Improved model identification for non-linear systems using a random subsampling and multifold modelling (RSMM) approach

In non-linear system identification, the available observed data are conventionally partitioned into two parts: the training data that are used for model identification and the test data that are used for model performance testing. This sort of 'hold-out' or 'split-sample' data partitioning method is convenient and the associated model identification procedure is in general easy to implement. The resultant model obtained from such a once-partitioned single training dataset, however, may occasionally lack robustness and generalisation to represent future unseen data, because the performance of the identified model may be highly dependent on how the data partition is made. To overcome the drawback of the hold-out data partitioning method, this study presents a new random subsampling and multifold modelling (RSMM) approach to produce less biased or preferably unbiased models. The basic idea and the associated procedure are as follows. First, generate K training datasets (and also K validation datasets), using a K-fold random subsampling method. Secondly, detect significant model terms and identify a common model structure that fits all the K datasets using a new proposed common model selection approach, called the multiple orthogonal search algorithm. Finally, estimate and refine the model parameters for the identified common-structured model using a multifold parameter estimation method. The proposed method can produce robust models with better generalisation performance

Interactive effects of inbreeding and endocrine disruption on reproduction in a model laboratory fish

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Inbreeding depression is expected to be more severe in stressful environments. However, the extent to which inbreeding affects the vulnerability of populations to environmental stressors, such as chemical exposure, remains unresolved. Here we report on the combined impacts of inbreeding and exposure to an endocrine disrupting chemical (the fungicide clotrimazole) on zebrafish (Danio rerio). We show that whilst inbreeding can negatively affect reproductive traits, not all traits are affected equally. Inbreeding depression frequently only became apparent when fish were additionally stressed by chemical exposure. Embryo viability was significantly reduced in inbred exposed fish and there was a tendency for inbred males to sire fewer offspring when in direct competition with outbred individuals. Levels of plasma 11-ketotestosterone, a key male sex hormone, showed substantial inbreeding depression that was unaffected by addition of the fungicide. In contrast, there was no effect of inbreeding or clotrimazole exposure on egg production. Overall, our data provide evidence that stress may amplify the effects of inbreeding on key reproductive traits, particularly those associated with male fitness. This may have important implications when considering the consequences of exposure to chemical pollutants on the fitness of wild populations.Thanks to NERC's Post Genomics & Proteomics Programme NE/F0077871/1 and AstraZeneca's Safety, Health and Environment Research Programme for funding this work. We thank Alexander Scott (11-ketotestosterone radioimmunoassay) at the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Jan Shears and Luanne Wilkes at University of Exeter, Gareth Readman, Vicki Cammack, Kate Hurd and Yohanna Glennon at Brixham Environmental Laboratory for their assistance

Do You Remember Me? Betty the Conversational Agent

In this paper we introduce a conversational agent reminiscence companion system called Betty. Betty increases subjective wellbeing (SWB) by engaging with people and by collecting information during one-to-one conversations, then using this data in further personalised conversations with each individual. Results have shown a positive effect on SWB, and improvement in normal age-associated memory loss (NM) was evident through increased everyday interaction with Bett

Bioavailability and kidney responses to Diclofenac in the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas)

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Diclofenac is one of the most widely prescribed nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs worldwide. It is frequently detected in surface waters; however, whether this pharmaceutical poses a risk to aquatic organisms is debated. Here we quantified the uptake of diclofenac by the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) following aqueous exposure (0.2-25.0 μg L(-1)) for 21 days, and evaluated the tissue and biomolecular responses in the kidney. Diclofenac accumulated in a concentration- and time-dependent manner in the plasma of exposed fish. The highest plasma concentration observed (for fish exposed to 25 μg L(-1) diclofenac) was within the therapeutic range for humans. There was a strong positive correlation between exposure concentration and the number of developing nephrons observed in the posterior kidney. Diclofenac was not found to modulate the expression of genes in the kidney associated with its primary mode of action in mammals (prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthases) but modulated genes associated with kidney repair and regeneration. There were no significant adverse effects following 21 days exposure to concentrations typical of surface waters. The combination of diclofenac's uptake potential, effects on kidney nephrons and relatively small safety margin for some surface waters may warrant a longer term chronic health effects analysis for diclofenac in fish.This work was funded by Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP): Use of ‘omic’ technologies in the environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals (KTP007650) and AstraZeneca’s Safety, Health and Environment (SHE) Research Programme. We thank Lina Gunnarsson, Matt Winter and James Cresswell (Exeter University), and former members of the Brixham Environmental Laboratory for their advice and assistance. Authors declare no competing financial interest

A comprehensive characterization of chronic norovirus infection in immunodeficient hosts.

Letter to the edito

Development and Validation of the Behavioral Tendencies Questionnaire

At a fundamental level, taxonomy of behavior and behavioral tendencies can be described in terms of approach, avoid, or equivocate (i.e., neither approach nor avoid). While there are numerous theories of personality, temperament, and character, few seem to take advantage of parsimonious taxonomy. The present study sought to implement this taxonomy by creating a questionnaire based on a categorization of behavioral temperaments/tendencies first identified in Buddhist accounts over fifteen hundred years ago. Items were developed using historical and contemporary texts of the behavioral temperaments, described as “Greedy/Faithful”, “Aversive/Discerning”, and “Deluded/Speculative”. To both maintain this categorical typology and benefit from the advantageous properties of forced-choice response format (e.g., reduction of response biases), binary pairwise preferences for items were modeled using Latent Class Analysis (LCA). One sample (n1 = 394) was used to estimate the item parameters, and the second sample (n2 = 504) was used to classify the participants using the established parameters and cross-validate the classification against multiple other measures. The cross-validated measure exhibited good nomothetic span (construct-consistent relationships with related measures) that seemed to corroborate the ideas present in the original Buddhist source documents. The final 13-block questionnaire created from the best performing items (the Behavioral Tendencies Questionnaire or BTQ) is a psychometrically valid questionnaire that is historically consistent, based in behavioral tendencies, and promises practical and clinical utility particularly in settings that teach and study meditation practices such as Mindfulness Based Stress Reduction (MBSR)

Systematic Global Analysis of Genes Encoding Protein Phosphatases in Aspergillus fumigatus.

Aspergillus fumigatus is a fungal pathogen that causes several invasive and noninvasive diseases named aspergillosis. This disease is generally regarded as multifactorial, considering that several pathogenicity determinants are present during the establishment of this illness. It is necessary to obtain an increased knowledge of how, and which, A. fumigatus signal transduction pathways are engaged in the regulation of these processes. Protein phosphatases are essential to several signal transduction pathways. We identified 32 phosphatase catalytic subunit-encoding genes in A. fumigatus, of which we were able to construct 24 viable deletion mutants. The role of nine phosphatase mutants in the HOG (high osmolarity glycerol response) pathway was evaluated by measuring phosphorylation of the p38 MAPK (SakA) and expression of osmo-dependent genes. We were also able to identify 11 phosphatases involved in iron assimilation, six that are related to gliotoxin resistance, and three implicated in gliotoxin production. These results present the creation of a fundamental resource for the study of signaling in A. fumigatus and its implications in the regulation of pathogenicity determinants and virulence in this important pathogen

How does ethical leadership trickle down? Test of an integrative dual-process model

Although the trickle-down effect of ethical leadership has been documented in the literature, its underlying mechanism still remains largely unclear. To address this gap, we develop a cross-level dual-process model to explain how the effect occurs. Drawing on social learning theory, we hypothesize that the ethical leadership of high-level managers could cascade to middle-level supervisors via its impact on middle-level supervisors’ two ethical expectations. Using a sample of 69 middle-level supervisors and 381 subordinates across 69 sub-branches from a large banking firm in China, we found that middle-level supervisors’ ethical efficacy expectation and unethical behavior–punishment expectation (as one form of ethical outcome expectations) accounted for the trickle-down effect. The explanatory role of middle-level supervisors’ ethical behavior–reward expectation (as the other form of ethical outcome expectations), however, was not supported. The theoretical and practical implications are discussed