Comparison of equipment used to measure shear properties in equine arena surfaces

The design of a novel apparatus, the Glen Withy torque tester (GWTT), for measuring horizontal shear properties in equine sport surfaces is described. Previous research has considered the effect of vertical loading on equine performance and injury but only limited discussion has concerned the grip or horizontal motion of the hoof. The horizontal support of the hoof by the surface must be sufficient to avoid excess slip without overloading the limb. The GWTT measures the torque necessary to twist an artificial hoof that is being pushed into the surface under a consistently applied vertical load. Its output was validated using a steel surface, then was used to test two sand and fibre surfaces (waxed and non-waxed) through rotations of 40–140°, and vertical loads of 157–1138 N. An Orono biomechanical surface tester (OBST) measured longitudinal shear and vertical force, whilst a traction tester measured rotational shear after being dropped onto the surfaces. A weak, but significant, linear relationship was found between rotational shear measured using the GWTT and longitudinal shear quantified using the OBST. However, only the GWTT was able to detect significant differences in shear resistance between the surfaces. Future work should continue to investigate the strain rate and non-linear load response of surfaces used in equestrian sports. Measurements should be closely tied to horse biomechanics and should include information on the maintenance condition and surface composition. Both the GWTT and the OBST are necessary to adequately characterise all the important functional properties of equine sport surfaces

Decline of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Oxfordshire hospitals is strain-specific and preceded infection-control intensification

Background In the past, strains of Staphylococcus aureus have evolved, expanded, made a marked clinical impact and then disappeared over several years. Faced with rising meticillin-resistant S aureus (MRSA) rates, UK government-supported infection control interventions were rolled out in Oxford Radcliffe Hospitals NHS Trust from 2006 onwards. Methods Using an electronic Database, the authors identified isolation of MRS among 611 434 hospital inpatients admitted to acute hospitals in Oxford, UK, 1 April 1998 to 30 June 2010. Isolation rates were modelled using segmented negative binomial regression for three groups of isolates: from blood cultures, from samples suggesting invasion (eg, cerebrospinal fluid, joint fluid, pus samples) and from surface swabs (eg, from wounds). Findings MRSA isolation rates rose rapidly from 1998 to the end of 2003 (annual increase from blood cultures 23%, 95% CI 16% to 30%), and then declined. The decline accelerated from mid-2006 onwards (annual decrease post-2006 38% from blood cultures, 95% CI 29% to 45%, p=0.003 vs previous decline). Rates of meticillin-sensitive S aureus changed little by comparison, with no evidence for declines 2006 onward (p=0.40); by 2010, sensitive S aureus was far more common than MRSA (blood cultures: 2.9 vs 0.25; invasive samples 14.7 vs 2.0 per 10 000 bedstays). Interestingly, trends in isolation of erythromycin-sensitive and resistant MRSA differed. Erythromycin-sensitive strains rose significantly faster (eg, from blood cultures p=0.002), and declined significantly more slowly (p=0.002), than erythromycin-resistant strains (global p<0.0001). Bacterial typing suggests this reflects differential spread of two major UK MRSA strains (ST22/36), ST36 having declined markedly 2006-2010, with ST22 becoming the dominant MRSA strain. Conclusions MRSA isolation rates were falling before recent intensification of infection-control measures. This, together with strain-specific changes in MRSA isolation, strongly suggests that incompletely understood biological factors are responsible for the much recent variation in MRSA isolation. A major, mainly meticillin-sensitive, S aureus burden remains

Relationship between plasma sialic acid and fibrinogen concentration and incident micro- and macrovascular complications in type 1 diabetes. The EURODIAB Prospective Complications Study (PCS)

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Type 1 diabetes is associated with an increased risk of vascular complications. This increased risk could be explained by sialic acid and/or fibrinogen. It is also not clear what explains the abolition of sex-related differences affecting risk of CHD in the presence of type 1 diabetes. Therefore, we examined whether fibrinogen and sialic acid are related to incident micro- and macrovascular complications in patients with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: A subset (n=2329) of the EURODIAB Prospective Complications Study was analysed. Sialic acid and fibrinogen concentrations were measured at baseline. The main outcomes after 7 years were development of albuminuria, retinopathy, neuropathy and CHD. RESULTS: Univariable and multivariable models using Cox proportional survival analyses showed that an SD unit increase in sialic acid and fibrinogen levels was significantly associated with CHD in men only. Adjusted standardised hazard ratios (sHRs) were 1.50 (95% CI 1.05-2.15) and 1.40 (95% CI 1.06-1.86) for sialic acid and fibrinogen, respectively. Initial associations between (1) sialic acid and incident retinopathy [standardised odds ratio (sOR) men 1.68, 95% CI 1.10-2.57], (2) fibrinogen and retinopathy (sOR women 1.37, 95% CI 1.06-1.78) and (3) sialic acid and neuropathy (sOR men 1.37, 95% CI 1.06-1.77) were shown, but became non-significant in multivariable models. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Sialic acid and fibrinogen are strong predictors of CHD in men with type 1 diabetes, beyond the effect of established risk factors. The associations found with microvascular complications were not independent of other risk factors

The scale dependence and structure of convergence fields preceding the initiation of deep convection

Links between convergence and convection are poor in global models, and poor representation of convection is the source of many model biases in the tropics. State-of-the-art convection-permitting simulations allow us to analyze realistic convection statistically. The analysis of fractal dimension is used to show that in convection-permitting simulations (grid spacings 1.5, 4, and 12 km) of the West African monsoon, 50% of deep convective initiations occur in the near vicinity of low-level boundary layer convergence lines that are orientated along the mean wind. In these simulations, more than 80% of the initiations occur within large-scale (300 × 300 km) convergence, with some 20% in large-scale divergence, and almost all cases occur within local scale (60 × 60 km) convergence. The behavior alters in a simulation with a convection scheme and a grid spacing of 12 km; initiation is less frequent over convergence lines, and there is less dependency on high-magnitude low-level local convergence. Key Points Fifty percent of storms initiate along convergence lines Most initiations occur in large and local scale convergence Parameterized convection exhibits a weaker dependence on strong convergence ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Improving the representativeness of UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey through spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification

Population-representative estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence and antibody levels in specific geographic areas at different time points are needed to optimise policy responses. However, even population-wide surveys are potentially impacted by biases arising from differences in participation rates across key groups. Here, we used spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification models to UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) to obtain representative estimates of PCR positivity (6,496,052 tests) and antibody prevalence (1,941,333 tests) for different regions, ages and ethnicities (7-December-2020 to 4-May-2022). Not accounting for vaccination status through post-stratification led to small underestimation of PCR positivity, but more substantial overestimations of antibody levels in the population (up to 21 percentage points), particularly in groups with low vaccine uptake in the general population. There was marked variation in the relative contribution of different areas and age-groups to each wave. Future analyses of infectious disease surveys should take into account major drivers of outcomes of interest that may also influence participation, with vaccination being an important factor to consider

Impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation and equatorial waves on tracked mesoscale convective systems over southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is a region dominated by high-impact weather, but numerical weather prediction here is a challenge owing to the complex orography and interactions between small- and large-scale phenomena. Localised mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) can produce intense precipitation. Here, we track MCSs over a 5-year period in Himawari satellite data, characterise the distribution of MCSs in the region, and investigate how they are modulated by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and equatorial waves. Between 10°S and 10°N in southeast Asia, MCSs account for 45–70% of the precipitation during boreal extended winter (November–April). Over most of the region, the fractional MCS contribution to rainfall is higher than average on days with extreme rainfall (>55%). Long-lived (>12 hr) MCSs contribute disproportionately, providing 85% of the rainfall despite comprising only 34% of all MCSs. Variability in MCS rainfall accounts for >50% of the total rainfall variability during an MJO cycle, mostly due to larger numbers of MCSs in convectively active MJO phases. Variations in MCS size and mean rain rate due to shifts in the stratiform proportion provide compensating effects. In the west of the region, a shift to faster moving MCSs in active MJO phases and slower moving MCSs in inactive phases resulted in fast-moving MCSs having the greatest impact on the MJO-associated variability. Variability is larger in the west than in the east. Equatorial Kelvin waves modulate MCS rainfall, with MCSs accounting for 20–50% of local rainfall anomalies. This variability is again enhanced in the west. By contrast, rainfall anomalies due to westward-propagating mixed Rossby–gravity waves and Rossby-1 waves are dominated by tropical-cyclone-related rainfall. Skill at local scales may be extracted from forecasts of subseasonal drivers such as the MJO and Kelvin waves, by understanding how these modulate the number and characteristics of MCSs

A pilot study of rapid benchtop sequencing of Staphylococcus aureus and Clostridium difficile for outbreak detection and surveillance

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prospects of newly available benchtop sequencers to provide rapid whole-genome data in routine clinical practice. Next-generation sequencing has the potential to resolve uncertainties surrounding the route and timing of person-to-person transmission of healthcare-associated infection, which has been a major impediment to optimal management. DESIGN: The authors used Illumina MiSeq benchtop sequencing to undertake case studies investigating potential outbreaks of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Clostridium difficile. SETTING: Isolates were obtained from potential outbreaks associated with three UK hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Isolates were sequenced from a cluster of eight MRSA carriers and an associated bacteraemia case in an intensive care unit, another MRSA cluster of six cases and two clusters of C difficile. Additionally, all C difficile isolates from cases over 6 weeks in a single hospital were rapidly sequenced and compared with local strain sequences obtained in the preceding 3 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Whole-genome genetic relatedness of the isolates within each epidemiological cluster. RESULTS: Twenty-six MRSA and 15 C difficile isolates were successfully sequenced and analysed within 5 days of culture. Both MRSA clusters were identified as outbreaks, with most sequences in each cluster indistinguishable and all within three single nucleotide variants (SNVs). Epidemiologically unrelated isolates of the same spa-type were genetically distinct (≥21 SNVs). In both C difficile clusters, closely epidemiologically linked cases (in one case sharing the same strain type) were shown to be genetically distinct (≥144 SNVs). A reconstruction applying rapid sequencing in C difficile surveillance provided early outbreak detection and identified previously undetected probable community transmission. CONCLUSIONS: This benchtop sequencing technology is widely generalisable to human bacterial pathogens. The findings provide several good examples of how rapid and precise sequencing could transform identification of transmission of healthcare-associated infection and therefore improve hospital infection control and patient outcomes in routine clinical practice

Relationship between bacterial strain type, host biomarkers, and mortality in clostridium difficile infection

Background: Despite substantial interest in biomarkers, their impact on clinical outcomes and variation with bacterial strain has rarely been explored using integrated databases. Methods: From September 2006 to May 2011, strains isolated from Clostridium difficile toxin enzyme immunoassay (EIA)-positive fecal samples from Oxfordshire, United Kingdom (approximately 600 000 people) underwent multilocus sequence typing. Fourteen-day mortality and levels of 15 baseline biomarkers were compared between consecutive C. difficile infections (CDIs) from different clades/sequence types (STs) and EIA-negative controls using Cox and normal regression adjusted for demographic/clinical factors. Results: Fourteen-day mortality was 13% in 2222 adults with 2745 EIA-positive samples (median, 78 years) vs 5% in 20 722 adults with 27 550 EIA-negative samples (median, 74 years) (absolute attributable mortality, 7.7%; 95% CI, 6.4%-9.0%). Mortality was highest in clade 5 CDIs (25% [16 of 63]; polymerase chain reaction (PCR) ribotype 078/ST 11), then clade 2 (20% [111 of 560]; 99% PCR ribotype 027/ST 1) versus clade 1 (12% [137 of 1168]; adjusted P <. 0001). Within clade 1, 14-day mortality was only 4% (3 of 84) in ST 44 (PCR ribotype 015) (adjusted P =. 05 vs other clade 1). Mean baseline neutrophil counts also varied significantly by genotype: 12.4, 11.6, and 9.5 × 109 neutrophils/L for clades 5, 2 and 1, respectively, vs 7.0 × 109 neutrophils/L in EIA-negative controls (P <. 0001) and 7.9 × 109 neutrophils/L in ST 44 (P =. 08). There were strong associations between C. difficile-type-specific effects on mortality and neutrophil/white cell counts (rho = 0.48), C-reactive-protein (rho = 0.43), eosinophil counts (rho =-0.45), and serum albumin (rho =-0.47). Biomarkers predicted 30%-40% of clade-specific mortality differences. Conclusions: C. difficile genotype predicts mortality, and excess mortality correlates with genotype-specific changes in biomarkers, strongly implicating inflammatory pathways as a major influence on poor outcome after CDI. PCR ribotype 078/ST 11 (clade 5) leads to severe CDI; thus ongoing surveillance remains essential

Effects of control interventions on Clostridium difficile infection in England: an observational study

Background: The control of Clostridium difficile infections is an international clinical challenge. The incidence of C difficile in England declined by roughly 80% after 2006, following the implementation of national control policies; we tested two hypotheses to investigate their role in this decline. First, if C difficile infection declines in England were driven by reductions in use of particular antibiotics, then incidence of C difficile infections caused by resistant isolates should decline faster than that caused by susceptible isolates across multiple genotypes. Second, if C difficile infection declines were driven by improvements in hospital infection control, then transmitted (secondary) cases should decline regardless of susceptibility. Methods: Regional (Oxfordshire and Leeds, UK) and national data for the incidence of C difficile infections and antimicrobial prescribing data (1998–2014) were combined with whole genome sequences from 4045 national and international C difficile isolates. Genotype (multilocus sequence type) and fluoroquinolone susceptibility were determined from whole genome sequences. The incidence of C difficile infections caused by fluoroquinolone-resistant and fluoroquinolone-susceptible isolates was estimated with negative-binomial regression, overall and per genotype. Selection and transmission were investigated with phylogenetic analyses. Findings: National fluoroquinolone and cephalosporin prescribing correlated highly with incidence of C difficile infections (cross-correlations >0·88), by contrast with total antibiotic prescribing (cross-correlations 0·2). Interpretation: Restricting fluoroquinolone prescribing appears to explain the decline in incidence of C difficile infections, above other measures, in Oxfordshire and Leeds, England. Antimicrobial stewardship should be a central component of C difficile infection control programmes