A direct analysis of flood interval probability using approximately 100-year stream flow datasets

Series of observed flood intervals, defined as the time intervals between successive flood peaks over a threshold, were extracted directly from eleven approximately 100-year streamflow datasets from Queensland, Australia. A range of discharge thresholds were analysed that correspond to approximately 3.7 months to 6.3 year return periods. Flood interval histograms at South East Queensland gauges were consistently unimodal whereas those of the North and Central Queensland sites were often multimodal. The exponential probability distribution (pd) is often used to describe interval exceedance probabilities, but fitting utilizing the Anderson Darling statistic found little evidence that it is the most suitable. The fatigue life pd dominated sub-year return periods (<1 year), often transitioning to a log Pearson 3 pd at above-year return periods. Fatigue life pd is used in analysis of the life time to structural failure when a threshold is exceeded and this paper demonstrates its relevance also to the elapsed time between above-threshold floods. At most sites, the interval medians were substantially less than the means for sub-year return periods. Statistically the median is a better measure of central tendency of skewed distributions but the mean is generally used in practice to describe the classical concept of flood return period

Relating branes and matrices

We construct a general map between a Dp-brane with magnetic flux and a matrix configuration of D0-branes, by showing how one can rewrite the boundary state of the Dp-brane in terms of its D0-brane constituents. This map gives a simple prescription for constructing the matrices of fuzzy spaces corresponding to branes of arbitrary shape and topology. Since we explicitly identify the D0-brane degrees of freedom on the brane, we also derive the D0-brane charge of the brane in a very direct way including the A-genus term. As a check on our formalism, we use our map to derive the abelian-Born-Infeld equations of motion from the action of the D0-brane matrices.Comment: 28 pages, Late

Dualities in Quantum Hall System and Noncommutative Chern-Simons Theory

We discuss different dualities of QHE in the framework of the noncommutative Chern-Simons theory. First, we consider the Morita or T-duality transformation on the torus which maps the abelian noncommutative CS description of QHE on the torus into the nonabelian commutative description on the dual torus. It is argued that the Ruijsenaars integrable many-body system provides the description of the QHE with finite amount of electrons on the torus. The new IIB brane picture for the QHE is suggested and applied to Jain and generalized hierarchies. This picture naturally links 2d $\sigma$-model and 3d CS description of the QHE. All duality transformations are identified in the brane setup and can be related with the mirror symmetry and S duality. We suggest a brane interpretation of the plateu transition in IQHE in which a critical point is naturally described by $SL(2,R)$ WZW model.Comment: 31 pages, 4 figure

Border crossings in the African travel narratives of Ibn Battuta, Richard Burton and Paul Theroux

This article compares the representation of African borders in the 14th-century travelogue of Ibn Battuta, the 19th-century travel narrative of Richard Burton and the 21st-century travel writing of Paul Theroux. It examines the mutually constitutive relationship between conceptions of literal territorial boundaries and the figurative boundaries of the subject that ventures across borders in Africa. The border is seen as a liminal zone which paradoxically separates and joins spaces. Accounts of border crossings in travel writing from different periods suggest the historicity and cultural specificity of conceptions of geographical borders, and the way they index the “boundaries” of the subjects who cross them. Tracing the transformations in these conceptions of literal and metaphorical borders allows one to chart the emergence of the dominant contemporary idea of “Africa” as the inscrutable, savage continent

Compositional analysis of the associations between 24-h movement behaviours and cardio-metabolic risk factors in overweight and obese adults with pre-diabetes from the PREVIEW study : cross-sectional baseline analysis

Background Physical activity, sedentary time and sleep have been shown to be associated with cardio-metabolic health. However, these associations are typically studied in isolation or without accounting for the effect of all movement behaviours and the constrained nature of data that comprise a finite whole such as a 24 h day. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between the composition of daily movement behaviours (including sleep, sedentary time (ST), light intensity physical activity (LIPA) and moderate-to-vigorous activity (MVPA)) and cardio-metabolic health, in a cross-sectional analysis of adults with pre-diabetes. Further, we quantified the predicted differences following reallocation of time between behaviours. Methods Accelerometers were used to quantify daily movement behaviours in 1462 adults from eight countries with a body mass index (BMI) >= 25 kg center dot m(- 2), impaired fasting glucose (IFG; 5.6-6.9 mmol center dot l(- 1)) and/or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT; 7.8-11.0 mmol center dot l(- 1) 2 h following oral glucose tolerance test, OGTT). Compositional isotemporal substitution was used to estimate the association of reallocating time between behaviours. Results Replacing MVPA with any other behaviour around the mean composition was associated with a poorer cardio-metabolic risk profile. Conversely, when MVPA was increased, the relationships with cardiometabolic risk markers was favourable but with smaller predicted changes than when MVPA was replaced. Further, substituting ST with LIPA predicted improvements in cardio-metabolic risk markers, most notably insulin and HOMA-IR. Conclusions This is the first study to use compositional analysis of the 24 h movement composition in adults with overweight/obesity and pre-diabetes. These findings build on previous literature that suggest replacing ST with LIPA may produce metabolic benefits that contribute to the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, the asymmetry in the predicted change in risk markers following the reallocation of time to/from MVPA highlights the importance of maintaining existing levels of MVPA.Peer reviewe

Dose-Dependent Associations of Dietary Glycemic Index, Glycemic Load, and Fiber With 3-Year Weight Loss Maintenance and Glycemic Status in a High-Risk Population : A Secondary Analysis of the Diabetes Prevention Study PREVIEW

OBJECTIVE To examine longitudinal and dose-dependent associations of dietary glycemic index (GI), glycemic load (GL), and fiber with body weight and glycemic status during 3-year weight loss maintenance (WLM) in adults at high risk of type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In this secondary analysis we used pooled data from the PREVention of diabetes through lifestyle Intervention and population studies in Europe and around the World (PREVIEW) randomized controlled trial, which was designed to test the effects of four diet and physical activity interventions. A total of 1,279 participants with overweight or obesity (age 25-70 years and BMI >= 25 kg . m(-2)) and prediabetes at baseline were included. We used multiadjusted linear mixed models with repeated measurements to assess longitudinal and dose-dependent associations by merging the participants into one group and dividing them into GI, GL, and fiber tertiles, respectively. RESULTS In the available-case analysis, each 10-unit increment in GI was associated with a greater regain of weight (0.46 kg . year(-1); 95% CI 0.23, 0.68; P < 0.001) and increase in HbA(1c). Each 20-unit increment in GL was associated with a greater regain of weight (0.49 kg . year(-1); 0.24, 0.75; P < 0.001) and increase in HbA(1c). The associations of GI and GL with HbA(1c) were independent of weight change. Compared with those in the lowest tertiles, participants in the highest GI and GL tertiles had significantly greater weight regain and increases in HbA(1c). Fiber was inversely associated with increases in waist circumference, but the associations with weight regain and glycemic status did not remain robust in different analyses. CONCLUSIONS Dietary GI and GL were positively associated with weight regain and deteriorating glycemic status. Stronger evidence on the role of fiber is needed.Peer reviewe

Compositional analysis of the associations between 24-h movement behaviours and cardio-metabolic risk factors in overweight and obese adults with pre-diabetes from the PREVIEW study: cross-sectional baseline analysis

Background: Physical activity, sedentary time and sleep have been shown to be associated with cardio-metabolic health. However, these associations are typically studied in isolation or without accounting for the effect of all movement behaviours and the constrained nature of data that comprise a finite whole such as a 24 h day. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between the composition of daily movement behaviours (including sleep, sedentary time (ST), light intensity physical activity (LIPA) and moderate-to-vigorous activity (MVPA)) and cardio-metabolic health, in a cross-sectional analysis of adults with pre-diabetes. Further, we quantified the predicted differences following reallocation of time between behaviours. Methods: Accelerometers were used to quantify daily movement behaviours in 1462 adults from eight countries with a body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg·m− 2 , impaired fasting glucose (IFG; 5.6–6.9 mmol·l − 1 ) and/or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT; 7.8–11.0 mmol•l − 1 2 h following oral glucose tolerance test, OGTT). Compositional isotemporal substitution was used to estimate the association of reallocating time between behaviours. Results: Replacing MVPA with any other behaviour around the mean composition was associated with a poorer cardio-metabolic risk profile. Conversely, when MVPA was increased, the relationships with cardiometabolic risk markers was favourable but with smaller predicted changes than when MVPA was replaced. Further, substituting ST with LIPA predicted improvements in cardio-metabolic risk markers, most notably insulin and HOMA-IR. Conclusions: This is the first study to use compositional analysis of the 24 h movement composition in adults with overweight/obesity and pre-diabetes. These findings build on previous literature that suggest replacing ST with LIPA may produce metabolic benefits that contribute to the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, the asymmetry in the predicted change in risk markers following the reallocation of time to/from MVPA highlights the importance of maintaining existing levels of MVPA. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01777893)

Current knowledge, status and future for plant and fungal diversity in Great Britain and the UK Overseas Territories

Societal Impact Statement We rely on plants and fungi for most aspects of our lives. Yet plants and fungi are under threat, and we risk losing species before we know their identity, roles, and potential uses. Knowing names, distributions, and threats are first steps toward effective conservation action. Accessible products like field guides and online resources engage society, harnessing collective support for conservation. Here, we review current knowledge of the plants and fungi of the UK and UK Overseas Territories, highlighting gaps to help direct future research efforts toward conserving these vital elements of biodiversity. Summary This review summarizes current knowledge of the status and threats to the plants and fungi of Great Britain and the UK Overseas Territories (UKOTs). Although the body of knowledge is considerable, the distribution of information varies substantially, and we highlight knowledge gaps. The UK vascular flora is the most well studied and we have a relatively clear picture of its 9,001 native and alien taxa. We have seedbanked 72% of the native and archaeophyte angiosperm taxa and 78% of threatened taxa. Knowledge of the UKOTs flora varies across territories and we report a UKOTs flora comprising 4,093 native and alien taxa. We have conserved 27% of the native flora and 51% of the threatened vascular plants in Kew's Millennium Seed Bank, UK. We need a better understanding of the conservation status of plants in the wild, and progress toward completion or updating national red lists varies. Site‐based protection of key plant assemblages is outlined, and progress in identifying Important Plant Areas analyzed. Knowledge of the non‐vascular flora, especially seaweeds remains patchy, particularly in many UKOTs. The biggest gaps overall are in fungi, particularly non‐lichenized fungi. Considerable investment is needed to fill these knowledge gaps and instigate effective conservation strategies

The PREVIEW intervention study : Results from a 3-year randomized 2 x 2 factorial multinational trial investigating the role of protein, glycaemic index and physical activity for prevention of type 2 diabetes

Aim To compare the impact of two long-term weight-maintenance diets, a high protein (HP) and low glycaemic index (GI) diet versus a moderate protein (MP) and moderate GI diet, combined with either high intensity (HI) or moderate intensity physical activity (PA), on the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) after rapid weight loss. Materials and Methods A 3-year multicentre randomized trial in eight countries using a 2 x 2 diet-by-PA factorial design was conducted. Eight-week weight reduction was followed by a 3-year randomized weight-maintenance phase. In total, 2326 adults (age 25-70 years, body mass index >= 25 kg/m(2)) with prediabetes were enrolled. The primary endpoint was 3-year incidence of T2D analysed by diet treatment. Secondary outcomes included glucose, insulin, HbA1c and body weight. Results The total number of T2D cases was 62 and the cumulative incidence rate was 3.1%, with no significant differences between the two diets, PA or their combination. T2D incidence was similar across intervention centres, irrespective of attrition. Significantly fewer participants achieved normoglycaemia in the HP compared with the MP group (P <.0001). At 3 years, normoglycaemia was lowest in HP-HI (11.9%) compared with the other three groups (20.0%-21.0%, P <.05). There were no group differences in body weight change (-11% after 8-week weight reduction; -5% after 3-year weight maintenance) or in other secondary outcomes. Conclusions Three-year incidence of T2D was much lower than predicted and did not differ between diets, PA or their combination. Maintaining the target intakes of protein and GI over 3 years was difficult, but the overall protocol combining weight loss, healthy eating and PA was successful in markedly reducing the risk of T2D. This is an important clinically relevant outcome.Peer reviewe

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy