Comparison of storm damage functions and their performance

Winter storms are the most costly natural hazard for European residential property. We compare four distinct storm damage functions with respect to their forecast accuracy and variability, with particular regard to the most severe winter storms. The analysis focuses on daily loss estimates under differing spatial aggregation, ranging from district to country level. We discuss the broad and heavily skewed distribution of insured losses posing difficulties for both the calibration and the evaluation of damage functions. From theoretical considerations, we provide a synthesis between the frequently discussed cubic wind–damage relationship and recent studies that report much steeper damage functions for European winter storms. The performance of the storm loss models is evaluated for two sources of wind gust data, direct observations by the German Weather Service and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. While the choice of gust data has little impact on the evaluation of German storm loss, spatially resolved coefficients of variation reveal dependence between model and data choice. The comparison shows that the probabilistic models by Heneka et al. (2006) and Prahl et al. (2012) both provide accurate loss predictions for moderate to extreme losses, with generally small coefficients of variation. We favour the latter model in terms of model applicability. Application of the versatile deterministic model by Klawa and Ulbrich (2003) should be restricted to extreme loss, for which it shows the least bias and errors comparable to the probabilistic model by Prahl et al. (2012)

Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions-a case study for Germany

The aim of the study is to analyze and discuss possible climate change impacts on flood damages in Germany. The study was initiated and supported by the German insurance sector whereby the main goal was to identify general climate-related trends in flood hazard and damages and to explore sensitivity of results to climate scenario uncertainty. The study makes use of climate scenarios regionalized for the main river basins in Germany. A hydrological model (SWIM) that had been calibrated and validated for the main river gauges, was applied to transform these scenarios into discharge for more than 5000 river reaches. Extreme value distribution has been fitted to the time series of river discharge to derive the flood frequency statistics. The hydrological results for each river reach have been linked using the flood statistics to related damage functions provided by the German Insurance Association, considering damages on buildings and small enterprises. The result is that, under the specific scenario conditions, a considerable increase in flood related losses can be expected in Germany in future, warmer, climate

An Improved Search for the Neutron Electric Dipole Moment

A permanent electric dipole moment of fundamental spin-1/2 particles violates both parity (P) and time re- versal (T) symmetry, and hence, also charge-parity (CP) symmetry since there is no sign of CPT-violation. The search for a neutron electric dipole moment (nEDM) probes CP violation within and beyond the Stan- dard Model. The experiment, set up at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), an improved, upgraded version of the apparatus which provided the current best experimental limit, dn < 2.9E-26 ecm (90% C.L.), by the RAL/Sussex/ILL collaboration: Baker et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 97, 131801 (2006). In the next two years we aim to improve the sensitivity of the apparatus to sigma(dn) = 2.6E-27 ecm corresponding to an upper limit of dn < 5E-27 ecm (95% C.L.), in case for a null result. In parallel the collaboration works on the design of a new apparatus to further increase the sensitivity to sigma(dn) = 2.6E-28 ecm.Comment: APS Division for particles and fields, Conference Proceedings, Two figure

Constraining interactions mediated by axion-like particles with ultracold neutrons

We report a new limit on a possible short range spin-dependent interaction from the precise measurement of the ratio of Larmor precession frequencies of stored ultracold neutrons and $^{199}$Hg atoms confined in the same volume. The measurement was performed in a $\sim$1$\mu$ T vertical magnetic holding field with the apparatus searching for a permanent electric dipole moment of the neutron at the Paul Scherrer Institute. A possible coupling between freely precessing polarized neutron spins and unpolarized nucleons of the wall material can be investigated by searching for a tiny change of the precession frequencies of neutron and mercury spins. Such a frequency change can be interpreted as a consequence of a short range spin-dependent interaction that could possibly be mediated by axions or axion-like particles. The interaction strength is proportional to the CP violating product of scalar and pseudoscalar coupling constants $g_Sg_P$. Our result confirms limits from complementary experiments with spin-polarized nuclei in a model-independent way. Limits from other neutron experiments are improved by up to two orders of magnitude in the interaction range of $10^{-6}<\lambda<10^{-4}$ m

An Improved Neutron Electric Dipole Moment Experiment

A new measurement of the neutron EDM, using Ramsey's method of separated oscillatory fields, is in preparation at the new high intensity source of ultra-cold neutrons (UCN) at the Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, Switzerland (PSI). The existence of a non-zero nEDM would violate both parity and time reversal symmetry and, given the CPT theorem, might lead to a discovery of new CP violating mechanisms. Already the current upper limit for the nEDM (|d_n|<2.9E-26 e.cm) constrains some extensions of the Standard Model. The new experiment aims at a two orders of magnitude reduction of the experimental uncertainty, to be achieved mainly by (1) the higher UCN flux provided by the new PSI source, (2) better magnetic field control with improved magnetometry and (3) a double chamber configuration with opposite electric field directions. The first stage of the experiment will use an upgrade of the RAL/Sussex/ILL group's apparatus (which has produced the current best result) moved from Institut Laue-Langevin to PSI. The final accuracy will be achieved in a further step with a new spectrometer, presently in the design phase.Comment: Flavor Physics & CP Violation Conference, Taipei, 200

Revised experimental upper limit on the electric dipole moment of the neutron

We present for the first time a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the experimental results that set the current world sensitivity limit on the magnitude of the electric dipole moment (EDM) of the neutron. We have extended and enhanced our earlier analysis to include recent developments in the understanding of the effects of gravity in depolarizing ultracold neutrons; an improved calculation of the spectrum of the neutrons; and conservative estimates of other possible systematic errors, which are also shown to be consistent with more recent measurements undertaken with the apparatus. We obtain a net result of dn=−0.21±1.82×10−26  e cm, which may be interpreted as a slightly revised upper limit on the magnitude of the EDM of 3.0×10−26  e cm (90% C.L.) or 3.6×10−26  e cm (95% C.L.)

Measurement of the permanent electric dipole moment of the neutron

We present the result of an experiment to measure the electric dipole moment EDM) of the neutron at the Paul Scherrer Institute using Ramsey's method of separated oscillating magnetic fields with ultracold neutrons (UCN). Our measurement stands in the long history of EDM experiments probing physics violating time reversal invariance. The salient features of this experiment were the use of a Hg-199 co-magnetometer and an array of optically pumped cesium vapor magnetometers to cancel and correct for magnetic field changes. The statistical analysis was performed on blinded datasets by two separate groups while the estimation of systematic effects profited from an unprecedented knowledge of the magnetic field. The measured value of the neutron EDM is d_{\rm n} = (0.0\pm1.1_{\rm stat}\pm0.2_{\rmsys})\times10^{-26}e\,{\rm cm}

Quantum cascade laser based hybrid dual comb spectrometer

Four-wave-mixing-based quantum cascade laser frequency combs (QCL-FC) are a powerful photonic tool, driving a recent revolution in major molecular fingerprint regions, i.e. mid- and far-infrared domains. Their compact and frequency-agile design, together with their high optical power and spectral purity, promise to deliver an all-in-one source for the most challenging spectroscopic applications. Here, we demonstrate a metrological-grade hybrid dual comb spectrometer, combining the advantages of a THz QCL-FC with the accuracy and absolute frequency referencing provided by a free-standing, optically-rectified THz frequency comb. A proof-of-principle application to methanol molecular transitions is presented. The multi-heterodyne molecular spectra retrieved provide state-of-the-art results in line-center determination, achieving the same precision as currently available molecular databases. The devised setup provides a solid platform for a new generation of THz spectrometers, paving the way to more refined and sophisticated systems exploiting full phase control of QCL-FCs, or Doppler-free spectroscopic schemes

Revised experimental upper limit on the electric dipole moment of the neutron

We present for the first time a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the experimental results that set the current world sensitivity limit on the magnitude of the electric dipole moment (EDM) of the neutron. We have extended and enhanced our earlier analysis to include recent developments in the understanding of the effects of gravity in depolarizing ultracold neutrons; an improved calculation of the spectrum of the neutrons; and conservative estimates of other possible systematic errors, which are also shown to be consistent with more recent measurements undertaken with the apparatus. We obtain a net result of dn=−0.21±1.82×10−26  e cm, which may be interpreted as a slightly revised upper limit on the magnitude of the EDM of 3.0×10−26  e cm (90% C.L.) or 3.6×10−26  e cm (95% C.L.)