Adaptive approximate Bayesian computation for complex models

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a family of computational techniques in Bayesian statistics. These techniques allow to fi t a model to data without relying on the computation of the model likelihood. They instead require to simulate a large number of times the model to be fi tted. A number of re finements to the original rejection-based ABC scheme have been proposed, including the sequential improvement of posterior distributions. This technique allows to de- crease the number of model simulations required, but it still presents several shortcomings which are particu- larly problematic for costly to simulate complex models. We here provide a new algorithm to perform adaptive approximate Bayesian computation, which is shown to perform better on both a toy example and a complex social model.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

Incident venous thromboembolic events in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER)

<p>Background: Venous thromboembolic events (VTE), including deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, are common in older age. It has been suggested that statins might reduce the risk of VTE however positive results from studies of middle aged subjects may not be generalisable to elderly people. We aimed to determine the effect of pravastatin on incident VTE in older people; we also studied the impact of clinical and plasma risk variables.</p> <p>Methods: This study was an analysis of incident VTE using data from the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER), a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of pravastatin in men and women aged 70-82. Mean follow-up was 3.2 years. Risk for VTE was examined in non-warfarin treated pravastatin (n = 2834) and placebo (n = 2865) patients using a Cox's proportional hazard model, and the impact of other risk factors assessed in a multivariate forward stepwise regression analysis. Baseline clinical characteristics, blood biochemistry and hematology variables, plasma levels of lipids and lipoproteins, and plasma markers of inflammation and adiposity were compared. Plasma markers of thrombosis and hemostasis were assessed in a nested case (n = 48) control (n = 93) study where the cohort was those participants, not on warfarin, for whom data were available.</p> <p>Results: There were 28 definite cases (1.0%) of incident VTE in the pravastatin group recipients and 20 cases (0.70%) in placebo recipients. Pravastatin did not reduce VTE in PROSPER compared to placebo [unadjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.42 (0.80, 2.52) p = 0.23]. Higher body mass index (BMI) [1.09 (1.02, 1.15) p = 0.0075], country [Scotland vs Netherlands 4.26 (1.00, 18.21) p = 0.050 and Ireland vs Netherlands 6.16 (1.46, 26.00) p = 0.013], lower systolic blood pressure [1.35 (1.03, 1.75) p = 0.027] and lower baseline Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score [1.19 (1.01, 1.41) p = 0.034] were associated with an increased risk of VTE, however only BMI, country and systolic blood pressure remained significant on multivariate analysis. In a nested case control study of definite VTE, plasma Factor VIII levels were associated with VTE [1.52 (1.01, 2.28), p = 0.044]. However no other measure of thrombosis and haemostasis was associated with increased risk of VTE.</p> <p>Conclusions: Pravastatin does not prevent VTE in elderly people at risk of vascular disease. Blood markers of haemostasis and inflammation are not strongly predictive of VTE in older age however BMI, country and lower systolic blood pressure are independently associated with VTE risk.</p&gt

Nitrogen forms affect root structure and water uptake in the hybrid poplar

The study analyses the effects of two different forms of nitrogen fertilisation (nitrate and ammonium) on root structure and water uptake of two hybrid poplar (Populus maximowiczii x P. balsamifera) clones in a field experiment. Water uptake was studied using sap flow gauges on individual proximal roots and coarse root structure was examined by excavating 18 whole-root systems. Finer roots were scanned and analyzed for architecture. Nitrogen forms did not affect coarse-root system development, but had a significant effect on fine-root development. Nitrate-treated trees presented higher fine:coarse root ratios and higher specific root lengths than control or ammonium treated trees. These allocation differences affected the water uptake capacity of the plants as reflected by the higher sapflow rate in the nitrate treatment. The diameter of proximal roots at the tree base predicted well the total root biomass and length. The diameter of smaller lateral roots also predicted the lateral root mass, length, surface area and the number of tips. The effect of nitrogen fertilisation on the fine root structure translated into an effect on the functioning of the fine roots forming a link between form (architecture) and function (water uptake)

Characterization of Geographically Distinct Bacterial Communities Associated with Coral Mucus Produced by Acropora spp. and Porites spp

ABSTRACT Acropora and Porites corals are important reef builders in the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean. Bacteria associated with mucus produced by Porites spp. and Acropora spp. from Caribbean (Punta Maroma, Mexico) and Indo-Pacific (Hoga and Sampela, Indonesia) reefs were determined. Analysis of pyrosequencing libraries showed that bacterial communities from Caribbean corals were significantly more diverse (H′, 3.18 to 4.25) than their Indonesian counterparts (H′, 2.54 to 3.25). Dominant taxa were Gammaproteobacteria , Alphaproteobacteria , Firmicutes , and Cyanobacteria , which varied in relative abundance between coral genera and region. Distinct coral host-specific communities were also found; for example, Clostridiales were dominant on Acropora spp. (at Hoga and the Mexican Caribbean) compared to Porites spp. and seawater. Within the Gammproteobacteria , Halomonas spp. dominated sequence libraries from Porites spp. (49%) and Acropora spp. (5.6%) from the Mexican Caribbean, compared to the corresponding Indonesian coral libraries (&lt;2%). Interestingly, with the exception of Porites spp. from the Mexican Caribbean, there was also a ubiquity of Psychrobacter spp., which dominated Acropora and Porites libraries from Indonesia and Acropora libraries from the Caribbean. In conclusion, there was a dominance of Halomonas spp. (associated with Acropora and Porites [Mexican Caribbean]), Firmicutes (associated with Acropora [Mexican Caribbean] and with Acropora and Porites [Hoga]), and Cyanobacteria (associated with Acropora and Porites [Hoga] and Porites [Sampela]). This is also the first report describing geographically distinct Psychrobacter spp. associated with coral mucus. In addition, the predominance of Clostridiales associated with Acropora spp. provided additional evidence for coral host-specific microorganisms. </jats:p

The rise of consumer health wearables: promises and barriers

Will consumer wearable technology ever be adopted or accepted by the medical community? Patients and practitioners regularly use digital technology (e.g., thermometers and glucose monitors) to identify and discuss symptoms. In addition, a third of general practitioners in the United Kingdom report that patients arrive with suggestions for treatment based on online search results. However, consumer health wearables are predicted to become the next “Dr Google.” One in six (15%) consumers in the United States currently uses wearable technology, including smartwatches or fitness bands. While 19 million fitness devices are likely to be sold this year, that number is predicted to grow to 110 million in 2018. As the line between consumer health wearables and medical devices begins to blur, it is now possible for a single wearable device to monitor a range of medical risk factors. Potentially, these devices could give patients direct access to personal analytics that can contribute to their health, facilitate preventive care, and aid in the management of ongoing illness. However, how this new wearable technology might best serve medicine remains unclea

Genetic Impact of a Severe El Niño Event on Galápagos Marine Iguanas (Amblyrhynchus cristatus)

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of climatic disturbance, impacting the dynamics of ecosystems worldwide. Recent models predict that human-generated rises in green-house gas levels will cause an increase in the strength and frequency of El Niño warming events in the next several decades, highlighting the need to understand the potential biological consequences of increased ENSO activity. Studies have focused on the ecological and demographic implications of El Niño in a range of organisms, but there have been few systematic attempts to measure the impact of these processes on genetic diversity in populations. Here, we evaluate whether the 1997–1998 El Niño altered the genetic composition of Galápagos marine iguana populations from eleven islands, some of which experienced mortality rates of up to 90% as a result of El Niño warming. Specifically, we measured the temporal variation in microsatellite allele frequencies and mitochondrial DNA diversity (mtDNA) in samples collected before (1991/1993) and after (2004) the El Niño event. Based on microsatellite data, only one island (Marchena) showed signatures of a genetic bottleneck, where the harmonic mean of the effective population size (Ne) was estimated to be less than 50 individuals during the period between samplings. Substantial decreases in mtDNA variation between time points were observed in populations from just two islands (Marchena and Genovesa). Our results suggests that, for the majority of islands, a single, intense El Niño event did not reduce marine iguana populations to the point where substantial neutral genetic diversity was lost. In the case of Marchena, simultaneous changes to both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA variation may also be the result of a volcanic eruption on the island in 1991. Therefore, studies that seek to evaluate the genetic impact of El Niño must also consider the confounding or potentially synergistic effect of other environmental and biological forces shaping populations

Targeted Sister Chromatid Cohesion by Sir2

The protein complex known as cohesin binds pericentric regions and other sites of eukaryotic genomes to mediate cohesion of sister chromatids. In budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, cohesin also binds silent chromatin, a repressive chromatin structure that functionally resembles heterochromatin of higher eukaryotes. We developed a protein-targeting assay to investigate the mechanistic basis for cohesion of silent chromatin domains. Individual silencing factors were tethered to sites where pairing of sister chromatids could be evaluated by fluorescence microscopy. We report that the evolutionarily conserved Sir2 histone deacetylase, an essential silent chromatin component, was both necessary and sufficient for cohesion. The cohesin genes were required, but the Sir2 deacetylase activity and other silencing factors were not. Binding of cohesin to silent chromatin was achieved with a small carboxyl terminal fragment of Sir2. Taken together, these data define a unique role for Sir2 in cohesion of silent chromatin that is distinct from the enzyme's role as a histone deacetylase