Decision making for transformative change: exploring model use, structural uncertainty and deep leverage points for change in decision making under deep uncertainty

Moving to a low carbon society requires pro-active decisions to transform social and physical systems and their supporting infrastructure. However, the inherent complexity of these systems leads to uncertainty in their responses to interventions, and their critical societal role means that stakes are high. Techniques for decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) have recently begun to be applied in the context of transformation to a low carbon society. Applying DMDU to support transformation necessitates careful attention to uncertainty in system relationships (structural uncertainty), and to actions targeting deep leverage points to transform system relationships. This paper presents outcomes of a structured literature review of 44 case studies in which DMDU is applied to infrastructure decisions. Around half of these studies are found to neglect structural uncertainty entirely, and no study explicitly considers alternative system conceptions. Three quarters of studies consider actions targeting only parameters, a shallow leverage point for system transformation. Where actions targeting deeper leverage points are included, models of system relationships are unable to represent the transformative change these interventions could effect. The lack of attention to structural uncertainty in these studies could lead to misleading results in complex and poorly understood systems. The lack of interventions targeting deep leverage points could lead to neglect of some of the most effective routes to achieving transformative change. This review recommends greater attention to deeper leverage points and structural uncertainty in applications of DMDU targeting transformative change

4D-Var Assimilation of MIPAS chemical observations: ozone and nitrogen dioxide analyses

International audienceThis paper discusses the global analyses of stratospheric ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) obtained by the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical Observations from Envisat (BASCOE). Based on a chemistry transport model (CTM) and the 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) method, BASCOE has assimilated chemical observations of O3, NO2, HNO3, N2O, CH4 and H2O, made between July 2002 and March 2004 by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) onboard the European Space Agency (ESA) Environment Satellite (ENVISAT). This corresponds to the entire period during which MIPAS was operating at its nominal resolution. Our analyses are evaluated against assimilated MIPAS data and independent HALOE (HALogen Occultation Experiment) and POAM-III (Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement) satellite data. A good agreement is generally found between the analyses and these datasets, in both cases within the estimated error bars of the observations. The benefit of data assimilation is also evaluated using a BASCOE free model run. For O3, the gain from the assimilation is significant during ozone hole conditions, and in the lower stratosphere. Elsewhere, the free model run is within the MIPAS uncertainties and the assimilation does not provide significant improvement. For NO2, the gain from the assimilation is realized through most of the stratosphere. Using the BASCOE analyses, we estimate the differences between MIPAS data and independent data from HALOE and POAM-III, and find results close to those obtained by classical validation methods involving only direct measurement-to-measurement comparisons. Our results extend and reinforce previous MIPAS data validation efforts by taking account of a much larger variety of atmospheric states and measurement conditions. This study discusses possible further developments of the BASCOE data assimilation system; these concern the horizontal resolution, a better filtering of NO2 observations, and the photolysis calculation near the lid of the model. The ozone analyses are publicly available via the PROMOTE project http://www.gse-promote.org)

Temporal variation in cave bear (Ursus spelaeus) dentition: The stratigraphic sequence of Scladina Cave, Belgium

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd The supposed herbivorous cave bear (Ursus spelaeus) occupied Europe throughout the Quaternary. Being subject to large spatial variation has led to the intensive study on its geographical polymorphism, generating debates on sub-speciation. However, temporal morphological information on the species is somewhat lacking. Here, we apply geometric morphometrics (GMM) technique to investigate temporal morphological variation in molar size and shape of Ursus spelaeus from different chronostratigraphic sediment units in a geographically confined site (Scladina Cave, Belgium), covering approximately 100,000 years. Our findings show significant morphological variation between groups analysed in both size and shape. M2 shows a chronological size increase with PCA plots visually expressing differences in all groups, relating to a buccolingual expansion and an increase of the talon masticatory platform through time. Reduction in the M1 is also shown, possibly to maintain biomechanical performance of dentition for effective mastication, more so in groups relating to the latter stages of the Quaternary. Findings suggest a rapid response to climatic factors constraining consumable food sources, with GMM offering a promising analytical approach in understanding the palaeobiology, palaeoecology and morphological variation in extinct and extant fossil mammals

DigiArt: towards a virtualization of Cultural Heritage

DigiArt is a Europe-wide project aimed at providing a new, cost efficient solution to the capture, processing and display of cultural artefacts. The project will change the ways in which the public interact with cultural objects and spaces in a dramatic way. This project is unique in its collaborative approach: cultural heritage professionals working directly with electrical, mechanical, optical and software engineers to develop a solution to current issues faced by the museum sector. The innovations created by the engineers are driven by the demand of the cultural heritage sector. The diversity of the objects and spaces of the three test museums are challenging the engineers to provide a tool useful for a broad variety of indoor and outdoor museums in the future. This goes from using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAVs or drones) to fly and record large sites, to using scanners to record fine jewellery. As a case study, we present here the use-case of Scladina Cave. At the end of the project, the Scladina Cave Archaeological Centre will offer two different visitor experiences. The first uses virtual reality, which will be available anytime, anywhere, to anyone with an internet connected device. The second will use augmented reality technologies within the cave site. The augmented reality visit of the cave will enhance the tour of Scladina by offering visits that would not be possible where it not for the augmented reality, where 3D objects and animations will contribute to offer a new 3D-immersive experience

A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe

Understanding the impacts of climate variability and change (CV&C) on electricity systems is paramount for operators preparing for weather-related disruptions, policymakers deciding on future directions of energy policies and European decision makers shaping research programs. This study conducted a systematic literature review to collate consistent patterns of impacts of CV&C on electricity systems in Europe. We found that, in the absence of adaptation and for current capacity, thermal electricity generation will decrease for the near term to mid-21st century (NT-MC) and the end of the 21st century (EC). In contrast, renewable electricity generation will increase for hydroelectricity in Northern Europe (NT-MC and EC), for solar electricity in Germany (NT-MC) and the United Kingdom and Spain (NT-MC and EC) and for wind electricity in the Iberian Peninsula (NT-MC) and over the Baltic and Aegean Sea (NT-MC and EC). Although the knowledge frontier in this area has advanced, the evidence available remains patchy. Future assessments should not only address some of the gaps identified but also better contextualise their results against those of earlier assessments. This review could provide a starting point for doing so

Nuclear DNA from two early Neandertals reveals 80,000 years of genetic continuity in Europe

Little is known about the population history of Neandertals over the hundreds of thousands of years of their existence. We retrieved nuclear genomic sequences from two Neandertals, one from Hohlenstein-Stadel Cave in Germany and the other from Scladina Cave in Belgium, who lived around 120,000 years ago. Despite the deeply divergent mitochondrial lineage present in the former individual, both Neandertals are genetically closer to later Neandertals from Europe than to a roughly contemporaneous individual from Siberia. That the Hohlenstein-Stadel and Scladina individuals lived around the time of their most recent common ancestor with later Neandertals suggests that all later Neandertals trace at least part of their ancestry back to these early European Neandertals

Methodological Guidelines for Engineering Self-organization and Emergence

The ASCENS project deals with the design and development of complex self-adaptive systems, where self-organization is one of the possible means by which to achieve self-adaptation. However, to support the development of self-organising systems, one has to extensively re-situate their engineering from a software architectures and requirements point of view. In particular, in this chapter, we highlight the importance of the decomposition in components to go from the problem to the engineered solution. This leads us to explain and rationalise the following architectural strategy: designing by following the problem organisation. We discuss architectural advantages for development and documentation, and its coherence with existing methodological approaches to self-organisation, and we illustrate the approach with an example on the area of swarm robotics

Local Government Revenue Mobilisation in Anglophone Africa

This paper examines opportunities and constraints facing local revenue mobilisation in anglophone Africa, with an emphasis on urban settings. It discusses specific revenue instruments and their effects on economic efficiency, income distribution and accountability. In particular, it addresses political and administrative constraints facing various revenue instruments and factors affecting citizens’ compliance. The analysis is illustrated with examples from across anglophone Africa. A general conclusion emerging from the study is that local revenues mobilised in most local government authorities in Africa are necessary but not sufficient to develop and supply adequate services for the fast-growing population. On this basis, areas for further research on local government revenue mobilisation in Africa are identifiedDfI

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state