Recommendation to Use Exact P-values in Biomarker Discovery Research

Background: In biomarker discovery studies, markers are ranked for validation using P-values. Standard P-value calculations use normal approximations that may not be valid for small P-values and small sample sizes common in discovery research. Methods: We compared exact P-values, valid by definition, with normal and logit-normal approximations in a simulated study of 40 cases and 160 controls. The key measure of biomarker performance was sensitivity at 90% specificity. Data for 3000 uninformative markers and 30 true markers were generated randomly, with 10 replications of the simulation. We also analyzed real data on 2371 antibody array markers measured in plasma from 121 cases with ER/PR positive breast cancer and 121 controls. Results: Using the same discovery criterion, the valid exact P-values lead to discovery of 24 true and 82 false biomarkers while approximate P-values yielded 15 true and 15 false biomarkers (normal approximation) and 20 true and 86 false biomarkers (logit-normal approximation). Moreover, the estimated numbers of true markers among those discovered were substantially incorrect for approximate P-values: normal estimated 0 true markers discovered but found 15; logit-normal estimated 42 but found 20. The exact method estimated 22, close to the actual number of 24 true discoveries. With real data, exact and approximate P-values ranked candidate breast cancer biomarkers very differently. Conclusions: Exact P-values should be used because they are universally valid. Approximate P-values can lead to inappropriate biomarker selection rules and incorrect conclusions. Impact: Rigorous data analysis methodology in discovery research may improve the yield of biomarkers that validate clinically

Multitrait genetic association analysis identifies 50 new risk loci for gastro-oesophageal reflux, seven new loci for Barrett’s oesophagus and provides insights into clinical heterogeneity in reflux diagnosis

Objective: Gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD) has heterogeneous aetiology primarily attributable to its symptom-based definitions. GERD genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have shown strong genetic overlaps with established risk factors such as obesity and depression. We hypothesised that the shared genetic architecture between GERD and these risk factors can be leveraged to (1) identify new GERD and Barrett's oesophagus (BE) risk loci and (2) explore potentially heterogeneous pathways leading to GERD and oesophageal complications. Design: We applied multitrait GWAS models combining GERD (78 707 cases; 288 734 controls) and genetically correlated traits including education attainment, depression and body mass index. We also used multitrait analysis to identify BE risk loci. Top hits were replicated in 23andMe (462 753 GERD cases, 24 099 BE cases, 1 484 025 controls). We additionally dissected the GERD loci into obesity-driven and depression-driven subgroups. These subgroups were investigated to determine how they relate to tissue-specific gene expression and to risk of serious oesophageal disease (BE and/or oesophageal adenocarcinoma, EA). Results: We identified 88 loci associated with GERD, with 59 replicating in 23andMe after multiple testing corrections. Our BE analysis identified seven novel loci. Additionally we showed that only the obesity-driven GERD loci (but not the depression-driven loci) were associated with genes enriched in oesophageal tissues and successfully predicted BE/EA. Conclusion: Our multitrait model identified many novel risk loci for GERD and BE. We present strong evidence for a genetic underpinning of disease heterogeneity in GERD and show that GERD loci associated with depressive symptoms are not strong predictors of BE/EA relative to obesity-driven GERD loci

MiRNA-Related SNPs and Risk of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma and Barrett's Esophagus: Post Genome-Wide Association Analysis in the BEACON Consortium.

Incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) has increased substantially in recent decades. Multiple risk factors have been identified for EA and its precursor, Barrett's esophagus (BE), such as reflux, European ancestry, male sex, obesity, and tobacco smoking, and several germline genetic variants were recently associated with disease risk. Using data from the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON) genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 2,515 EA cases, 3,295 BE cases, and 3,207 controls, we examined single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that potentially affect the biogenesis or biological activity of microRNAs (miRNAs), small non-coding RNAs implicated in post-transcriptional gene regulation, and deregulated in many cancers, including EA. Polymorphisms in three classes of genes were examined for association with risk of EA or BE: miRNA biogenesis genes (157 SNPs, 21 genes); miRNA gene loci (234 SNPs, 210 genes); and miRNA-targeted mRNAs (177 SNPs, 158 genes). Nominal associations (P0.50), and we did not find evidence for interactions between variants analyzed and two risk factors for EA/BE (smoking and obesity). This analysis provides the most extensive assessment to date of miRNA-related SNPs in relation to risk of EA and BE. While common genetic variants within components of the miRNA biogenesis core pathway appear unlikely to modulate susceptibility to EA or BE, further studies may be warranted to examine potential associations between unassessed variants in miRNA genes and targets with disease risk.This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health [R01CA136725 to T.L.V. and D.C.W, T32CA009168 to T.L.V, and K05CA124911 to T.L.V.]. Additional funding sources for individual studies included in the BEACON GWAS, and for BEACON investigators, have been acknowledged previously (16).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from PLOS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.012861

Multitrait genetic association analysis identifies 50 new risk loci for gastro-oesophageal reflux, seven new loci for Barrett's oesophagus and provides insights into clinical heterogeneity in reflux diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE: Gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD) has heterogeneous aetiology primarily attributable to its symptom-based definitions. GERD genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have shown strong genetic overlaps with established risk factors such as obesity and depression. We hypothesised that the shared genetic architecture between GERD and these risk factors can be leveraged to (1) identify new GERD and Barrett's oesophagus (BE) risk loci and (2) explore potentially heterogeneous pathways leading to GERD and oesophageal complications. DESIGN: We applied multitrait GWAS models combining GERD (78 707 cases; 288 734 controls) and genetically correlated traits including education attainment, depression and body mass index. We also used multitrait analysis to identify BE risk loci. Top hits were replicated in 23andMe (462 753 GERD cases, 24 099 BE cases, 1 484 025 controls). We additionally dissected the GERD loci into obesity-driven and depression-driven subgroups. These subgroups were investigated to determine how they relate to tissue-specific gene expression and to risk of serious oesophageal disease (BE and/or oesophageal adenocarcinoma, EA). RESULTS: We identified 88 loci associated with GERD, with 59 replicating in 23andMe after multiple testing corrections. Our BE analysis identified seven novel loci. Additionally we showed that only the obesity-driven GERD loci (but not the depression-driven loci) were associated with genes enriched in oesophageal tissues and successfully predicted BE/EA. CONCLUSION: Our multitrait model identified many novel risk loci for GERD and BE. We present strong evidence for a genetic underpinning of disease heterogeneity in GERD and show that GERD loci associated with depressive symptoms are not strong predictors of BE/EA relative to obesity-driven GERD loci

Interactions Between Genetic Variants and Environmental Factors Affect Risk of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma and Barrett's Esophagus.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 20 susceptibility loci for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) and Barrett's esophagus (BE). However, variants in these loci account for a small fraction of cases of EA and BE. Genetic factors might interact with environmental factors to affect risk of EA and BE. We aimed to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that may modify the associations of body mass index (BMI), smoking, and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), with risks of EA and BE. METHODS: We collected data on single BMI measurements, smoking status, and symptoms of GERD from 2284 patients with EA, 3104 patients with BE, and 2182 healthy individuals (controls) participating in the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium GWAS, the UK Barrett's Esophagus Gene Study, and the UK Stomach and Oesophageal Cancer Study. We analyzed 993,501 SNPs in DNA samples of all study subjects. We used standard case-control logistic regression to test for gene-environment interactions. RESULTS: For EA, rs13429103 at chromosome 2p25.1, near the RNF144A-LOC339788 gene, showed a borderline significant interaction with smoking status (P = 2.18×10-7). Ever smoking was associated with an almost 12-fold increase in risk of EA among individuals with rs13429103-AA genotype (odds ratio=11.82; 95% CI, 4.03-34.67). Three SNPs (rs12465911, rs2341926, rs13396805) at chromosome 2q23.3, near the RND3-RBM43 gene, interacted with GERD symptoms (P = 1.70×10-7, P = 1.83×10-7, and P = 3.58×10-7, respectively) to affect risk of EA. For BE, rs491603 at chromosome 1p34.3, near the EIF2C3 gene, and rs11631094 at chromosome 15q14, at the SLC12A6 gene, interacted with BMI (P = 4.44×10-7) and pack-years of smoking history (P = 2.82×10-7), respectively. CONCLUSION: The associations of BMI, smoking, and GERD symptoms with risks of EA and BE appear to vary with SNPs at chromosomes 1, 2, and 15. Validation of these suggestive interactions is warranted.UK funding from MRC and Cancer Research U

Germline variation in inflammation-related pathways and risk of Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) incidence has risen sharply in Western countries over recent decades. Local and systemic inflammation, operating downstream of disease-associated exposures, is considered an important contributor to EA pathogenesis. Several risk factors have been identified for EA and its precursor, Barrett’s esophagus (BE), including symptomatic reflux, obesity, and smoking. The role of inherited genetic susceptibility remains an area of active investigation. To explore whether germline variation related to inflammatory processes influences susceptibility to BE/EA, we used data from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 2,515 EA cases, 3,295 BE cases, and 3,207 controls. Our analysis included 7,863 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 449 genes assigned to five pathways: cyclooxygenase (COX), cytokine signaling, oxidative stress, human leukocyte antigen, and NFκB. A principal components-based analytic framework was employed to evaluate pathway-level and gene-level associations with disease risk. We identified a significant signal for the COX pathway in relation to BE risk (P=0.0059, FDR q=0.03), and in gene-level analyses found an association with MGST1 (microsomal glutathione-S-transferase 1; P=0.0005, q=0.005). Assessment of 36 MGST1 SNPs identified 14 variants associated with elevated BE risk (q<0.05). Of these, four were subsequently confirmed (P<5.5 × 10−5) in a meta-analysis encompassing an independent set of 1,851 BE cases and 3,496 controls. Three of these SNPs (rs3852575, rs73112090, rs4149204) were associated with similar elevations in EA risk. This study provides the most comprehensive evaluation of inflammation-related germline variation in relation to risk of BE/EA, and suggests that variants in MGST1 influence disease susceptibility

A Newly Identified Susceptibility Locus near FOXP1 Modifies the Association of Gastroesophageal Reflux with Barrett's Esophagus

Important risk factors for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) and its precursor, Barrett’s esophagus (BE) include gastroesophageal reflux disease, obesity, and cigarette-smoking. Recently, genome-wide association studies have identified seven germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with risk of BE and EA. Whether these genetic susceptibility loci modify previously identified exposure-disease associations is unclear

Genome-wide association studies in oesophageal adenocarcinoma and Barrett's oesophagus: a large-scale meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Oesophageal adenocarcinoma represents one of the fastest rising cancers in high-income countries. Barrett's oesophagus is the premalignant precursor of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. However, only a few patients with Barrett's oesophagus develop adenocarcinoma, which complicates clinical management in the absence of valid predictors. Within an international consortium investigating the genetics of Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma, we aimed to identify novel genetic risk variants for the development of Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: We did a meta-analysis of all genome-wide association studies of Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma available in PubMed up to Feb 29, 2016; all patients were of European ancestry and disease was confirmed histopathologically. All participants were from four separate studies within Europe, North America, and Australia and were genotyped on high-density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays. Meta-analysis was done with a fixed-effects inverse variance-weighting approach and with a standard genome-wide significance threshold (p<5 × 10-8). We also did an association analysis after reweighting of loci with an approach that investigates annotation enrichment among genome-wide significant loci. Furthermore, the entire dataset was analysed with bioinformatics approaches-including functional annotation databases and gene-based and pathway-based methods-to identify pathophysiologically relevant cellular mechanisms. FINDINGS: Our sample comprised 6167 patients with Barrett's oesophagus and 4112 individuals with oesophageal adenocarcinoma, in addition to 17 159 representative controls from four genome-wide association studies in Europe, North America, and Australia. We identified eight new risk loci associated with either Barrett's oesophagus or oesophageal adenocarcinoma, within or near the genes CFTR (rs17451754; p=4·8 × 10-10), MSRA (rs17749155; p=5·2 × 10-10), LINC00208 and BLK (rs10108511; p=2·1 × 10-9), KHDRBS2 (rs62423175; p=3·0 × 10-9), TPPP and CEP72 (rs9918259; p=3·2 × 10-9), TMOD1 (rs7852462; p=1·5 × 10-8), SATB2 (rs139606545; p=2·0 × 10-8), and HTR3C and ABCC5 (rs9823696; p=1·6 × 10-8). The locus identified near HTR3C and ABCC5 (rs9823696) was associated specifically with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (p=1·6 × 10-8) and was independent of Barrett's oesophagus development (p=0·45). A ninth novel risk locus was identified within the gene LPA (rs12207195; posterior probability 0·925) after reweighting with significantly enriched annotations. The strongest disease pathways identified (p<10-6) belonged to muscle cell differentiation and to mesenchyme development and differentiation. INTERPRETATION: Our meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies doubled the number of known risk loci for Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma and revealed new insights into causes of these diseases. Furthermore, the specific association between oesophageal adenocarcinoma and the locus near HTR3C and ABCC5 might constitute a novel genetic marker for prediction of the transition from Barrett's oesophagus to oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Fine-mapping and functional studies of new risk loci could lead to identification of key molecules in the development of Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma, which might encourage development of advanced prevention and intervention strategies. FUNDING: US National Cancer Institute, US National Institutes of Health, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, Swedish Cancer Society, Medical Research Council UK, Cambridge NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Cambridge Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre, Else Kröner Fresenius Stiftung, Wellcome Trust, Cancer Research UK, AstraZeneca UK, University Hospitals of Leicester, University of Oxford, Australian Research Council

A comprehensive re-assessment of the association between vitamin D and cancer susceptibility using Mendelian randomization

Abstract: Previous Mendelian randomization (MR) studies on 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and cancer have typically adopted a handful of variants and found no relationship between 25(OH)D and cancer; however, issues of horizontal pleiotropy cannot be reliably addressed. Using a larger set of variants associated with 25(OH)D (74 SNPs, up from 6 previously), we perform a unified MR analysis to re-evaluate the relationship between 25(OH)D and ten cancers. Our findings are broadly consistent with previous MR studies indicating no relationship, apart from ovarian cancers (OR 0.89; 95% C.I: 0.82 to 0.96 per 1 SD change in 25(OH)D concentration) and basal cell carcinoma (OR 1.16; 95% C.I.: 1.04 to 1.28). However, after adjustment for pigmentation related variables in a multivariable MR framework, the BCC findings were attenuated. Here we report that lower 25(OH)D is unlikely to be a causal risk factor for most cancers, with our study providing more precise confidence intervals than previously possible