Quantifying thermal extremes and biological variation to predict evolutionary responses to changing climate

Central ideas from thermal biology, including thermal performance curves and tolerances, have been widely used to evaluate how changes in environmental means and variances generate changes in fitness, selection and microevolution in response to climate change. We summarize the opportunities and challenges for extending this approach to understanding the consequences of extreme climatic events. Using statistical tools from extreme value theory, we show how distributions of thermal extremes vary with latitude, time scale and climate change. Second, we review how performance curves and tolerances have been used to predict the fitness and evolutionary responses to climate change and climate gradients. Performance curves and tolerances change with prior thermal history and with time scale, complicating their use for predicting responses to thermal extremes. Third, we describe several recent case studies showing how infrequent extreme events can have outsized effects on the evolution of performance curves and heat tolerance. A key issue is whether thermal extremes affect reproduction or survival, and how these combine to determine overall fitness. We argue that a greater focus on tails-in the distribution of environmental extremes, and in the upper ends of performance curves-is needed to understand the consequences of extreme events.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'

Species' traits predict phenological responses to climate change in butterflies

How do species' traits help identify which species will respond most strongly to future climate change? We examine the relationship between species' traits and phenology in a well-established model system for climate change, the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS). Most resident U.K. butterfly species have significantly advanced their dates of first appearance during the past 30 years. We show that species with narrower larval diet breadth and more advanced overwintering stages have experienced relatively greater advances in their date of first appearance. In addition, species with smaller range sizes have experienced greater phenological advancement. Our results demonstrate that species' traits can be important predictors of responses to climate change, and they suggest that further investigation of the mechanisms by which these traits influence phenology may aid in understanding species' responses to current and future climate change

Historical changes in thermoregulatory traits of alpine butterflies reveal complex ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change

Abstract Background Trait evolution and plasticity are expected to interactively influence responses to climate change, but rapid changes in and increased variability of temperature may limit evolutionary responses. We use historical specimens to document changes in the size and thermoregulatory traits of a montane butterfly, Colias meadii, in Colorado, USA over the past 60 years (1953–2012). We quantify forewing wing length, ventral wing melanin that increases solar absorption, and the length of thorax setae that reduces convective heat loss. Results The mean of all three traits has increased during this time period despite climate warming. Phenological shifts may have extended the active season earlier at low elevations and later at high elevations, increasing exposure to cool temperatures and selecting for increases in thermoregulatory traits. Fitness increases at higher elevations due to warming could also increase thermoregulatory traits. Warmer temperatures during pupal development and later flight dates in the season are associated with decreased wing melanin, indicating a role of phenotypic plasticity in historical trait changes. Conclusions Phenotypic shifts result from a complex interplay of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change. Environmental variability within and across seasons can limit the evolutionary responses of populations to increasing mean temperatures during climate change

Morphological and physiological determinants of local adaptation to climate in Rocky Mountain butterflies

Flight is a central determinant of fitness in butterflies and other insects, but it is restricted to a limited range of body temperatures. To achieve these body temperatures, butterflies use a combination of morphological, behavioural and physiological mechanisms. Here, we used common garden (without direct solar radiation) and reciprocal transplant (full solar radiation) experiments in the field to determine the thermal sensitivity of flight initiation for two species of Colias butterflies along an elevation gradient in the southwestern Rocky Mountains. The mean body temperature for flight initiation in the field was lower (24–26°C) than indicated by previous studies (28–30°C) in these species. There were small but significant differences in thermal sensitivity of flight initiation between species; high-elevation Colias meadii initiated flight at a lower mean body temperature than lower-elevation Colias eriphyle. Morphological differences (in wing melanin and thoracic setae) drive body temperature differences between species and contributed strongly to differences in the time and probability of flight and air temperatures at flight initiation. Our results suggest that differences both in thermal sensitivity (15% contribution) and in morphology (85% contribution) contribute to the differences in flight initiation between the two species in the field. Understanding these differences, which influence flight performance and fitness, aids in forecasting responses to climate change

Conservatism of lizard thermal tolerances and body temperatures across evolutionary history and geography

Species may exhibit similar thermal tolerances via either common ancestry or environmental filtering and local adaptation, if the species inhabit similar environments. We ask whether upper and lower thermal limits (critical thermal maxima and minima) and body temperatures are more strongly conserved across evolutionary history or geography for lizard populations distributed globally. We find that critical thermal maxima are highly conserved with location accounting for a higher proportion of the variation than phylogeny. Notably, thermal tolerance breadth is conserved across the phylogeny despite critical thermal minima showing little niche conservatism. Body temperatures observed during activity in the field show the greatest degree of conservatism, with phylogeny accounting for most of the variation. This suggests that propensities for thermoregulatory behaviour, which can buffer body temperatures from environmental variation, are similar within lineages. Phylogeny and geography constrain thermal tolerances similarly within continents, but variably within clades. Conservatism of thermal tolerances across lineages suggests that the potential for local adaptation to alleviate the impacts of climate change on lizards may be limited

Clinical and imaging considerations in primary immunodeficiency disorders: an update

Primary immunodeficiencies are a group of genetically determined disorders with diverse presentations. The purpose of this review is to provide a practical and brief description of a select number of these diseases and to discuss the important role the radiologist can have in making an early diagnosis and in detecting and following disease complications. The role of diagnostic imaging and informed performance and interpretation are vital in the diagnosis, surveillance and management of all primary immunodeficiency disorders

Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change

How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats

Police referrals for domestic abuse before and during the first COVID-19 lockdown: An analysis of routine data from one specialist service in South Wales.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 lockdown measures may have led to more, and increasingly severe, domestic abuse. This study examines police referrals to a specialist domestic abuse service in Wales, UK before and during the first lockdown. METHODS: Routine data relating to 2292 police referrals for female adult victim-survivors from December 2019 until July 2020 were analysed and presented in the form of descriptive statistics to monitor changes in referral rates and the profile of those referrals. RESULTS: There was little increase in the overall volume of police referrals during lockdown, but the proportion assessed as high risk increased, and children became the primary source of third-party referrals, with a higher proportion of reports made by other third parties as restrictions eased. Police reports for cases of Child/Adolescent to Parent Violence (C/APV) occurred almost exclusively during lockdown. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in risk level despite less clear increase in volume may suggest unmet need, with victims less likely to seek help during lockdown other than for more severe instances. Increased reports by children suggest increased exposure of children to domestic abuse during school closure. Unmet need for women and children may have been made visible to services, and acquaintances, as measures began to ease.National Institute for Health Research via the Public Health Research funding committee (NIHR127793)

Making alternative fuel vehicles work: Storage through absorption on Missouri corn cob

Abstract only availableThe USA's current demand for petroleum leads to many problems (many being global concerns as well): a dependence on foreign nations for our energy, an increase in pollution/global warming, and high gas prices. Each of those is the source of many more problems that will become worse if not addressed: Foreign dependence results in oil-effected politics and economic foreign dependence. Pollution and global warming result in an increase in the destruction of natural habitats due to changing climates, skin damage/cancer due to sun exposure, and natural disasters such as hurricanes and tornadoes that depend on higher temperatures. Along with gas prices increasing, so will the prices of goods and services as the cost of energy to produce them increases. My research with the Alliance for Collaborative Research in Alternative Fuel Technology addresses these issues by overcoming many of the hurdles that make current alternative fuels impractical. We have produced porous activated carbons that store high capacities of methane (natural gas) through physisorption for use in vehicle tanks. In optimizing storage capacity, we have studied production methods that vary the pore size distributions, surface areas, and densities of our carbons. We have found that the optimal pore size for methane is 1.1 nanometers and that it is best to maximize surface area and density. Our current best performers store 115-119 grams of methane per liter of carbon at ambient temperature and 34 bar, compared to the DOE target of 118 g/L. Our research is now expanding to include hydrogen storage.Alliance for Collaborative Research in Alternative Fuel Technolog

Macrosystems ecology: Understanding ecological patterns and processes at continental scales

Macrosystems ecology is the study of diverse ecological phenomena at the scale of regions to continents and their interactions with phenomena at other scales. This emerging subdiscipline addresses ecological questions and environmental problems at these broad scales. Here, we describe this new field, show how it relates to modern ecological study, and highlight opportunities that stem from taking a macrosystems perspective. We present a hierarchical framework for investigating macrosystems at any level of ecological organization and in relation to broader and finer scales. Building on well-established theory and concepts from other subdisciplines of ecology, we identify feedbacks, linkages among distant regions, and interactions that cross scales of space and time as the most likely sources of unexpected and novel behaviors in macrosystems. We present three examples that highlight the importance of this multiscaled systems perspective for understanding the ecology of regions to continents