Mutual Events in the Cold Classical Transneptunian Binary System Sila and Nunam

Hubble Space Telescope observations between 2001 and 2010 resolved the binary components of the Cold Classical transneptunian object (79360) Sila-Nunam (provisionally designated 1997 CS29). From these observations we have determined the circular, retrograde mutual orbit of Nunam relative to Sila with a period of 12.50995 \pm 0.00036 days and a semimajor axis of 2777 \pm 19 km. A multi-year season of mutual events, in which the two near-equal brightness bodies alternate in passing in front of one another as seen from Earth, is in progress right now, and on 2011 Feb. 1 UT, one such event was observed from two different telescopes. The mutual event season offers a rich opportunity to learn much more about this barely-resolvable binary system, potentially including component sizes, colors, shapes, and albedo patterns. The low eccentricity of the orbit and a photometric lightcurve that appears to coincide with the orbital period are consistent with a system that is tidally locked and synchronized, like the Pluto-Charon system. The orbital period and semimajor axis imply a system mass of (10.84 \pm 0.22) \times 10^18 kg, which can be combined with a size estimate based on Spitzer and Herschel thermal infrared observations to infer an average bulk density of 0.72 +0.37 -0.23 g cm^-3, comparable to the very low bulk densities estimated for small transneptunian binaries of other dynamical classes.Comment: In press in Icaru

Chemostratigraphy of Neoproterozoic carbonates: implications for 'blind dating'

The delta C-13(carb) and Sr-87/Sr-86 secular variations in Neoproteozoic seawater have been used for the purpose of 'isotope stratigraphy' but there are a number of problems that can preclude its routine use. In particular, it cannot be used with confidence for 'blind dating'. The compilation of isotopic data on carbonate rocks reveals a high level of inconsistency between various carbon isotope age curves constructed for Neoproteozoic seawater, caused by a relatively high frequency of both global and local delta C-13(carb) fluctuations combined with few reliable age determinations. Further complication is caused by the unresolved problem as to whether two or four glaciations, and associated negative delta C-13(carb) excursions, can be reliably documented. Carbon isotope stratigraphy cannot be used alone for geological correlation and 'blind dating'. Strontium isotope stratigraphy is a more reliable and precise tool for stratigraphic correlations and indirect age determinations. Combining strontium and carbon isotope stratigraphy, several discrete ages within the 590-544 Myr interval, and two age-groups at 660-610 and 740-690 Myr can be resolved

The Western Australian regional forest agreement: economic rationalism and the normalisation of political closure

This article explores the constraints imposed by economic rationalism on environmental policy-making in light of Western Australia\u27s (WA) Regional Forest Agreement (RFA) experience. Data derived from interviews with WA RFA stakeholders shed light on their perceptions of the RFA process and its outcomes. The extent to which involvement of science and the public RFA management enabled is analysed. The findings point to a pervasive constrainedness of WA\u27s RFA owing to a closing of the process by the administrative decision-making structures. A dominant economic rationality is seen to have normalised and legitimised political closure, effectively excluding rationalities dissenting from an implicit economic orthodoxy. This article argues for the explication of invisible, economic constraints affecting environmental policy and for the public-cum-political negotiation of the points of closure within political processes

Acceptance and commitment therapy for people living with motor neuron disease: an uncontrolled feasibility study

Background Motor neuron disease (MND) is a fatal, progressive neurodegenerative disease that causes progressive weakening and wasting of limb, bulbar, thoracic and abdominal muscles. Clear evidence-based guidance on how psychological distress should be managed in people living with MND (plwMND) is lacking. Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) is a form of psychological therapy that may be particularly suitable for this population. However, to the authors' knowledge, no study to date has evaluated ACT for plwMND. Consequently, the primary aim of this uncontrolled feasibility study was to examine the feasibility and acceptability of ACT for improving the psychological health of plwMND. Methods PlwMND aged ≥ 18 years were recruited from 10 UK MND Care Centres/Clinics. Participants received up to 8 one-to-one ACT sessions, developed specifically for plwMND, plus usual care. Co-primary feasibility and acceptability outcomes were uptake (≥ 80% of the target sample [N = 28] recruited) and initial engagement with the intervention (≥ 70% completing ≥ 2 sessions). Secondary outcomes included measures of quality of life, anxiety, depression, disease-related functioning, health status and psychological flexibility in plwMND and quality of life and burden in caregivers. Outcomes were assessed at baseline and 6 months. Results Both a priori indicators of success were met: 29 plwMND (104%) were recruited and 76% (22/29) attended ≥ 2 sessions. Attrition at 6-months was higher than anticipated (8/29, 28%), but only two dropouts were due to lack of acceptability of the intervention. Acceptability was further supported by good satisfaction with therapy and session attendance. Data were possibly suggestive of small improvements in anxiety and psychological quality of life from baseline to 6 months in plwMND, despite a small but expected deterioration in disease-related functioning and health status. Conclusions There was good evidence of acceptability and feasibility. Limitations included the lack of a control group and small sample size, which complicate interpretation of findings. A fully powered RCT to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of ACT for plwMND is underway

Is developmental prosopagnosia best characterised as an apperceptive or mnemonic condition?

Traditionally, developmental prosopagnosia (DP) has been thought of as an apperceptive condition that hinders individuals’ ability to encode face structure. However, several authors have recently raised the possibility that many DPs may be able to form accurate percepts, but be unable to maintain those percepts over time. The present study sought to distinguish these possibilities. In our first experiment 16 DPs and 22 typical controls completed a delayed match-to-sample task with face and car stimuli, with a retention interval of 1-second (low demand) or 6-seconds (high demand). As expected, the participants with DP were worse than the controls at face matching, and were disproportionately impaired at matching faces relative to cars. However, the relative degree of impairment seen in the DPs did not interact with retention interval; they exhibited similar levels of impairment when matching faces with 1- and 6-second delays. Next, we compared the performance of 72 DPs and 54 typical controls on the Cambridge Face Perception Test (CFPT), a task that measures face perception ability in a way that minimises the memory demands. As expected, we found that the DPs were impaired at the group level. This difference was not attributable to a few individuals with an apperceptive profile; rather we found evidence that the distribution of CFPT scores seen in the DP sample was shifted relative to that of typical controls. Some heterogeneity is likely in any neurodevelopmental population, and DP is no different. Generally, however, these findings suggest that selective STFM impairment may be relatively uncommon in this population. Instead, deficits of perceptual encoding may play a larger role in DP than currently acknowledged

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3-19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8-144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries