Consumer Surplus Estimates and the Source of Regression Error

Contrary to widely held belief, we show that the source of regression error does not matter when calculating Marshallian surplus. A misspecified demand curve, not the assumed source of regression error, leads to differences in estimates of consumer surplus.Regression Error, Marshallian Surplus, Welfare Analysis, Consumer/Household Economics, D60, C24, Q51,

Planetary Bistatic Radar

Planetary radar observations offer the potential for probing the properties of characteristics of solid bodies throughout the inner solar system and at least as far as the orbit of Saturn. In addition to the direct scientific value, precise orbital determinations can be obtained from planetary radar observations, which are in turn valuable for mission planning or spacecraft navigation and planetary defense. The next-generation Very Large Array would not have to be equipped with a transmitter to be an important asset in the world's planetary radar infrastructure. Bistatic radar, in which one antenna transmits (e.g., Arecibo or Goldstone) and another receives, are used commonly today, with the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) serving as a receiver. The improved sensitivity of the ngVLA relative to the GBT would improve the signal-to-noise ratios on many targets and increase the accessible volume specifically for asteroids. Goldstone-ngVLA bistatic observations would have the potential of rivaling the sensitivity of Arecibo, but with much wider sky access.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, To be published in the ASP Monograph Series, "Science with a Next-Generation VLA", ed. E. J. Murphy (ASP, San Francisco, CA

Advanced manufacturing development of a composite empennage component for L-1011 aircraft

This is the final report of technical work conducted during the fourth phase of a multiphase program having the objective of the design, development and flight evaluation of an advanced composite empennage component manufactured in a production environment at a cost competitive with those of its metal counterpart, and at a weight savings of at least 20 percent. The empennage component selected for this program is the vertical fin box of the L-1011 aircraft. The box structure extends from the fuselage production joint to the tip rib and includes front and rear spars. During Phase 4 of the program, production quality tooling was designed and manufactured to produce three sets of covers, ribs, spars, miscellaneous parts, and subassemblies to assemble three complete ACVF units. Recurring and nonrecurring cost data were compiled and documented in the updated producibility/design to cost plan. Nondestruct inspections, quality control tests, and quality acceptance tests were performed in accordance with the quality assurance plan and the structural integrity control plan. Records were maintained to provide traceability of material and parts throughout the manufacturing development phase. It was also determined that additional tooling would not be required to support the current and projected L-1011 production rate

PAID TO PUMP: How a tax credit could discourage conservation of the High Plains Aquifer

In 1965’s United States v. Shurbet case, an irrigator from Texas asserted his claim for a depletion tax deduction for groundwater pumped from the High Plains Aquifer. He argued that the unique conditions of the southern High Plains region - a plateau where the shallow aquifer is recharged only through precipitation at a slow rate - meant the groundwater resource would be depleted in time. The state argued that groundwater was not fundamentally an exhaustible natural deposit, but the Supreme Court concluded the tax deduction was appropriate given the “peculiar” conditions in the area. It was stated the decision was not meant to establish a precedent regarding cost depletion of groundwater. The findings of the Shurbet case were intended to be limited to the southern High Plains region. However, in a 1980 lawsuit against the IRS, the Gigot brothers of Kansas sought to expand the deduction to allow depletion of the aquifer beneath their 30,000 acre farm in Kansas. The case was settled in the district court with a ruling allowing the brothers’ deductions to continue, thereby extending the Shurbet decision to include all landowners extracting from the approximately 174,000 square miles of land overlying the High Plains Aquifer. Currently, the estimated value of the credit is highest in parts of northern Texas, eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and south central Nebraska

The influence of global self-heating on the Yarkovsky and YORP effects

In addition to collisions and gravitational forces, there is a growing amount of evidence that photon recoil forces from the asymmetric reflection and thermal re-radiation of absorbed sunlight are primary mechanisms that are fundamental to the physical and dynamical evolution of small asteroids. The Yarkovsky effect causes orbital drift, and the Yarkovsky–O’Keefe–Radzievskii–Paddack (YORP) effect causes changes in the rotation rate and pole orientation. We present an adaptation of the Advanced Thermophysical Model to simultaneously predict the Yarkovsky and YORP effects in the presence of global self-heating that occurs within the large concavities of irregularly shaped asteroids, which has been neglected or dismissed in all previous models. It is also combined with rough surface thermal-infrared beaming effects, which have been previously shown to enhance the Yarkovsky orbital drift and dampen on average the YORP rotational acceleration by orders of several tens of per cent. Tests on all published concave shape models of near-Earth asteroids, and also on 100 Gaussian random spheres, show that the Yarkovsky effect is sensitive to shadowing and global self-heating effects at the few per cent level or less. For simplicity, Yarkovsky models can neglect these effects if the level of accuracy desired is of this order. Unlike the Yarkovsky effect, the YORP effect can be very sensitive to shadowing and global self-heating effects. Its sensitivity increases with decreasing relative strength of the YORP rotational acceleration, and does not appear to depend greatly on the degree of asteroid concavity. Global self-heating tends to produce a vertical offset in an asteroid's YORP-rotational-acceleration versus obliquity curve which is in opposite direction to that produced by shadowing effects. It also ensures that at least one critical obliquity angle exists at which zero YORP rotational acceleration occurs. Global self-heating must be included for accurate predictions of the YORP effect if an asteroid exhibits a large shadowing effect. If global self-heating effects are not included, then it is found in ~75 per cent of cases that better predictions are produced when shadowing is also not included. Furthermore, global self-heating has implications for reducing the sensitivity of the YORP effect predictions to detailed variations in an asteroid's shape model

Physical characterisation of near-Earth asteroid (1620) Geographos: reconciling radar and thermal-infrared observations

Context. The Yarkovsky (orbital drift) and YORP (spin state change) effects play important roles in the dynamical and physical evolution of asteroids. Thermophysical modelling of these observed effects, and of thermal-infrared observations, allows a detailed physical characterisation of an individual asteroid to be performed. Aims. We perform a detailed physical characterisation of near-Earth asteroid (1620) Geographos, a potential meteor stream source and former spacecraft target, using the same techniques as previously used for (1862) Apollo. Methods. We use the advanced thermophysical model (ATPM) on published light-curve, radar, and thermal-infrared observations to constrain the thermophysical properties of Geographos. The derived properties are used to make detailed predictions of the Yarkovsky orbital drift and YORP rotational acceleration, which are then compared against published measurements to determine Geographos’s bulk density. Results. We find that Geographos has a thermal inertia of 340-100+140 J m-2 k-1s-1/2, a roughness fraction of ≥50%, and a bulk density of 2100-450+550 kg m-3 when using the light-curve-derived shape model with the radar-derived maximum equatorial diameter of 5.04 ± 0.07 km. It is also found that the radar observations had overestimated the z-axis in Geographos’s shape model because of their near-equatorial view. This results in a poor fit to the thermal-infrared observations if its effective diameter is kept fixed in the model fitting. Conclusions. The thermal inertia derived for Geographos is slightly higher than the typical values for a near-Earth asteroid of its size, and its derived bulk density suggests a rubble-pile interior structure. Large uncertainties in shape model z-axes are likely to explain why radar and thermal-infrared observations sometimes give inconsistent diameter determinations for other asteroids

Search for Narrow Diphoton Resonances and for gamma-gamma+W/Z Signatures in p\bar p Collisions at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV

We present results of searches for diphoton resonances produced both inclusively and also in association with a vector boson (W or Z) using 100 pb^{-1} of p\bar p collisions using the CDF detector. We set upper limits on the product of cross section times branching ratio for both p\bar p\to\gamma\gamma + X and p\bar p\to\gamma\gamma + W/Z. Comparing the inclusive production to the expectations from heavy sgoldstinos we derive limits on the supersymmetry-breaking scale sqrt{F} in the TeV range, depending on the sgoldstino mass and the choice of other parameters. Also, using a NLO prediction for the associated production of a Higgs boson with a W or Z boson, we set an upper limit on the branching ratio for H\to\gamma\gamma. Finally, we set a lower limit on the mass of a `bosophilic' Higgs boson (e.g. one which couples only to \gamma, W, and Z$ bosons with standard model couplings) of 82 GeV/c^2 at 95% confidence level.Comment: 30 pages, 11 figure

Measurement of Rapidity Distribution for High Mass Drell-Yan ee Pairs at CDF

We report on the first measurement of the rapidity distribution dsigma/dy over nearly the entire kinematic region of rapidity for e^+e^- pairs in the Z-boson region of 66116 GeV/c^2. The data sample consists of 108 pb^{-1} of ppbar collisions at \sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV taken by the Collider Detector at Fermilab during 1992--1995. The total cross section in the $Z$-boson region is measured to be 252 +- 11 pb. The measured total cross section and d\sigma/dy are compared with quantum chromodynamics calculations in leading and higher orders.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Measurement of the Decay Amplitudes of B0 --> J/psi K* and B0s --> J/psi phi Decays

A full angular analysis has been performed for the pseudo-scalar to vector-vector decays, B0 --> J/psi K* and B_s --> J/psi phi, to determine the amplitudes for decays with parity-even longitudinal and transverse polarization and parity-odd transverse polarization. The measurements are based on 190 B0 candidates and 40 B_s candidates collected from a data set corresponding to 89 inverse pb of pbarp collisions at root(s) = 1.8 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron. In both decays the decay amplitude for longitudinal polarization dominates and the parity-odd amplitude is found to be small.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl