Climate change adaptation in European river basins

This paper contains an assessment and standardized comparative analysis of the current water management regimes in four case-studies in three European river basins: the Hungarian part of the Upper Tisza, the Ukrainian part of the Upper Tisza (also called Zacarpathian Tisza), Alentejo Region (including the Alqueva Reservoir) in the Lower Guadiana in Portugal, and Rivierenland in the Netherlands. The analysis comprises several regime elements considered to be important in adaptive and integrated water management: agency, awareness raising and education, type of governance and cooperation structures, information management and—exchange, policy development and—implementation, risk management, and finances and cost recovery. This comparative analysis has an explorative character intended to identify general patterns in adaptive and integrated water management and to determine its role in coping with the impacts of climate change on floods and droughts. The results show that there is a strong interdependence of the elements within a water management regime, and as such this interdependence is a stabilizing factor in current management regimes. For example, this research provides evidence that a lack of joint/participative knowledge is an important obstacle for cooperation, or vice versa. We argue that there is a two-way relationship between information management and collaboration. Moreover, this research suggests that bottom-up governance is not a straightforward solution to water management problems in large-scale, complex, multiple-use systems, such as river basins. Instead, all the regimes being analyzed are in a process of finding a balance between bottom-up and top–down governance. Finally, this research shows that in a basin where one type of extreme is dominant—like droughts in the Alentejo (Portugal) and floods in Rivierenland (Netherlands)—the potential impacts of other extremes are somehow ignored or not perceived with the urgency they might deserv

SmartEx: a case study on user profiling and adaptation in exhibition booths

An investigation into user profiling and adaptation with exhibition booth as a case study is reported. First a review of the field of exhibitions and trade fairs and a summary introduction to adaptation and profiling are given. We then introduce three criteria for the evaluation of exhibition booth: effectiveness, efficiency and affect. Effectiveness is related the amount of information collected, efficiency is a measurement of the time taken to collect the information, and affect is the perception of the experience and the mood booth visitors have during and after their visit. We have selected these criteria to assess adaptive and profiled exhibition booths, we call smart exhibition (SmartEx). The assessment is performed with an experiment with three test conditions (non-profiled/non adaptive, profiled/non-adaptive and profiled adaptive presentations). Results of the experiment are presented along discussion. While there is significant improvements of effectiveness and efficiency between the two-first test conditions, the improvement is not significant for the last test condition, for reasons explained. As for the affect, the results show that it has an under-estimated importance in people minds and that it should be addressed more carefully

Incorporating statistical uncertainty in the use of physician cost profiles

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physician cost profiles (also called efficiency or economic profiles) compare the costs of care provided by a physician to his or her peers. These profiles are increasingly being used as the basis for policy applications such as tiered physician networks. Tiers (low, average, high cost) are currently defined by health plans based on percentile cut-offs which do not account for statistical uncertainty. In this paper we compare the percentile cut-off method to another method, using statistical testing, for identifying high-cost or low-cost physicians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We created a claims dataset of 2004-2005 data from four Massachusetts health plans. We employed commercial software to create episodes of care and assigned responsibility for each episode to the physician with the highest proportion of professional costs. A physicians' cost profile was the ratio of the sum of observed costs divided by the sum of expected costs across all assigned episodes. We discuss a new method of measuring standard errors of physician cost profiles which can be used in statistical testing. We then assigned each physician to one of three cost categories (low, average, or high cost) using two methods, percentile cut-offs and a t-test (p-value ≤ 0.05), and assessed the level of disagreement between the two methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Across the 8689 physicians in our sample, 29.5% of physicians were assigned a different cost category when comparing the percentile cut-off method and the t-test. This level of disagreement varied across specialties (17.4% gastroenterology to 45.8% vascular surgery).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Health plans and other payers should incorporate statistical uncertainty when they use physician cost-profiles to categorize physicians into low or high-cost tiers.</p

Rapid Effects of Marine Reserves via Larval Dispersal

Marine reserves have been advocated worldwide as conservation and fishery management tools. It is argued that they can protect ecosystems and also benefit fisheries via density-dependent spillover of adults and enhanced larval dispersal into fishing areas. However, while evidence has shown that marine reserves can meet conservation targets, their effects on fisheries are less understood. In particular, the basic question of if and over what temporal and spatial scales reserves can benefit fished populations via larval dispersal remains unanswered. We tested predictions of a larval transport model for a marine reserve network in the Gulf of California, Mexico, via field oceanography and repeated density counts of recently settled juvenile commercial mollusks before and after reserve establishment. We show that local retention of larvae within a reserve network can take place with enhanced, but spatially-explicit, recruitment to local fisheries. Enhancement occurred rapidly (2 yrs), with up to a three-fold increase in density of juveniles found in fished areas at the downstream edge of the reserve network, but other fishing areas within the network were unaffected. These findings were consistent with our model predictions. Our findings underscore the potential benefits of protecting larval sources and show that enhancement in recruitment can be manifested rapidly. However, benefits can be markedly variable within a local seascape. Hence, effects of marine reserve networks, positive or negative, may be overlooked when only focusing on overall responses and not considering finer spatially-explicit responses within a reserve network and its adjacent fishing grounds. Our results therefore call for future research on marine reserves that addresses this variability in order to help frame appropriate scenarios for the spatial management scales of interest

Torosaurus Is Not Triceratops: Ontogeny in Chasmosaurine Ceratopsids as a Case Study in Dinosaur Taxonomy

Background: In horned dinosaurs, taxonomy is complicated by the fact that the cranial ornament that distinguishes species changes with age. Based on this observation, it has been proposed that the genera Triceratops and Torosaurus are in fact synonymous, with specimens identified as Torosaurus representing the adult form of Triceratops. The hypothesis of synonymy makes three testable predictions: 1) the species in question should have similar geographic and stratigraphic distributions, 2) specimens assigned to Torosaurus should be more mature than those assigned to Triceratops, and 3) intermediates should exist that combine features of Triceratops and Torosaurus. The first condition appears to be met, but it remains unclear whether the other predictions are borne out by the fossil evidence. Methodology/Principal Findings: We assessed the relative maturity of Torosaurus and Triceratops specimens by coding skulls for characters that vary with maturity, and then using a clustering analysis to arrange them into a growth series. We found that a well-defined sequence of changes exists in horned dinosaurs: development of cranial ornament occurs in juveniles, followed by fusion of the skull roof in subadults, and finally, the epoccipitals, epijugals, and rostral fuse to the skull in adults. Using this scheme, we identified mature and immature individuals of both Torosaurus and Triceratops. Furthermore, we describe the ventral depressions on the frill of Triceratops, and show that they differ in shape and position from the parietal fenestrae of Torosaurus. Thus, we conclude that these structures are not intermediates between the soli

Influence of obesity-related risk factors in the aetiology of glioma

BACKGROUND: Obesity and related factors have been implicated as possible aetiological factors for the development of glioma in epidemiological observation studies. We used genetic markers in a Mendelian randomisation framework to examine whether obesity-related traits influence glioma risk. This methodology reduces bias from confounding and is not affected by reverse causation. METHODS: Genetic instruments were identified for 10 key obesity-related risk factors, and their association with glioma risk was evaluated using data from a genome-wide association study of 12,488 glioma patients and 18,169 controls. The estimated odds ratio of glioma associated with each of the genetically defined obesity-related traits was used to infer evidence for a causal relationship. RESULTS: No convincing association with glioma risk was seen for genetic instruments for body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, lipids, type-2 diabetes, hyperglycaemia or insulin resistance. Similarly, we found no evidence to support a relationship between obesity-related traits with subtypes of glioma-glioblastoma (GBM) or non-GBM tumours. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides no evidence to implicate obesity-related factors as causes of glioma

Second surgery for progressive glioblastoma: a multi‐centre questionnaire and cohort‐based review of clinical decision‐making and patient outcomes in current practice

PURPOSE: Glioblastoma prognosis is poor. Treatment options are limited at progression. Surgery may benefit, but no quality guidelines exist to inform patient selection. We sought to describe variations in surgical management at progression, highlight where further evidence is needed, and build towards a consensus strategy. METHODS: Current practice in selection of patients with progressive GBM for second surgery was surveyed online amongst specialists in the UK and Europe. We complemented this with an assessment of practice in a retrospective cohort study from six United Kingdom neurosurgical units. We used descriptive statistics to analyse the data. RESULTS: 234 questionnaire responses were received. Maintaining or improving patient quality of life was key to decision making, with variation as to whether patient age, performance status or intended extent of resection was relevant. MGMT methylation status was not important. Half considered no minimum time after first surgery. 288 patients were reported in the cohort analysis. Median time to second surgery from first surgery 390 days. Median overall survival 815 days, with no association between time to second surgery and time to death (p = 0.874). CONCLUSIONS: This is the most wide-ranging examination of contemporaneous practice in management of GBM progression. Without evidence-based guidelines, the variation is unsurprising. We propose consensus guidelines for consideration, to reduce heterogeneity in decision making, support data collection and analysis of factors influencing outcomes, and to inform clinical trials to establish whether second surgery improves patient outcomes, or simply selects to patients already performing well

‘Nedoceratops’: An Example of a Transitional Morphology

Background: The holotype and only specimen of the chasmosaurine ceratopsid dinosaur ‘Nedoceratops hatcheri ’ has been the source of considerable taxonomic debate since its initial description. At times it has been referred to its own genus while at others it has been considered synonymous with the contemporaneous chasmosaurine Triceratops. Most recently, the debate has focused on whether the specimen represents an intermediate ontogenetic stage between typical young adult Triceratops and the proposed mature morphology, which was previously considered to represent a distinct genus, ‘Torosaurus’. Methodology/Principal Findings: The only specimen of ‘Nedoceratops hatcheri ’ was examined and the proposed diagnostic features of this taxon were compared with other chasmosaurine ceratopsids. Every suggested autapomorphy of ‘Nedoceratops ’ is found in specimens of Triceratops. In this study, Triceratops includes the adult ‘Torosaurus ’ morphology. The small parietal fenestra and elongate squamosals of Nedoceratops are consistent with a transition from a short, solid parietalsquamosal frill to an expanded, fenestrated condition. Objections to this hypothesis regarding the number of epiossifications of the frill and alternations of bone surface texture were explored through a combination of comparative osteology and osteohistology. The synonymy of the three taxa was further supported by these investigations. Conclusions/Significance: The Triceratops, ‘Torosaurus’, and ‘Nedoceratops ’ morphologies represent ontogenetic variatio

Satisfaction with Creativity: A Study of Organizational Characteristics and Individual Motivation

In answering the question of what influences satisfaction with creativity in the workplace, this work takes into account the extent to which the organization supports human aspiration to act creatively. The work throughout reflects a pragmatist approach to creativity and fulfillment, bridging it with needs theory in psychology. The empirical model uses survey data encompassing over 4,000 workers in Italian social enterprises. Results show that satisfaction with creativity is supported, at organizational level, by teamwork, autonomy, domain-relevant competences, as well as by inclusive, fair processes and relationships. At the individual level, satisfaction with creativity is enhanced by the strength of intrinsic initial motivations. The analysis of interaction terms shows that teamwork and workers' initial motivations are complementary in enhancing satisfaction with creativity, while a high degree of domain-relevant competences appears to substitute advice and supervision by superiors in accomplishing the desired level of creative action

Modelling to bridge many boundaries: the Colorado and Murray-Darling River basins

Increasing pressure on shared water resources has often been a driver for the development and utilisation of water resource models (WRMs) to inform planning and management decisions. With an increasing emphasis on regional decision-making among competing actors as opposed to top-down and authoritative directives, the need for integrated knowledge and water diplomacy efforts across federal and international rivers provides a test bed for the ability of WRMs to operate within complex historical, social, environmental, institutional and political contexts. This paper draws on theories of sustainability science to examine the role of WRMs to inform transboundary water resource governance in large river basins. We survey designers and users of WRMs in the Colorado River Basin in North America and the Murray-Darling Basin in southeastern Australia. Water governance in such federal rivers challenges inter-governmental and multi-level coordination and we explore these dynamics through the application of WRMs. The development pathways of WRMs are found to influence their uptake and acceptance as decision support tools. Furthermore, we find evidence that WRMs are used as boundary objects and perform the functions of ‘boundary work’ between scientists, decision-makers and stakeholders in the midst of regional environmental changes