Distribution and abundance of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) and Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) on Graham, Buckingham, and southern Ellesmere islands, March 2015

We flew a survey of southern Ellesmere Island, Graham Island, and Buckingham Island in March 2015 to obtain estimates of abundance for muskoxen and Peary caribou. Generally, muskoxen were abundant north of the Sydkap Ice Cap along Baumann Fiord, north of Goose Fiord, west and north of Muskox Fiord, and on the coastal plains and river valleys east of Vendom Fiord. Although few, they were also present on Bjorne Peninsula and the south coast between the Sydkap Ice Cap and Jakeman Glacier. We observed a total of 1146 muskoxen. Calves (approximately 10-months old) made up 22% of the observed animals. The population estimate was 3200 ± 602 SE (standard error) muskoxen, the highest muskox population size ever estimated for southern Ellesmere, Graham and Buckingham islands. This could be because previous efforts typically surveyed only a portion of our area or focused elsewhere, or the results were provided only as minimum counts rather than estimates of abundance. Regardless, our results indicate that the muskox population has recovered from low levels in 2005 of 312-670 (95% confidence interval [CI]) individuals. Peary caribou abundance appears to be low.  We only saw 38 Peary caribou during our 2015 survey. This confounds appraisal of possible abundance change since 2005, when 109-442 caribou (95% CI) were estimated to inhabit the same surveyed area. We estimated 183 ± 128 SE Peary caribou, and suggest that their numbers are likely stable at low density on southern Ellesmere Island

A second look at the toric h-polynomial of a cubical complex

We provide an explicit formula for the toric $h$-contribution of each cubical shelling component, and a new combinatorial model to prove Clara Chan's result on the non-negativity of these contributions. Our model allows for a variant of the Gessel-Shapiro result on the $g$-polynomial of the cubical lattice, this variant may be shown by simple inclusion-exclusion. We establish an isomorphism between our model and Chan's model and provide a reinterpretation in terms of noncrossing partitions. By discovering another variant of the Gessel-Shapiro result in the work of Denise and Simion, we find evidence that the toric $h$-polynomials of cubes are related to the Morgan-Voyce polynomials via Viennot's combinatorial theory of orthogonal polynomials.Comment: Minor correction

Disparate MgII Absorption Statistics towards Quasars and Gamma-Ray Bursts : A Possible Explanation

We examine the recent report by Prochter et al. (2006) that gamma-ray burst (GRB) sight lines have a much higher incidence of strong MgII absorption than quasar sight lines. We propose that the discrepancy is due to the different beam sizes of GRBs and quasars, and that the intervening MgII systems are clumpy with the dense part of each cloudlet of a similar size as the quasars, i.e. < 10^16 cm, but bigger than GRBs. We also discuss observational predictions of our proposed model. Most notably, in some cases the intervening MgII absorbers in GRB spectra should be seen varying, and quasars with smaller sizes should show an increased rate of strong MgII absorbers. In fact, our prediction of variable MgII lines in the GRB spectra has been now confirmed by Hao et al. (2007), who observed intervening FeII and MgII lines at z=1.48 to be strongly variable in the multi-epoch spectra of z=4.05 GRB060206.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures; substantially revised model calculation; accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Science as a Lette

Prioritization of HCV treatment in the direct-acting antiviral era: an economic evaluation

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We determined the optimal HCV treatment prioritization strategy for interferon-free (IFN-free) HCV direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) by disease stage and risk status incorporating treatment of people who inject drugs (PWID). METHODS: A dynamic HCV transmission and progression model compared the cost-effectiveness of treating patients early vs. delaying until cirrhosis for patients with mild or moderate fibrosis, where PWID chronic HCV prevalence was 20, 40 or 60%. Treatment duration was 12weeks at £3300/wk, to achieve a 95% sustained viral response and was varied by genotype/stage in alternative scenarios. We estimated long-term health costs (in £UK=€1.3=$1.5) and outcomes as quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained using a £20,000 willingness to pay per QALY threshold. We ranked strategies with net monetary benefit (NMB); negative NMB implies delay treatment. RESULTS: The most cost-effective group to treat were PWID with moderate fibrosis (mean NMB per early treatment £60,640/£23,968 at 20/40% chronic prevalence, respectively), followed by PWID with mild fibrosis (NMB £59,258 and £19,421, respectively) then ex-PWID/non-PWID with moderate fibrosis (NMB £9,404). Treatment of ex-PWID/non-PWID with mild fibrosis could be delayed (NMB -£3,650). In populations with 60% chronic HCV among PWID it was only cost-effective to prioritize DAAs to ex-PWID/non-PWID with moderate fibrosis. For every one PWID in the 20% chronic HCV setting, 2 new HCV infections were averted. One extra HCV-related death was averted per 13 people with moderate disease treated. Rankings were unchanged with reduced drug costs or varied sustained virological response/duration by genotype/fibrosis stage. CONCLUSIONS: Treating PWID with moderate or mild HCV with IFN-free DAAs is cost-effective compared to delay until cirrhosis, except when chronic HCV prevalence and reinfection risk is very high

Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar

A number of analyses, meta-Analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49):15060-15065] argue that it is feasible to provide low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS [wind, water and solar power] across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055 , with only electricity and hydrogen as energy carriers. In this paper, we evaluate that study and find significant shortcomings in the analysis. In particular, we point out that this work used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions. Policy makers should treat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable, and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power

A Natural Explanation of All Solar Neutrino Data by Resonant Spin-Flavor Precession Scenario

It is emphasized that the $E_{\nu}$ (neutrino energy) spectrum of the $\nu_e$ survival probability in the Resonant Spin-Flavor Precession (RSFP) scenario has very desirable shape to reconcile all existing solar neutrino data. As the result, the RSFP scenario is shown to have rather broad allowed region to reconcile the data in the ($B,\ \Delta m^2$) plane, with $B$ being the magnetic field strength inside the Sun. The sensitivity of the allowed region on the different choices of the $B$ profile, and the time variations of the solar neutrino event rates in the RSFP scenario are also discussed in some detail.Comment: Latex, 10 pages + 6 uuencoded postscript figures, KEK-TH-416, KOBE-TH-94-02 (KEK-TH number was corrected from 417 to 416

Global burden, risk factors, and temporal trends of ureteral cancer:a comprehensive analysis of cancer registries

Background: Ureteral cancer is a rare cancer. This study aimed to provide an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis on the global trends of ureteral cancer incidence and its association with lifestyle and metabolic risk factors. Methods: The incidence of ureteral cancer was estimated from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus and Global Cancer Observatory databases. We analyzed the (1) global incidence of ureteral cancer by region, country, sex, and age group by age-standardized rates (ASR); (2) associated risk factors on a population level by univariable linear regression with logarithm transformation; and (3) incidence trend of ureteral cancer by sex and age group in different countries by Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC). Results:The global age-standardized rate of ureteral cancer incidence in 2022 was 22.3 per 10,000,000 people. Regions with higher human development index (HDI), such as Europe, Northern America, and East Asia, were found to have a higher incidence of ureteral cancer. Higher HDI and gross domestic product (GDP) and a higher prevalence of smoking, alcohol drinking, physical inactivity, unhealthy dietary, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and lipid disorder were associated with higher incidence of ureteral cancer. An overall increasing trend of ureteral cancer incidence was observed for the past decade, especially among the female population. Conclusions: Although ureteral cancer was relatively rare, the number of cases reported was rising over the world. The rising trends among females were more evident compared with the other subgroups, especially in European countries. Further studies could be conducted to examine the reasons behind these epidemiological changes and confirm the relationship with the risk factors identified.</p

Fast variability from black-hole binaries

Currently available information on fast variability of the X-ray emission from accreting collapsed objects constitutes a complex phenomenology which is difficult to interpret. We review the current observational standpoint for black-hole binaries and survey models that have been proposed to interpret it. Despite the complex structure of the accretion flow, key observational diagnostics have been identified which can provide direct access to the dynamics of matter motions in the close vicinity of black holes and thus to the some of fundamental properties of curved spacetimes, where strong-field general relativistic effects can be observed.Comment: 20 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews. Also to appear in hard cover in the Space Sciences Series of ISSI "The Physics of Accretion onto Black Holes" (Springer Publisher

Cosmological distance indicators

We review three distance measurement techniques beyond the local universe: (1) gravitational lens time delays, (2) baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), and (3) HI intensity mapping. We describe the principles and theory behind each method, the ingredients needed for measuring such distances, the current observational results, and future prospects. Time delays from strongly lensed quasars currently provide constraints on $H_0$ with < 4% uncertainty, and with 1% within reach from ongoing surveys and efforts. Recent exciting discoveries of strongly lensed supernovae hold great promise for time-delay cosmography. BAO features have been detected in redshift surveys up to z <~ 0.8 with galaxies and z ~ 2 with Ly-$\alpha$ forest, providing precise distance measurements and $H_0$ with < 2% uncertainty in flat $\Lambda$CDM. Future BAO surveys will probe the distance scale with percent-level precision. HI intensity mapping has great potential to map BAO distances at z ~ 0.8 and beyond with precisions of a few percent. The next years ahead will be exciting as various cosmological probes reach 1% uncertainty in determining $H_0$, to assess the current tension in $H_0$ measurements that could indicate new physics.Comment: Review article accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews (Springer), 45 pages, 10 figures. Chapter of a special collection resulting from the May 2016 ISSI-BJ workshop on Astronomical Distance Determination in the Space Ag

Inferring Loop Invariants using Postconditions

One of the obstacles in automatic program proving is to obtain suitable loop invariants. The invariant of a loop is a weakened form of its postcondition (the loop's goal, also known as its contract); the present work takes advantage of this observation by using the postcondition as the basis for invariant inference, using various heuristics such as "uncoupling" which prove useful in many important algorithms. Thanks to these heuristics, the technique is able to infer invariants for a large variety of loop examples. We present the theory behind the technique, its implementation (freely available for download and currently relying on Microsoft Research's Boogie tool), and the results obtained.Comment: Slightly revised versio