Incorporating physiology into species distribution models moderates the projected impact of warming on selected Mediterranean marine species

Species distribution models (SDMs) correlate species occurrences with environmental predictors, and can be used to forecast distributions under future climates. SDMs have been criticized for not explicitly including the physiological processes underlying the species response to the environment. Recently, new methods have been suggested to combine SDMs with physiological estimates of performance (physiology-SDMs). In this study, we compare SDM and physiology-SDM predictions for select marine species in the Mediterranean Sea, a region subjected to exceptionally rapid climate change. We focused on six species and created physiology-SDMs that incorporate physiological thermal performance curves from experimental data with species occurrence records. We then contrasted projections of SDMs and physiology-SDMs under future climate (year 2100) for the entire Mediterranean Sea, and particularly the ‘warm’ trailing edge in the Levant region. Across the Mediterranean, we found cross-validation model performance to be similar for regular SDMs and physiology-SDMs. However, we also show that for around half the species the physiology-SDMs substantially outperform regular SDM in the warm Levant. Moreover, for all species the uncertainty associated with the coefficients estimated from the physiology-SDMs were much lower than in the regular SDMs. Under future climate, we find that both SDMs and physiology-SDMs showed similar patterns, with species predicted to shift their distribution north-west in accordance with warming sea temperatures. However, for the physiology-SDMs predicted distributional changes are more moderate than those predicted by regular SDMs. We conclude, that while physiology-SDM predictions generally agree with the regular SDMs, incorporation of the physiological data led to less extreme range shift forecasts. The results suggest that climate-induced range shifts may be less drastic than previously predicted, and thus most species are unlikely to completely disappear with warming climate. Taken together, the findings emphasize that physiological experimental data can provide valuable supplemental information to predict range shifts of marine species

Incorporating physiology into species distribution models moderates the projected impact of warming on Mediterranean marine species

Species distribution models (SDMs) correlate species occurrences with environmental predictors, and can be used to forecast distributions under future climates. SDMs have been criticized for not explicitly including the physiological processes underlying the species response to the environment. Recently, new methods have been suggested to combine SDMs with physiological estimates of performance (physiology-SDMs). In this study, we compare SDM and physiology-SDM predictions for select marine species in the Mediterranean Sea, a region subjected to exceptionally rapid climate change. We focused on six species and created physiology-SDMs that incorporate physiological thermal performance curves from experimental data with species occurrence records. We then contrasted projections of SDMs and physiology-SDMs under future climate (year 2100) for the entire Mediterranean Sea, and particularly the ‘warm’ trailing edge in the Levant region. Across the Mediterranean, we found cross-validation model performance to be similar for regular SDMs and physiology-SDMs. However, we also show that for around half the species the physiology-SDMs substantially outperform regular SDM in the warm Levant. Moreover, for all species the uncertainty associated with the coefficients estimated from the physiology-SDMs were much lower than in the regular SDMs. Under future climate, we find that both SDMs and physiology-SDMs showed similar patterns, with species predicted to shift their distribution north-west in accordance with warming sea temperatures. However, for the physiology-SDMs predicted distributional changes are more moderate than those predicted by regular SDMs. We conclude, that while physiology-SDM predictions generally agree with the regular SDMs, incorporation of the physiological data led to less extreme range shift forecasts. The results suggest that climate-induced range shifts may be less drastic than previously predicted, and thus most species are unlikely to completely disappear with warming climate. Taken together, the findings emphasize that physiological experimental data can provide valuable supplemental information to predict range shifts of marine species

Prevenção do câncer de colo uterino

O câncer do colo uterino constitui um grave problema de saúde pública, atingindo todas as camadas sociais e regiões geoeconômicas do país. Definido como afecção progressiva, o câncer de colo uterino é caracterizado por alterações intra-epiteliais cervicais, que podem se desenvolver para um estágio invasivo em longo prazo, tendo etapas bem definidas e de lenta evolução, sendo que este tipo de câncer permite sua interrupção a partir de um diagnóstico precoce e do tratamento oportuno que poderá apresentar custos reduzidos. Assim, as medidas de prevenção são consideradas de suma importância e envolvem o rastreamento de lesões na população sintomática e assintomática, podendo ser identificado o grau das mesmas e o tratamento ser adequado. Neste estudo foi realizado uma revisão narrativa, de trabalhos vinculados a Biblioteca Virtual de Saúde, realizados no período de 2000 a 2012 com o objetivo de discorrer sobre aspectos epidemiológicos, fisiopatológicos e de prevenção do câncer de colo uterino. O PSF se torna, cada vez mais, um instrumento de estratégia no combate ao câncer do colo do útero. Os profissionais devem aproveitar todas as oportunidades de contato com as mulheres para reforçar orientações, sanar dúvidas, conhecimentos, direitos em relação a sua saúde, sendo assim, atenção especial à educação em saúde. Há ainda muitas barreiras que impedem as mulheres ao acesso a educação e promoção da saúde, principalmente quanto ao câncer de colo de útero. Este fato mostra que as campanhas de prevenção e ou detecção precoce desta doença não têm sido bem sucedidas, apesar do amplo conhecimento que este tipo de câncer continua sendo uma séria ameaça para a população brasileira

Large but uneven reduction in fish size across species in relation to changing sea temperatures

Ectotherms often attain smaller body sizes when they develop at higher temperatures. This phenomenon, known as the temperature size rule, has important consequences for global fisheries, whereby ocean warming is predicted to result in smaller fish and reduced biomass. However, the generality of this phenomenon and the mechanisms that drive it in natural populations remain unresolved. In this study we document the maximal size of 74 fish species along a steep temperature gradient in the Mediterranean Sea and find strong support for the temperature size rule. Importantly, we additionally find that size reduction in active fish species is dramatically larger than for more sedentary species. As the temperature - dependence of oxygen consumption depends on activity levels, these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that oxygen is a limiting factor shaping the temperature size rule in fishes. These results suggest that ocean warming will result in a sharp, but uneven, reduction in fish size that will cause major shifts in size-dependent interactions. Moreover, warming will have major implications for fisheries as the main species targeted for harvesting will show the most substantial declines in biomass

Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions.

17 pagesInternational audienceAimIn the context of intensifying threats of climate change on marine communities, ecological models are widely applied for conservation strategies, though polar studies remain scarce given the limited number of datasets available. Correlative (e.g. species distribution models, SDM) and mechanistic (e.g. dynamic energy budget models, DEB) modelling approaches are usually used independently in studies. Using both approaches in integrative, hybrid models could help to better estimate the species potential ecological niche, as mechanistic and correlative models complement each other very well, giving more insights into species potential response to fast-changing environmental conditions.LocationThe study focusses on the Baie du Morbihan, a silled basin located in the east of the Kerguelen Islands (sub-Antarctic).MethodsA hybrid, correlative-mechanistic model was implemented to predict the response of the endemic sea urchin Abatus cordatus (Verrill, 1876). We compared the performances of classic and integrated approaches to predict A. cordatus distribution according to two dates representing seasonal contrasts. Two integrated approaches were studied and performed by either (1) including the spatial projection of the DEB model as an input layer inside the SDM (‘integrated SDM-DEB’) or (2) using a Bayesian procedure to use DEB model outputs as priors of the SDM (‘integrated Bayesian’ approach).ResultsResults show higher performances of ‘integrated Bayesian’ approaches to evaluate A. cordatus potential ecological niche compared with ‘classic’ and ‘integrated SDM-DEB’ methods. The influence of environmental conditions on model predictions is further captured with these Bayesian procedures and better highlights the environmental influence on the species-predicted distribution. Model performance is good for the different simulations, and uncertainty in predictions is well-highlighted.Main conclusionsThe good performances of ‘integrated Bayesian’ approaches to estimate species potential ecological niche opens perspectives for future applications to a broad panel of natural examples, noteworthy for decision-making and conservation management purposes

Table S2 from Remarkable size-spectra stability in a marine system undergoing massive invasion

Relative biomass of non-indigenous species in the years 1990-1994 and 2008-2012

Figure S2 from Remarkable size-spectra stability in a marine system undergoing massive invasion

Distributions of the regression coefficients of non-indigenous species for the randomized communities

Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment

The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from 89 different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence. However, negative effects of lockdown on conservation also emerged, as confinement resulted in some park officials being unable to perform conservation, restoration and enforcement tasks, resulting in local increases in illegal activities such as hunting. Overall, there is a complex mixture of positive and negative effects of the pandemic lockdown on nature, all of which have the potential to lead to cascading responses which in turn impact wildlife and nature conservation. While the net effect of the lockdown will need to be assessed over years as data becomes available and persistent effects emerge, immediate responses were detected across the world. Thus initial qualitative and quantitative data arising from this serendipitous global quasi-experimental perturbation highlights the dual role that humans play in threatening and protecting species and ecosystems. Pathways to favorably tilt this delicate balance include reducing impacts and increasing conservation effectiveness