A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting

The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: Hl Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H2 The relative advantage of objective over subjective methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. H3 Causal methods provide more accuracy than do naive methods. H4 The relative advantage of causal over naive methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. Support for these hypotheses was then obtained from the literature and from a study of a single market. The study used three different models to make ex ante forecasts of the U.S. air travel market from 1963 through 1968. These hypotheses imply that econometric methods are more accurate for long range market forecasting than are the major alternatives, expert judgment and extrapolation, and that the relative superiority of econometric methods increases as the time span of the forecast increases.long-range market forecasting, forecasting methods, forecasting

The Communication of Product Sensory Attributes and Innovation through Labeling

This article explores the influence of food product packaging on consumers’ sensory expectations and perceived newness of the product. Two experiments examine to what extent consumers use product typicality, graphical representations, and package typicality in evaluating new food products. Study 1 finds that (1) a typical flavor induces more positive expectations of pleasantness, taste, color, and smell, and (2) the presence of graphic representation on product labels increases perceived pleasantness but does not affect sensory expectations. Study 2 indicates that the product seems newer in the absence of a package (label-only condition), but when the product packaging is presented, an atypical package conveys more newness than a typical package. These results provide practical guidelines for the design and introduction of innovative food products

A Guanosine-Centric Mechanism for RNA Chaperone Function

RNA chaperones are ubiquitous, heterogeneous proteins essential for RNA structural biogenesis and function. We investigated the mechanism of chaperone-mediated RNA folding by following the time-resolved dimerization of the packaging domain of a retroviral RNA at nucleotide resolution. In the absence of the nucleocapsid (NC) chaperone, dimerization proceeded via multiple, slow-folding intermediates. In the presence of NC, dimerization occurred rapidly via a single structural intermediate. The RNA binding domain of hnRNP A1 protein (UP1), a structurally unrelated chaperone, also accelerated dimerization. Both chaperones interacted primarily with guanosine residues. Replacing guanosine with more weakly pairing inosine yielded an RNA that folded rapidly without a facilitating chaperone. These results show RNA chaperones can simplify RNA folding landscapes by weakening intramolecular interactions involving guanosine and explain many RNA chaperone activities

Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker

A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play

Cognitive Neuropsychology of HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Disorders

Advances in the treatment of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have dramatically improved survival rates over the past 10 years, but HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) remain highly prevalent and continue to represent a significant public health problem. This review provides an update on the nature, extent, and diagnosis of HAND. Particular emphasis is placed on critically evaluating research within the realm of cognitive neuropsychology that aims to elucidate the component processes of HAND across the domains of executive functions, motor skills, speeded information processing, episodic memory, attention/working memory, language, and visuoperception. In addition to clarifying the cognitive mechanisms of HAND (e.g., impaired cognitive control), the cognitive neuropsychology approach may enhance the ecological validity of neuroAIDS research and inform the development of much needed novel, targeted cognitive and behavioral therapies

Human and murine APOBEC3s restrict replication of koala retrovirus by different mechanisms

Background: Koala retrovirus (KoRV) is an endogenous and exogenous retrovirus of koalas that may cause lymphoma. As for many other gammaretroviruses, the KoRV genome can potentially encode an alternate form of Gag protein, glyco-gag. Results: In this study, a convenient assay for assessing KoRV infectivity in vitro was employed: the use of DERSE cells (initially developed to search for infectious xenotropic murine leukemia-like viruses). Using infection of DERSE and other human cell lines (HEK293T), no evidence for expression of glyco-gag by KoRV was found, either in expression of glyco-gag protein or changes in infectivity when the putative glyco-gag reading frame was mutated. Since glyco-gag mediates resistance of Moloney murine leukemia virus to the restriction factor APOBEC3, the sensitivity of KoRV (wt or putatively mutant for glyco-gag) to restriction by murine (mA3) or human APOBEC3s was investigated. Both mA3 and hA3G potently inhibited KoRV infectivity. Interestingly, hA3G restriction was accompanied by extensive G → A hypermutation during reverse transcription while mA3 restriction was not. Glyco-gag status did not affect the results. Conclusions: These results indicate that the mechanisms of APOBEC3 restriction of KoRV by hA3G and mA3 differ (deamination dependent vs. independent) and glyco-gag does not play a role in the restriction

A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting

The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: Hl Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H2 The relative advantage of objective over subjective methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. H3 Causal methods provide more accuracy than do naive methods. H4 The relative advantage of causal over naive methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. Support for these hypotheses was then obtained from the literature and from a study of a single market. The study used three different models to make ex ante forecasts of the U.S. air travel market from 1963 through 1968. These hypotheses imply that econometric methods are more accurate for long range market forecasting than are the major alternatives, expert judgment and extrapolation, and that the relative superiority of econometric methods increases as the time span of the forecast increases. Despite frequent claims that econometric methods will provide superior long-range forecasts, most firms still rely upon other approaches such as executive opinion or extrapolation methods (Pokemner and Bailey, 1970). This pape

Player account-based gambling: potentials for behaviour-based research methodologies

The emergence of player account-based gambling is a result of escalating technological sophistication and the incorporation of these developments into gambling. This term refers to gambling from a centralized account that is linked to an identified individual. Player account-based gambling is increasingly being utilized for multiple forms of Internet, mobile and land-based gambling through player cards and user-names. Player accounts track and store a wealth of data on gambling behaviour and related activities. Gambling research has been justifiably criticized for its reliance on self-report rather than behavioural measures. Research analysing player account data may advance conceptual models, identify behavioural risk factors for problem gambling and evaluate and guide effective policy and responsible gambling programmes. Although research utilizing player account data has unique limitations, it offers considerable benefits for researchers, operators and regulators. Research methodology incorporating the use of player account data stands to make significant contributions to the gambling field