Simulating glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) with a two-phase/layer debris flow model considering fluid-solid flow transitions

Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) initiate with the rapid outburst of a glacier lake, endangering downstream populations, land, and infrastructure. The flow initiates as a mud flow; however, with the entrainment of additional solid material, the flood will often transform into a debris flow. As the run-out slope flattens, the coarse solid material deposits and the flow de-waters. The flow transforms back into a muddy, hyperconcentrated flow of fine sediments in suspension. These flow transitions change the flow composition dramatically and influence both the overall mass balance and flow rheology of the event. In this paper, we apply a two-phase/layer model to simulate flow transitions, solid–fluid phase separations, entrainment, and run-out distances of glacier lake outburst floods. A key feature of the model is the calculation of dilatant actions in the solid–fluid mixture which control flow transitions and phase separations. Given their high initial amount of fluid within the flow, GLOFs are sensitive to slope changes inducing flow transitions, which also implies changes in the flow rheology. The changes in the rheology are computed as a function of the flow composition and do not need any adaptation by ad-hoc selection of friction coefficients. This procedure allows the application of constant rheological input parameters from initiation to run-out. Our goal is to increase the prediction reliability of debris flow modeling. We highlight the problems associated with initial and boundary (entrainment) conditions. We test the new model against the well-known Lake 513 (Peru, 2010), Lake Palcacocha (Peru, 1941), and Lake Uchitel in the Aksay Valley (Kyrgyzstan) GLOF events. We show that flow transition modeling is essential when studying areas that have significant variations in slope

Predicting heart failure outcome from cardiac and comorbid conditions: The 3C-HF score

Background: Prognostic stratification in heart failure (HF) is crucial to guide clinical management and treatment decision-making. Currently available models to predict HF outcome have multiple limitations. We developed a simple risk stratification model, based on routinely available clinical information including comorbidities, the Cardiac and Comorbid Conditions HF (3C-HF) Score, to predict all-cause 1-year mortality in HF patients. Methods: We recruited in a cohort study 6274 consecutive HF patients at 24 Cardiology and Internal Medicine Units in Europe. 2016 subjects formed the derivation cohort and 4258 the validation cohort.Weentered information on cardiac and comorbid candidate prognostic predictors in amultivariablemodel to predict 1-year outcome

Exercise intolerance in chronic heart failure : mechanisms and therapies. Part I

Muscular fatigue and dyspnoea on exertion are among the most common symptoms in chronic heart failure; however their origin is still poorly understood. Several studies have shown that cardiac dysfunction alone cannot fully explain their origin, but the contribution of the multiorgan failure present in this syndrome must be highlighted. In this study, divided in two parts (see part II: pp. 643-648), we aimed to summarize the existing evidence and the most controversial aspects of the complex interplay of different factors involved in symptom generation. In this first part of the review, six key factors are revised: the heart, the lung, the skeletal muscle, the hormonal changes, the O-2 delivery to the periphery, the endothelium. In the second part, the role of the excitatory reflexes and the cardiac cachexia will be presented, and finally, the potential therapeutic implications are discussed. We believe that a better knowledge of the pathophysiology of this syndrome may contribute to the management of the patients and to the improvement in their stress tolerance and quality of life. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil 17:637-642 (C) 2010 The European Society of Cardiolog

Prognostic Value of Indeterminable Anaerobic Threshold in Heart Failure.

Background In patients with heart failure (HF), during maximal cardiopulmonary exercise test, anaerobic threshold (AT) is not always identified. We evaluated whether this finding has a prognostic meaning. Methods and Results We recruited and prospectively followed up, in 14 dedicated HF units, 3058 patients with systolic (left ventricular ejection fraction <40%) HF in stable clinical conditions, New York Heart Association class I to III, who underwent clinical, laboratory, echocardiographic, and cardiopulmonary exercise test investigations at study enrollment. We excluded 921 patients who did not perform a maximal exercise, based on lack of achievement of anaerobic metabolism (peak respiratory quotient 1.05). Primary study end point was a composite of cardiovascular death and urgent cardiac transplant, and secondary end point was all-cause death. Median follow-up was 3.01 (1.39-4.98) years. AT was identified in 1935 out of 2137 patients (90.54%). At multivariable logistic analysis, failure in detecting AT resulted significantly in reduced peak oxygen uptake and higher metabolic exercise and cardiac and kidney index score value, a powerful prognostic composite HF index (P<0.001). At multivariable analysis, the following variables were significantly associated with primary study end point: peak oxygen uptake (% pred; P<0.001; hazard ratio [HR]=0.977; confidence interval [CI]=0.97-0.98), ventilatory efficiency slope (P=0.01; HR=1.02; CI=1.01-1.03), hemoglobin (P<0.05; HR=0.931; CI=0.87-1.00), left ventricular ejection fraction (P<0.001; HR=0.948; CI=0.94-0.96), renal function (modification of diet in renal disease; P<0.001; HR=0.990; CI=0.98-0.99), sodium (P<0.05; HR=0.967; CI=0.94-0.99), and AT nonidentification (P<0.05; HR=1.41; CI=1.06-1.89). Nonidentification of AT remained associated to prognosis also when compared with metabolic exercise and cardiac and kidney index score (P<0.01; HR=1.459; CI=1.09-1.10). Similar results were obtained for the secondary study end point. Conclusions The inability to identify AT most often occurs in patients with severe HF, and it has an independent prognostic role in HF

Exploring the Prognostic Performance of MECKI Score in Heart Failure Patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation Treated with Edoxaban

Introduction: Risk stratification in heart failure (HF) is essential for clinical and therapeutic management. The Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score is a validated prognostic model for assessing cardiovascular risk in HF patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). From the validation of the score, the prevalence of HF patients treated with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), such as edoxaban, for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) has been increasing in recent years. This study aims to evaluate the reliability of the MECKI score in HFrEF patients treated with edoxaban for NVAF. Materials and Methods: This study included consecutive outpatients with HF and NVAF treated with edoxaban (n = 83) who underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET). They were matched by propensity score with a retrospective group of HFrEF patients with NVAF treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) from the MECKI score registry (n = 844). The study endpoint was the risk of cardiovascular mortality, urgent heart transplantation, or Left Ventricle Assist Device (LVAD) implantation. Results: Edoxaban patients were treated with a more optimized HF therapy and had different clinical characteristics, with a similar MECKI score. After propensity score, 77 patients treated with edoxaban were successfully matched with the MECKI-VKA control cohort. In both groups, MECKI accurately predicted the composite endpoint with similar area under the curves (AUC = 0.757 vs. 0.829 in the MECKI-VKA vs. edoxaban-treated group, respectively, p = 0.452). The two populations’ survival appeared non-significantly different at the 2-year follow-up. Conclusions: this study confirms the prognostic accuracy of the MECKI score in HFrEF patients with NVAF treated with edoxaban, showing improved predictive power compared to VKA-treated patients

Multiparametric prognostic scores in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: a long-term comparison

Aims: Risk stratification in heart failure (HF) is crucial for clinical and therapeutic management. A multiparametric approach is the best method to stratify prognosis. In 2012, the Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score was proposed to assess the risk of cardiovascular mortality and urgent heart transplantation. The aim of the present study was to compare the prognostic accuracy of MECKI score to that of HF Survival Score (HFSS) and Seattle HF Model (SHFM) in a large, multicentre cohort of HF patients with reduced ejection fraction. Methods and results: We collected data on 6112 HF patients and compared the prognostic accuracy of MECKI score, HFSS, and SHFM at 2- and 4-year follow-up for the combined endpoint of cardiovascular death, urgent cardiac transplantation, or ventricular assist device implantation. Patients were followed up for a median of 3.67 years, and 931 cardiovascular deaths, 160 urgent heart transplantations, and 12 ventricular assist device implantations were recorded. At 2-year follow-up, the prognostic accuracy of MECKI score was significantly superior [area under the curve (AUC) 0.781] to that of SHFM (AUC 0.739) and HFSS (AUC 0.723), and this relationship was also confirmed at 4 years (AUC 0.764, 0.725, and 0.720, respectively). Conclusion: In this cohort, the prognostic accuracy of the MECKI score was superior to that of HFSS and SHFM at 2- and 4-year follow-up in HF patients in stable clinical condition. The MECKI score may be useful to improve resource allocation and patient outcome, but prospective evaluation is needed

Rationale and design of the Multidisciplinary Approach to Novel Therapies in Cardiology Oncology Research Trial (MANTICORE 101 - Breast): a randomized, placebo-controlled trial to determine if conventional heart failure pharmacotherapy can prevent trastuzumab-mediated left ventricular remodeling among patients with HER2+ early breast cancer using cardiac MRI

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>MANTICORE 101 - Breast (Multidisciplinary Approach to Novel Therapies in Cardiology Oncology Research) is a randomized trial to determine if conventional heart failure pharmacotherapy (angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor or beta-blocker) can prevent trastuzumab-mediated left ventricular remodeling, measured with cardiac MRI, among patients with HER2+ early breast cancer.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>One hundred and fifty-nine patients with histologically confirmed HER2+ breast cancer will be enrolled in a parallel 3-arm, randomized, placebo controlled, double-blind design. After baseline assessments, participants will be randomized in a 1:1:1 ratio to an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (perindopril), beta-blocker (bisoprolol), or placebo. Participants will receive drug or placebo for 1 year beginning 7 days before trastuzumab therapy. Dosages for all groups will be systematically up-titrated, as tolerated, at 1 week intervals for a total of 3 weeks. The primary objective of this randomized clinical trial is to determine if conventional heart failure pharmacotherapy can prevent trastuzumab-mediated left ventricular remodeling among patients with HER2+ early breast cancer, as measured by 12 month change in left ventricular end-diastolic volume using cardiac MRI. Secondary objectives include 1) determine the evolution of left ventricular remodeling on cardiac MRI in patients with HER2+ early breast cancer, 2) understand the mechanism of trastuzumab mediated cardiac toxicity by assessing for the presence of myocardial injury and apoptosis on serum biomarkers and cardiac MRI, and 3) correlate cardiac biomarkers of myocyte injury and extra-cellular matrix remodeling with left ventricular remodeling on cardiac MRI in patients with HER2+ early breast cancer.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Cardiac toxicity as a result of cancer therapies is now recognized as a significant health problem of increasing prevalence. To our knowledge, MANTICORE will be the first randomized trial testing proven heart failure pharmacotherapy in the prevention of trastuzumab-mediated cardiotoxicity. We expect the findings of this trial to provide important evidence in the development of guidelines for preventive therapy.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01016886">NCT01016886</a></p

A Crucial Role of Activin A-Mediated Growth Hormone Suppression in Mouse and Human Heart Failure

Infusion of bone marrow-derived mononuclear cells (BMMNC) has been reported to ameliorate cardiac dysfunction after acute myocardial infarction. In this study, we investigated whether infusion of BMMNC is also effective for non-ischemic heart failure model mice and the underlying mechanisms. Intravenous infusion of BMMNC showed transient cardioprotective effects on animal models with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) without their engraftment in heart, suggesting that BMMNC infusion improves cardiac function via humoral factors rather than their differentiation into cardiomyocytes. Using conditioned media from sorted BMMNC, we found that the cardioprotective effects were mediated by growth hormone (GH) secreted from myeloid (Gr-1(+)) cells and the effects was partially mediated by signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 in cardiomyocytes. On the other hand, the GH expression in Gr-1(+) cells was significantly downregulated in DCM mice compared with that in healthy control, suggesting that the environmental cue in heart failure might suppress the Gr-1(+) cells function. Activin A was upregulated in the serum of DCM models and induced downregulation of GH levels in Gr-1(+) cells and serum. Furthermore, humoral factors upregulated in heart failure including angiotensin II upregulated activin A in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMNC) via activation of NFκB. Similarly, serum activin A levels were also significantly higher in DCM patients with heart failure than in healthy subjects and the GH levels in conditioned medium from PBMNC of DCM patients were lower than that in healthy subjects. Inhibition of activin A increased serum GH levels and improved cardiac function of DCM model mice. These results suggest that activin A causes heart failure by suppressing GH activity and that inhibition of activin A might become a novel strategy for the treatment of heart failure

Orbital redistribution in molecular nanostructures mediated by metal-organic bonds

Dicyanovinyl-quinquethiophene (DCV5T-Me) is a prototype conjugated oligomer for highly efficient organic solar cells. This class of oligothiophenes are built up by an electron-rich donor (D) backbone and terminal electron-deficient acceptor (A) moieties. Here, we investigated its structural and electronic properties when it is adsorbed on a Au(111) surface using low temperature scanning tunneling microscopy/spectroscopy (STM/STS) and atomic force microscopy (AFM). We find that DCV5T-Me self-assembles in extended chains, stabilized by intercalated Au atoms. The effect of metal-ligand hybridization with Au adatoms causes an energetic downshift of the DCV5T-Me lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) with respect to the uncoordinated molecules on the surface. The asymmetric coordination of a gold atom to only one molecular end group leads to an asymmetric localization of the LUMO and LUMO+1 states at opposite sides. Using model density functional theory (DFT) calculations, we explain such orbital reshaping as a consequence of linear combinations of the original LUMO and LUMO+1 orbitals, mixed by the attachment of a bridging Au adatom. Our study shows that the alignment of molecular orbitals and their distribution within individual molecules can be modified by contacting them to metal atoms in specific sites