Climate projections and their impact on policy and practice

This article examines the relationship between projections of climate change and the responses to those projections. First, it discusses uncertainty and its role in shaping not only the production of climate projections but also the use of these projections by decision makers. We find that uncertainty critically affects the way climate projections move from useful to usable, where usefulness is defined by scientists' perception of users' needs, and usability is defined by users' perception of what knowledge can be readily applied to their decision. From the point of view of the natural scientist, we pose that there is an uncertainty fallacy, that is, a belief that the systematic reduction of uncertainty in climate projections is required in order for the projections to be used by decision makers. Second, we explore the implications of climate projections for policy and decision making, using examples from the seasonal climate forecast applications literature as an analog. We examine constraints and opportunities for their application in policy and practice and find that over-reliance on science and technical solutions might crowd out the moral imperative to do what is needed to improve livelihoods and to guarantee ecosystems' long-term sustainability. We conclude that, in the context of high uncertainty, decision makers should not look for ‘perfect’ forecasts, but seek to implement knowledge systems that integrate climate projections with other kinds of knowledge and that consider the multiple stressors that shape their decision environment. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs websitePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78059/1/71_ftp.pd

North American carbon dioxide sources and sinks: magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty

North America is both a source and sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Continental sources - such as fossil-fuel combustion in the US and deforestation in Mexico - and sinks - including most ecosystems, and particularly secondary forests - add and remove CO2 from the atmosphere, respectively. Photosynthesis converts CO2 into carbon as biomass, which is stored in vegetation, soils, and wood products. However, ecosystem sinks compensate for only similar to 35% of the continent's fossil-fuel-based CO2 emissions; North America therefore represents a net CO2 source. Estimating the magnitude of ecosystem sinks, even though the calculation is confounded by uncertainty as a result of individual inventory- and model-based alternatives, has improved through the use of a combined approach. Front Ecol Environ 2012; 10(10): 512-519, doi:10.1890/12006

Climate Change Alters Seedling Emergence and Establishment in an Old-Field Ecosystem

Background: Ecological succession drives large-scale changes in ecosystem composition over time, but the mechanisms whereby climatic change might alter succession remain unresolved. Here, we asked if the effects of atmospheric and climatic change would alter tree seedling emergence and establishment in an old-field ecosystem, recognizing that small shifts in rates of seedling emergence and establishment of different species may have long-term repercussions on the transition of fields to forests in the future. Methodology/Principal Findings: We introduced seeds from three early successional tree species into constructed old-field plant communities that had been subjected for 4 years to altered temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO 2 regimes in an experimental facility. Our experiment revealed that different combinations of atmospheric CO2 concentration, air temperature, and soil moisture altered seedling emergence and establishment. Treatments directly and indirectly affected soil moisture, which was the best predictor of seedling establishment, though treatment effects differed among species. Conclusions: The observed impacts, coupled with variations in the timing of seed arrival, are demonstrated as predictors o

Coastal lagoons and rising sea level: a review

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a particularly ominous threat to human habitations and infrastructure in the coastal zone because 10% of the world's population lives in low-lying coastal regions within 10 m elevation of present sea level. There has been much discussion about projected (and the sources of projection) vs. measured SLR rates. Which rates should coastal scientists and managers apply in their studies, and what is the degree of confi- dence of such forecasts, are still open questions. This paper reviews the patterns and effects of relative SLR (RSLR) in coastal lagoons. Three main components are presented in the review: (a) a summary of the main approaches used in predicting medium- to long-term trends in RSLR, (b) a summary of the main evolutionary trends of coastal lagoons and the tools used to examine such trends, and (c) an identification of future research needs. The review reveals that the major source of uncertainty is how and when RSLR will manifest itself at different spatio-temporal scales in coastal lagoon systems, and how its effects can be mitigated. Most of the studies reviewed herein articulate a natural ‘defence’ mechanism of barriers in coastal lagoons by landward barrier retreat through continuous migration, and a gradual change in basin hypsometry during the retreat process. So far, only a relatively small number of detailed studies have integrated and quantified human impacts and coastal lagoon evolution induced by RSLR. We conclude that much more research about adaptation measures is needed, taking into consideration not only the physical and ecological systems but also social, cultural, and economic impacts. Future challenges include a downscaling of SLR approaches from the global level to regional and local levels, with a detailed application of coastal evolution prediction to individual coastal lagoon systemsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The United States National Report on Systematic Observations for Climate for 2008: National Activities with Respect to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Implementation Plan

Long-term, high-accuracy, stable environmental observations are essential to define the state of the global integrated Earth system, its history and its future variability and change. Observations for climate include: (1) operational weather observations, when appropriate care has been exercised to establish high accuracy; (2) limited-duration observations collected as part of research investigations to elucidate chemical, dynamical, biological, or radiative processes that contribute to maintaining climate patterns or to their variability; (3) high accuracy, high precision observations to document decadal-to-centennial changes; and (4) observations of climate proxies, collected to extend the instrumental climate record to remote regions and back in time to provide information on climate change at millennial and longer time scales. This report was requested by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in order to serve as input to see how progress has been made with respect to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Implementation Plan developed in 2004 In accordance with the UNFCCC guidelines, the sections of the report delineate specific U.S. climate monitoring activities in several distinct yet integrated areas as follows: (1) common issues; (2) non-satellite atmospheric observations; (3) non-satellite oceanic observations; (4) non-satellite terrestrial observations; (5) satellite global atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial observations; and (6) data and information management related to systematic observations. The various federal agencies involved in observing the environment provide the required long-term observations. Space-based systems provide unique global measurements of solar output, the Earth's radiation budget; vegetation type and primary production; land surface conditions; ocean and terrestrial biomass primary productivity; tropospheric and stratospheric ozone; tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor; tropospheric aerosols; greenhouse gas distributions; sea level; ocean surface conditions and winds; weather; and tropical precipitation, among others