Reconciling unevenly sampled paleoclimate proxies: a Gaussian kernel correlation multiproxy reconstruction

Reconstructing past hydroclimatic variability using climate-sensitive paleoclimate proxies provides context to our relatively short instrumental climate records and a baseline from which to assess the impacts of human-induced climate change. However, many approaches to reconstructing climate are limited in their ability to address sampling variability inherent in different climate proxies. We iteratively optimise an ensemble of possible reconstruction data series to maximise the Gaussian kernel correlation of Rehfeld et al. (2011) which reconciles differences in the temporal resolution of both the target variable and proxies or covariates. The reconstruction method is evaluated using synthetic data with different degrees of sampling variability and noise. Two examples using paleoclimate proxy records and a third using instrumental rainfall data with missing values are used to demonstrate the utility of the method. While the Gaussian kernel correlation method is relatively computationally expensive, it is shown to be robust under a range of data characteristics and will therefore be valuable in analyses seeking to employ multiple input proxies or covariates

Common Issues in Verification of Climate Forecasts and Projections

With increased interest in climate forecasts and projections, it is important to understand more about their sources and levels of skill. A starting point here is to describe the nature of the skill associated with forecasts and projections. Climate forecasts and projections typically both include time varying forcing of the climate, but only forecasts have initial conditions set close to the observed climate state. Climate forecasts therefore derive skill from both initial conditions and from forcing. The character of the initial condition skill and forcing skill is different. Skill from initial conditions results in a narrowing of expectations relative to a climatological distribution and points toward a more favoured part of the distribution. Forcing skill could result from a shift in the preferred parts of the climatological distribution in response to forcing, or it could result from a shift in the entire distribution, or both. Assessments of forcing skill require time averages of the target variable that are long enough so that the contributions from internal variations are small compared to the forced response. The assessment of skill of climate forecasts and projections is inherently partial because of the small number of repeated trials possible on typical climate time scales but is nonetheless the only direct measure of their performance

Effect of manipulation of primary tumour vascularity on metastasis in an adenocarcinoma model

One explanation for the clinical association between tumour vascularity and probability of metastasis is that increased primary tumour vascularity enhances haematogenous dissemination by offering greater opportunity for tumour cell invasion into the circulation (intravasation). We devised an experimental tumour metastasis model that allowed manipulation of primary tumour vascularity with differential exposure of the primary and metastatic tumour site to angiogenic agents. We used this model to assess the effects of local and systemic increases in the level of the angiogenic agent basic fibroblast growth factor on metastasis. BDIX rats with implanted hind limb K12/TR adenocarcinoma tumours received either intratumoural or systemic, basic fibroblast growth factor or saline infusion. Both intratumoural and systemic basic fibroblast growth factor infusion resulted in significant increases in tumour vascularity, blood flow and growth, but not lung metastasis, compared with saline-infused controls. Raised basic fibroblast growth factor levels and increase in primary tumour vascularity did not increase metastasis. The clinical association between tumour vascularity and metastasis is most likely to arise from a metastatic tumour genotype that links increased tumour vascularity with greater metastatic potential

Why are tumour blood vessels abnormal and why is it important to know?

Tumour blood vessels differ from their normal counterparts for reasons that have received little attention. We report here that they are of at least six distinct types, we describe how each forms, and, looking forward, encourage the targeting of tumour vessel subsets that have lost their vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A) dependency and so are likely unresponsive to anti-VEGF-A therapies

Long-range corrected DFT calculations of charge-transfer integrals in model metal-free phthalocyanine complexes

An assessment of several widely used exchange--correlation potentials in computing charge-transfer integrals is performed. In particular, we employ the recently proposed Coulomb-attenuated model which was proven by other authors to improve upon conventional functionals in the case of charge-transfer excitations. For further validation, two distinct approaches to compute the property in question are compared for a phthalocyanine dimer

Biodiversity impacts of the 2019-2020 Australian megafires.

With large wildfires becoming more frequent1,2, we must rapidly learn how megafires impact biodiversity to prioritize mitigation and improve policy. A key challenge is to discover how interactions among fire-regime components, drought and land tenure shape wildfire impacts. The globally unprecedented3,4 2019-2020 Australian megafires burnt more than 10 million hectares5, prompting major investment in biodiversity monitoring. Collated data include responses of more than 2,000 taxa, providing an unparalleled opportunity to quantify how megafires affect biodiversity. We reveal that the largest effects on plants and animals were in areas with frequent or recent past fires and within extensively burnt areas. Areas burnt at high severity, outside protected areas or under extreme drought also had larger effects. The effects included declines and increases after fire, with the largest responses in rainforests and by mammals. Our results implicate species interactions, dispersal and extent of in situ survival as mechanisms underlying fire responses. Building wildfire resilience into these ecosystems depends on reducing fire recurrence, including with rapid wildfire suppression in areas frequently burnt. Defending wet ecosystems, expanding protected areas and considering localized drought could also contribute. While these countermeasures can help mitigate the impacts of more frequent megafires, reversing anthropogenic climate change remains the urgent broad-scale solution

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified