Can surface flux transport account for the weak polar field in cycle 23?

To reproduce the weak magnetic field on the polar caps of the Sun observed during the declining phase of cycle 23 poses a challenge to surface flux transport models since this cycle has not been particularly weak. We use a well-calibrated model to evaluate the parameter changes required to obtain simulated polar fields and open flux that are consistent with the observations. We find that the low polar field of cycle 23 could be reproduced by an increase of the meridional flow by 55% in the last cycle. Alternatively, a decrease of the mean tilt angle of sunspot groups by 28% would also lead to a similarly low polar field, but cause a delay of the polar field reversals by 1.5 years in comparison to the observations.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, Space Science Reviews, accepte

Solar Magnetic Carpet I: Simulation of Synthetic Magnetograms

This paper describes a new 2D model for the photospheric evolution of the magnetic carpet. It is the first in a series of papers working towards constructing a realistic 3D non-potential model for the interaction of small-scale solar magnetic fields. In the model, the basic evolution of the magnetic elements is governed by a supergranular flow profile. In addition, magnetic elements may evolve through the processes of emergence, cancellation, coalescence and fragmentation. Model parameters for the emergence of bipoles are based upon the results of observational studies. Using this model, several simulations are considered, where the range of flux with which bipoles may emerge is varied. In all cases the model quickly reaches a steady state where the rates of emergence and cancellation balance. Analysis of the resulting magnetic field shows that we reproduce observed quantities such as the flux distribution, mean field, cancellation rates, photospheric recycle time and a magnetic network. As expected, the simulation matches observations more closely when a larger, and consequently more realistic, range of emerging flux values is allowed (4e16 - 1e19 Mx). The model best reproduces the current observed properties of the magnetic carpet when we take the minimum absolute flux for emerging bipoles to be 4e16 Mx. In future, this 2D model will be used as an evolving photospheric boundary condition for 3D non-potential modeling.Comment: 33 pages, 16 figures, 5 gif movies included: movies may be viewed at http://www-solar.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/~karen/movies_paper1

Foreground removal from CMB temperature maps using an MLP neural network

One of the main obstacles in extracting the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) signal from observations in the mm-submm range is the foreground contamination by emission from galactic components: mainly synchrotron, free-free and thermal dust emission. Due to the statistical nature of the intrinsic CMB signal it is essential to minimize the systematic errors in the CMB temperature determinations. Following the available knowledge of the spectral behavior of the galactic foregrounds simple, power law-like spectra have been assumed. The feasibility of using a simple neural network for extracting the CMB temperature signal from the combined CMB and foreground signals has been investigated. As a specific example, we have analysed simulated data, like that expected from the ESA Planck Surveyor mission. A simple multilayer perceptron neural network with 2 hidden layers can provide temperature estimates, over more than 80 percent of the sky, that are to a high degree uncorrelated with the foreground signals. A single network will be able to cover the dynamic range of the Planck noise level over the entire sky.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

Triggering an eruptive flare by emerging flux in a solar active-region complex

A flare and fast coronal mass ejection originated between solar active regions NOAA 11514 and 11515 on July 1, 2012 in response to flux emergence in front of the leading sunspot of the trailing region 11515. Analyzing the evolution of the photospheric magnetic flux and the coronal structure, we find that the flux emergence triggered the eruption by interaction with overlying flux in a non-standard way. The new flux neither had the opposite orientation nor a location near the polarity inversion line, which are favorable for strong reconnection with the arcade flux under which it emerged. Moreover, its flux content remained significantly smaller than that of the arcade (approximately 40 %). However, a loop system rooted in the trailing active region ran in part under the arcade between the active regions, passing over the site of flux emergence. The reconnection with the emerging flux, leading to a series of jet emissions into the loop system, caused a strong but confined rise of the loop system. This lifted the arcade between the two active regions, weakening its downward tension force and thus destabilizing the considerably sheared flux under the arcade. The complex event was also associated with supporting precursor activity in an enhanced network near the active regions, acting on the large-scale overlying flux, and with two simultaneous confined flares within the active regions.Comment: Accepted for publication in Topical Issue of Solar Physics: Solar and Stellar Flares. 25 pages, 12 figure

Physics of Solar Prominences: II - Magnetic Structure and Dynamics

Observations and models of solar prominences are reviewed. We focus on non-eruptive prominences, and describe recent progress in four areas of prominence research: (1) magnetic structure deduced from observations and models, (2) the dynamics of prominence plasmas (formation and flows), (3) Magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) waves in prominences and (4) the formation and large-scale patterns of the filament channels in which prominences are located. Finally, several outstanding issues in prominence research are discussed, along with observations and models required to resolve them.Comment: 75 pages, 31 pictures, review pape

Coronal Magnetic Field Evolution from 1996 to 2012: Continuous Non-potential Simulations

Coupled flux transport and magneto-frictional simulations are extended to simulate the continuous magnetic-field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from the start of Solar Cycle 23 in 1996. By simplifying the dynamics, our model follows the build-up and transport of electric currents and free magnetic energy in the corona, offering an insight into the magnetic structure and topology that extrapolation-based models cannot. To enable these extended simulations, we have implemented a more efficient numerical grid, and have carefully calibrated the surface flux-transport model to reproduce the observed large-scale photospheric radial magnetic field, using emerging active regions determined from observed line-of-sight magnetograms. This calibration is described in some detail. In agreement with previous authors, we find that the standard flux-transport model is insufficient to simultaneously reproduce the observed polar fields and butterfly diagram during Cycle 23, and that additional effects must be added. For the best-fit model, we use automated techniques to detect the latitude–time profile of flux ropes and their ejections over the full solar cycle. Overall, flux ropes are more prevalent outside of active latitudes but those at active latitudes are more frequently ejected. Future possibilities for space-weather prediction with this approach are briefly assessed

PMS97 - A Multi-Centre Retrospective Study To Describe The Impact on Healthcare Resource Use And Real World Effectiveness of Golimumab In Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) In UK Clinical Practice

Objectives Study aims were to describe the impact of Tumour Necrosis Factor-α (TNF-α) inhibitor golimumab on UK real-world healthcare resource use (HRU) and evaluate the clinical effectiveness of golimumab in the treatment of Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS). This abstract presents HRU data for the 6 months pre- and post-golimumab initiation as well as effectiveness data at 6 months post-golimumab initiation compared with the closest observation pre-golimumab initiation. Methods This multicentre observational study of consenting adult patients was carried out via retrospective medical chart review in six UK NHS hospital rheumatology departments between November 2015 and October 2016. Inclusion criteria included AS diagnosis, anti-TNF-α-naïve, received minimum three doses of golimumab for AS, and first dose at least 12 months before data collection. Effectiveness was measured using the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI), Spinal Pain Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI). Patients with missing data are excluded from the effectiveness analysis. Results The study enrolled 47 eligible patients, 74% male, mean age of 46.4 years, mean golimumab treatment duration of 2.3 years. A significant reduction of 30.4% (Mann-Whitney p<0.005) in mean number of rheumatology clinic visits (from 2.3 to 1.6) and a 27.3% reduction in mean number of clinical investigations (from 13.4 to 9.7) over the 12-month period was observed (Mann-Whitney p<0.05). 74% (32/43) of patients achieved a clinically meaningful change (BASDAI score reduced by 2 or more), and overall mean BASDAI score reduced by 3.9 points [n=43] (Mann-Whitney p<0.001). 75% (18/24) of patients achieved a reduction in spinal pain VAS by 2cm or more indicating a treatment response. Overall mean BASFI score improved by 4.1 points [n=26] (Mann-Whitney p<0.001). Conclusions Golimumab was associated with statistically significant reductions in HRU and clinically meaningful improvements in UK patients with AS during the first 6 months of treatment

Flux-rope twist in eruptive flares and CMEs : due to zipper and main-phase reconnection

Funding: UK Science and Technology Facilities CouncilThe nature of three-dimensional reconnection when a twisted flux tube erupts during an eruptive flare or coronal mass ejection is considered. The reconnection has two phases: first of all, 3D “zipper reconnection” propagates along the initial coronal arcade, parallel to the polarity inversion line (PIL); then subsequent quasi-2D “main phase reconnection” in the low corona around a flux rope during its eruption produces coronal loops and chromospheric ribbons that propagate away from the PIL in a direction normal to it. One scenario starts with a sheared arcade: the zipper reconnection creates a twisted flux rope of roughly one turn (2π radians of twist), and then main phase reconnection builds up the bulk of the erupting flux rope with a relatively uniform twist of a few turns. A second scenario starts with a pre-existing flux rope under the arcade. Here the zipper phase can create a core with many turns that depend on the ratio of the magnetic fluxes in the newly formed flare ribbons and the new flux rope. Main phase reconnection then adds a layer of roughly uniform twist to the twisted central core. Both phases and scenarios are modeled in a simple way that assumes the initial magnetic flux is fragmented along the PIL. The model uses conservation of magnetic helicity and flux, together with equipartition of magnetic helicity, to deduce the twist of the erupting flux rope in terms the geometry of the initial configuration. Interplanetary observations show some flux ropes have a fairly uniform twist, which could be produced when the zipper phase and any pre-existing flux rope possess small or moderate twist (up to one or two turns). Other interplanetary flux ropes have highly twisted cores (up to five turns), which could be produced when there is a pre-existing flux rope and an active zipper phase that creates substantial extra twist.PostprintPublisher PDFPeer reviewe

The Origin, Early Evolution and Predictability of Solar Eruptions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt