search for extraterrestrial life and intelligence constitutes one of the major endeavors in science, but has yet been quantitatively modeled only rarely and in a cursory and superficial fashion. We argue that probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) represent the best quantitative framework for modeling astrobiological history of the Milky Way and its Galactic Habitable Zone. The relevant astrobiological parameters are to be modeled as the elements of the input probability matrix for the PCA kernel. With the underlying simplicity of the cellular automata constructs, this approach enables a quick analysis of large and ambiguous input parameters' space. We perform a simple clustering analysis of typical astrobiological histories and discuss the relevant boundary conditions of practical importance for planning and guiding actual empirical astrobiological and SETI projects. In addition to showing how the present framework is adaptable to more complex situations and updated observational databases from current and near-future space missions, we demonstrate how numerical results could offer a cautious rationale for continuation of practical SETI searches.Comment: 37 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables; added journal reference belo

Genetic Background Can Result in a Marked or Minimal Effect of Gene Knockout (GPR55 and CB2 Receptor) in Experimental Autoimmune Encephalomyelitis Models of Multiple Sclerosis

PMCID: PMC379391

Abundance, movements and biodiversity of flying predatory insects in crop and non-crop agroecosystems

[EN] Predatory insects are key natural enemies that can highly reduce crops pest damage. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the movements of flying predatory insects in agroecosystems throughout the year. In particular, it is still unclear how these predators move from crop to non-crop habitats, which are the preferred habitats to overwinter and to spread during the spring and if these predators leave or stay after chemical treatments. Here, the Neuroptera, a generalist, highly mobile, flying predator order of insects, was selected as model. We studied the effects of farming management and the efficiency of edge shelterbelts, ground cover vegetation, and fruit trees canopy on holding flying predatory insects in Mediterranean traditional agroecosystems. Seasonal movements and winter effects were also assessed. We evaluated monthly nine fruit agroecosystems, six organic, and three pesticides sprayed, of 0.5-1 ha in eastern Spain during 3 years using two complementary methods, yellow sticky traps and aspirator. Results show surprisingly that the insect abundance was highest in pesticide sprayed systems, with 3.40 insects/sample versus 2.32 insects/sample in organic systems. The biodiversity indices were highest in agroecosystems conducted under organic management, with S of 4.68 and D of 2.34. Shelterbelts showed highest biodiversity indices, S of 3.27 and D of 1.93, among insect habitats. Insect species whose adults were active during the winter preferred fruit trees to spend all year round. However, numerous species moved from fruit trees to shelterbelts to overwinter and dispersed into the orchard during the following spring. The ground cover vegetation showed statistically much lower attractiveness for flying predatory insects than other habitats. Shelterbelts should therefore be the first option in terms of investment in ecological infrastructures enhancing flying predators.Sorribas Mellado, JJ.; González Cavero, S.; Domínguez Gento, A.; Vercher Aznar, R. (2016). Abundance, movements and biodiversity of flying predatory insects in crop and non-crop agroecosystems. Agronomy for Sustainable Development. 36(2). doi:10.1007/s13593-016-0360-3S362Altieri MA, Letourneau DK (1982) Vegetation management and biological control in agroecosystems. Crop Prot 1:405–430. doi: 10.1016/0261-2194(82)90023-0Altieri MA, Schmidt LL (1986) The dynamics of colonizing arthropod communities at the interface of abandoned, organic and commercial apple orchards and adjacent woodland habitats. Agric Ecosyst Environ 16:29–43. doi: 10.1016/0167-8809(86)90073-3Bengtsson J, Ahnström J, Weibull A (2005) The effects of organic agriculture on biodiversity and abundance: a meta-analysis. J App Ecol 42:261–269. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2005.01005.xBianchi F, Booij CJH, Tscharntke T (2006) Sustainable pest regulation in agricultural landscapes: a review on landscape composition, biodiversity and natural pest control. Proc R Soc B 273:1715–1727. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2006.3530Chaplin-Kramer RM, Rourke E, Blitzer EJ, Kremen C (2011) A meta-analysis of crop pest and natural enemy response to landscape complexity. Ecol Lett 14:922–932. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01642.xCrowder DW, Northfield TD, Strand MR, Snyder WE (2010) Organic agriculture promotes evenness and natural pest control. Nature 466:109–112. doi: 10.1038/nature09183Dogramaci M, DeBano SJ, Kimoto C, Wooster DE (2011) A backpack-mounted suction apparatus for collecting arthropods from various habitats and vegetation. Entomol Exp et Appl 139:86–90. doi: 10.1111/j.1570-7458.2011.01099.xDuelli P, Studer M, Marchland I, Jakob S (1990) Population movements of arthropods between natural and cultivated areas. Biol Conserv 54:193–207. doi: 10.1016/0006-3207(90)90051-PEilenberg J, Hajek A, Lomer C (2001) Suggestions for unifying the terminology in biological control. BioControl 46:387–400. doi: 10.1023/A:1014193329979Forman RTT, Baudry J (1984) Hedgerows and hedgerow networks in landscape ecology. Environ Manage 8:495–510. doi: 10.1007/BF01871575Gurr GM, Wratten SD, Luna JM (2003) Multi-function agricultural biodiversity: pest management and other benefits. Basic Appl Ecol 4:107–116. doi: 10.1078/1439-1791-00122Hole DG, Perkins AJ et al (2005) Does organic farming benefit biodiversity? Biol Conserv 122:113–130. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2004.07.018Landis DA, Wratten SD, Gurr GM (2000) Habitat management to conserve natural enemies of arthropod pests in agriculture. Annu Rev Entomol 45:175–201. doi: 10.1146/annurev.ento.45.1.175Long RF, Corbett A, Lamb C, Reberg-Horton C, Chandler J, Stimmann M (1998) Beneficial insects move from flowering plants to nearby crops. Calif Agr 52:23–26. doi: 10.3733/ca.v052n05p23Östman Ö, Ekbom B, Bengtsson J (2001) Landscape heterogeneity and farming practice influence biological control. Basic App Ecol 2:365–371. doi: 10.1078/1439-1791-00072Pantaleoni RA, Ticchiati V (1988) I Neurotteri delle colture agrarie: osservazioni sulle fluttuazioni stagionali di populazione in frutteti. Boll dell’Ist di Entomol 43:43–57Panzer R, Schwartz MW (1998) Effectiveness of a vegetation-based approach to insect conservation. Conserv Biol 12:693–702. doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.1998.97051.xParedes D, Cayuela L, Gurr G, Campos M (2013) Effect of non-crop vegetation types on conservation biological control of pests in olive groves. PeerJ 1:1–16. doi: 10.7717/peerj.116Pekar S, Michalko R, Loverre P, Líznarová E, Cernecká L (2015) Biological control in winter: novel evidence for the importance of generalist predators. J Appl Ecol 52:270–279. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12363Pollard KA, Holland JM (2006) Arthropods within the woody element of hedgerows and their distribution pattern. Agric Forest Entomol 8:203–211. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-9563.2006.00297.xRand TA, Tylianakis JM, Tscharntke T (2006) Spillover edge effects: the dispersal of agriculturally subsidized insect natural enemies into adjacent natural habitats. Ecol Lett 9:603–614. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00911.xSilva EB, Franco JC, Vasconcelos T, Branco M (2010) Effect of ground cover vegetation on the abundance and diversity of beneficial arthropods in citrus orchards. Bull Entomol Res 100:489–499. doi: 10.1017/S0007485309990526Smukler SM, Sánchez-Moreno S et al (2010) Biodiversity and multiple ecosystem functions in an organic farmscape. Agric Ecosyst Environ 139:80–97. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2010.07.004Stelzl M, Devetak D (1999) Neuroptera in agricultural ecosystems. Agric Ecosyst Environ 74:305–321. doi: 10.1016/S0167-8809(99)00040-7Straub CS, Finke DL, Snyder WE (2008) Are the conservation of natural enemy biodiversity and biological control compatible goals? Biol Control 45:225–237. doi: 10.1016/j.biocontrol.2007.05.013Thierry D, Deutsch B, Paulian M, Villenave J, Canard M (2005) Typifying ecosystems by using green lacewing assemblages. Agron Sustain Dev 25:473–479. doi: 10.1051/agro:2005047Thomas CFG, Parkinson L, Griffiths GJK, García AF, Marshall EJP (2001) Aggregation and temporal stability of carabid beetle distributions in field and hedgerow habitats. J App Ecol 38:100–116. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2664.2001.00574.xVillenave J, Thierry D, Mamun A, Lode T, Rat-Morris E (2005) The pollens consumed by common green lacewings Chrysoperla spp. in cabbage crop environment in western France. Eur J Entomol 02:547–552, 10.14411/eje.2005.078You M, Hou Y, Liu Y, Yang G, Li Z, Cai H (2004) Non-crop habitat manipulation and integrated pest management in agroecosystems. Acta Entomol Sinica 47:260–268 (http://www.insect.org.cn/EN/Y2004/V47/I2/260

Post-traumatic glenohumeral cartilage lesions: a systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Any cartilage damage to the glenohumeral joint should be avoided, as these damages may result in osteoarthritis of the shoulder. To understand the pathomechanism leading to shoulder cartilage damage, we conducted a systematic review on the subject of articular cartilage lesions caused by traumas where non impression fracture of the subchondral bone is present.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>PubMed (MEDLINE), ScienceDirect (EMBASE, BIOBASE, BIOSIS Previews) and the COCHRANE database of systematic reviews were systematically scanned using a defined search strategy to identify relevant articles in this field of research. First selection was done based on abstracts according to specific criteria, where the methodological quality in selected full text articles was assessed by two reviewers. Agreement between raters was investigated using percentage agreement and Cohen's Kappa statistic. The traumatic events were divided into two categories: 1) acute trauma which refers to any single impact situation which directly damages the articular cartilage, and 2) chronic trauma which means cartilage lesions due to overuse or disuse of the shoulder joint.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The agreement on data quality between the two reviewers was 93% with a Kappa value of 0.79 indicating an agreement considered to be 'substantial'. It was found that acute trauma on the shoulder causes humeral articular cartilage to disrupt from the underlying bone. The pathomechanism is said to be due to compression or shearing, which can be caused by a sudden subluxation or dislocation. However, such impact lesions are rarely reported. In the case of chronic trauma glenohumeral cartilage degeneration is a result of overuse and is associated to other shoulder joint pathologies. In these latter cases it is the rotator cuff which is injured first. This can result in instability and consequent impingement which may progress to glenohumeral cartilage damage.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The great majority of glenohumeral cartilage lesions without any bony lesions are the results of overuse. Glenohumeral cartilage lesions with an intact subchondral bone and caused by an acute trauma are either rare or overlooked. And at increased risk for such cartilage lesions are active sportsmen with high shoulder demand or athletes prone to shoulder injury.</p

Dental erosive wear and salivary flow rate in physically active young adults

Background Little attention has been directed towards identifying the relationship between physical exercise, dental erosive wear and salivary secretion. The study aimed i) to describe the prevalence and severity of dental erosive wear among a group of physically active young adults, ii) to describe the patterns of dietary consumption and lifestyle among these individuals and iii) to study possible effect of exercise on salivary flow rate. Methods Young members (age range 18-32 years) of a fitness-centre were invited to participate in the study. Inclusion criteria were healthy young adults training hard at least twice a week. A non-exercising comparison group was selected from an ongoing study among 18-year-olds. Two hundred and twenty participants accepted an intraoral examination and completed a questionnaire. Seventy of the exercising participants provided saliva samples. The examination was performed at the fitness-centre or at a dental clinic (comparison group), using tested erosive wear system (VEDE). Saliva sampling (unstimulated and stimulated) was performed before and after exercise. Occlusal surfaces of the first molars in both jaws and the labial and palatal surfaces of the upper incisors and canines were selected as index teeth. Results Dental erosive wear was registered in 64% of the exercising participants, more often in the older age group, and in 20% of the comparison group. Enamel lesions were most observed in the upper central incisors (33%); dentine lesions in lower first molar (27%). One fourth of the participants had erosive wear into dentine, significantly more in males than in females (p = 0.047). More participants with erosive wear had decreased salivary flow during exercise compared with the non-erosion group (p < 0.01). The stimulated salivary flow rate was in the lower rage (≤ 1 ml/min) among more than one third of the participants, and more erosive lesions were registered than in subjects with higher flow rates (p < 0.01). Conclusion The study showed that a high proportion of physically active young adults have erosive lesions and indicate that hard exercise and decreased stimulated salivary flow rate may be associated with such wear

Inter- and intraobserver reliability of the MTM-classification for proximal humeral fractures: A prospective study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A precise modular topographic-morphological (MTM) classification for proximal humeral fractures may address current classification problems. The classification was developed to evaluate whether a very detailed classification exceeding the analysis of fractured parts may be a valuable tool.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Three observers classified plain radiographs of 22 fractures using both a simple version (fracture displacement, number of parts) and an extensive version (individual topographic fracture type and morphology) of the MTM classification. Kappa-statistics were used to determine reliability.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An acceptable reliability was found for the simple version classifying fracture displacement and fractured main parts. Fair interobserver agreement was found for the extensive version with individual topographic fracture type and morphology.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although the MTM-classification covers a wide spectrum of fracture types, our results indicate that the precise topographic and morphological description is not delivering reproducible results. Therefore, simplicity in fracture classification may be more useful than extensive approaches, which are not adequately reliable to address current classification problems.</p

Assessing the Quality of Goal Setting in Behavioural Support for Smoking Cessation and its Association with Outcomes

BACKGROUND: Smoking cessation behavioural support can be effective but practitioners differ markedly in effectiveness, possibly due to variation in the quality of delivery of key behaviour change techniques, such as goal setting (i.e. setting a quit date). OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to (i) develop a reliable method for assessing the quality of practitioners' support in setting quit dates and (ii) assess whether quality predicts initiation of abstinence as a first step to quitting. METHODS: A scale for scoring the quality of goal setting was developed from national guidance documents and applied to 85 transcribed behavioural support sessions. Inter-rater reliability was assessed. Associations between quality scores and quit attempts were assessed. RESULTS: The 10-item scale produced had good inter-rater reliability (Kappa = 0.68). Higher quality goal setting was associated with increased self-reported quit attempts (p < .001; OR = 2.60, 95 % CI 1.54-4.40). The scale components 'set a clear quit date' (χ (2) (2, N = 85) = 22.3, p < .001) and 'within an appropriate timeframe' (χ (2) (2, N = 85) = 15.5, p < .001) were independently associated with quit attempts. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to reliably assess the quality of goal setting in smoking cessation behavioural support. Higher quality of goal setting is associated with greater likelihood of initiating quit attempts