Why We Can No Longer Ignore Consecutive Disasters

In recent decades, a striking number of countries have suffered from consecutive disasters: events whose impacts overlap both spatially and temporally, while recovery is still under way. The risk of consecutive disasters will increase due to growing exposure, the interconnectedness of human society, and the increased frequency and intensity of nontectonic hazard. This paper provides an overview of the different types of consecutive disasters, their causes, and impacts. The impacts can be distinctly different from disasters occurring in isolation (both spatially and temporally) from other disasters, noting that full isolation never occurs. We use existing empirical disaster databases to show the global probabilistic occurrence for selected hazard types. Current state‐of‐the art risk assessment models and their outputs do not allow for a thorough representation and analysis of consecutive disasters. This is mainly due to the many challenges that are introduced by addressing and combining hazards of different nature, and accounting for their interactions and dynamics. Disaster risk management needs to be more holistic and codesigned between researchers, policy makers, first responders, and companies

The Asynergies of Structural Disaster Risk Reduction Measures: Comparing Floods and Earthquakes

Traditionally, building‐level disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures are aimed at a single natural hazard. However, in many countries the society faces the threat of multiple hazards. Building‐level DRR measures that aim to decrease earthquake vulnerability can have opposing or conflicting effects on flood vulnerability, and vice versa. In a case study of Afghanistan, we calculate the risk of floods and earthquakes, in terms of average annual losses (AAL), in the current situation. Next, we develop two DRR scenarios, where building‐level measures to reduce flood and earthquake risk are implemented. We use this to identify districts for which DRR measures of one hazard increase the risk of another hazard. We then also calculate the optimal situation between the two scenarios by, for each district, selecting the DRR scenario for which the AAL as a ratio of the total exposure is lowest. Finally, we assess the sensitivity of the total risk to each scenario. The optimal measure differs spatially throughout Afghanistan, but in most districts it is more beneficial to take flood DRR measures. However, in the districts where it is more beneficial to take earthquake measures, the reduction in risk is considerable (up to 40%, while flood DRR measures lead to a reduction in risk by 16% in individual districts). The introduction of asynergies between DRR measures in risk analyses allows policy‐makers to spatially differentiate building codes and other building‐level DRR measures to address the most prevalent risk while not compromising the risk resulting from other hazards

De eerste gehechtheidsrelatie(s) en de cognitieve ontwikkeling van het kind: een literatuuroverzicht

FSW - Gezinsopvoeding - Ou

An adaptive, real-time cadence algorithm for unconstrained sensor placement

This paper evaluates a new and adaptive real-time cadence detection algorithm (CDA) for unconstrained sensor placement during walking and running. Conventional correlation procedures, dependent on sensor position and orientation, may alternately detect either steps or strides and consequently suffer from false negatives or positives. To overcome this limitation, the CDA validates correlation peaks as strides using the Sylvester's criterion (SC). This paper compares the CDA with conventional correlation methods.22 volunteers completed 7 different circuits (approx. 140 m) at three gaits-speeds: walking (1.5 m s- 1), running (3.4 m s- 1), and sprinting (5.2 and 5.7 m s- 1), disturbed by various gait-related activities. The algorithm was simultaneously evaluated for 10 different sensor positions. Reference strides were obtained from a foot sensor using a dedicated offline algorithm.The described algorithm resulted in consistent numbers of true positives (85.6-100.0%) and false positives (0.0-2.9%) and showed to be consistently accurate for cadence feedback across all circuits, subjects and sensors (mean ± SD: 98.9 ± 0.2%), compared to conventional cross-correlation (87.3 ± 13.5%), biased (73.0 ± 16.2) and unbiased (82.2 ± 20.6) autocorrelation procedures.This study shows that the SC significantly improves cadence detection, resulting in robust results for various gaits, subjects and sensor positions

Using rapid damage observations for Bayesian updating of hurricane vulnerability functions: A case study of Hurricane Dorian using social media

Rapid impact assessments immediately after disasters are crucial to enable rapid and effective mobilization of resources for response and recovery efforts. These assessments are often performed by analysing the three components of risk: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Vulnerability curves are often constructed using historic insurance data or expert judgments, reducing their applicability for the characteristics of the specific hazard and building stock. Therefore, this paper outlines an approach to the creation of event-specific vulnerability curves, using Bayesian statistics (i.e., the zero-one inflated beta distribution) to update a pre-existing vulnerability curve (i.e., the prior) with observed impact data derived from social media. The approach is applied in a case study of Hurricane Dorian, which hit the Bahamas in September 2019. We analysed footage shot predominantly from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and other airborne vehicles posted on YouTube in the first 10 days after the disaster. Due to its Bayesian nature, the approach can be used regardless of the amount of data available as it balances the contribution of the prior and the observations

Neuroimaging Biomarkers and Cognitive Function in Non-CNS Cancer and Its Treatment: Current Status and Recommendations for Future Research

Cognitive changes in patients undergoing treatment for non-central nervous system (CNS) cancers have been recognized for several decades, yet the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Structural, functional and molecular neuroimaging has the potential to help clarify the neural bases of these cognitive abnormalities. Structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), functional MRI (fMRI), diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), MR spectroscopy (MRS), and positron emission tomography (PET) have all been employed in the study of cognitive effects of cancer treatment, with most studies focusing on breast cancer and changes thought to be induced by chemotherapy. Articles in this special issue of Brain Imaging and Behavior are devoted to neuroimaging studies of cognitive changes in patients with non-CNS cancer and include comprehensive critical reviews and novel research findings. The broad conclusions that can be drawn from past studies and the present body of new research is that there are structural and functional changes associated with cancer and various treatments, particularly systemic cytotoxic chemotherapy, although some cognitive and fMRI studies have identified changes at pre-treatment baseline. Recommendations to accelerate progress include well-powered multicenter neuroimaging studies, a better standardized definition of the cognitive phenotype and extension to other cancers. A systems biology framework incorporating multimodality neuroimaging, genetics and other biomarkers will be highly informative regarding individual differences in risk and protective factors and disease- and treatment-related mechanisms. Studies of interventions targeting cognitive changes are also needed. These next steps are expected to identify novel protective strategies and facilitate a more personalized medicine for cancer patients

The obesity paradox in lung cancer : associations with body size versus body shape

Background: The association between obesity and lung cancer (LC) remains poorly understood. However, other indices of obesity on the basis of body shape instead of body size have not been examined yet. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between different indices of body size and body shape and the risk of LC. In particular, this study examined the association between A Body Shape Index, a more precise indicator of abdominal fat than traditional anthropometric measures, and the risk of LC. Methods: In the prospective cohort the Rotterdam Study, we analysed data of 9,689 participants. LC diagnoses were based on medical records and anthropometric measurements were assessed at baseline. Cox-regression analyses with corresponding Hazard Ratios were used to examine the association between the anthropometric measurements and the risk of LC with adjustment for potential confounders. Potential non-linear associations were explored with cubic splines using the Likelihood ratio (LR) test. Results: During follow-up, 319 participants developed LC. Body mass Index (BMI) was inversely associated with the risk of lung cancer (HR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91-0.97) and persisted after excluding lung cancer cases during the first 10 years of follow-up. There was evidence for a non-linear association between BMI and the risk of lung cancer (0,04, df = 1), which indicated that the inverse association between BMI and lung cancer was mainly present in non-obese participants. Waist circumference (WC) (HR 1.03 95% CI: 1.01-1.05), Waist-to-Hip Ratio (WHR) (HR 1.23 95% CI: 1.09-1.38) and ABSI (A Body Shape Index) (HR 1.17 95% CI: 1.05-1.30) were positively and linearly associated with the risk of lung cancer. Conclusions: Body shape rather than body size may be an important risk indicator of LC. Future research should focus on the role of visceral fat and the risk of LC as well as the underlying mechanisms

The nature of close companions of the BL Lac Objects 1ES 0502+675 and 1ES 1440+122

We report on deep radio images and optical spectroscopy of two BL Lac objects that have very close compact companions. The two targets, 1ES 0502+675 and 1ES 1440+122, were selected from the HST imaging survey of 110 BL Lacs as candidates for possible gravitational lensing. The new observations clearly demonstrate that the companion objects are not secondary images of the active nuclei but, in spite of the relatively low chance projection probability, foreground Galactic stars. Gravitational lensing appears to be unimportant to the BL Lac phenomenon. We discuss the radio properties of the BL Lac objects in the context of standard beaming models, and show they are as expected for beamed FRI radio galaxies.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, ApJ in pres