Attribution of irreversible loss to anthropogenic climate change

The Paris Agreement (2015) under the UNFCCC has anchored loss and damage in a separate article which specifies that understanding and support should be enhanced in areas addressing loss and damage such as early warning, preparedness, insurance and resilience. Irreversible loss is a special category under loss and damage but there is still missing clarity over what irreversible loss actually includes. Many negative impacts of climate change may be handled or mitigated by existing risk management, reduction and absorption approaches. Irreversible loss, however, is thought to be insufficiently addressed by risk management. Therefore, countries potentially or actually affected by irreversible loss are calling for other measures such as compensation, which however is highly contested in international climate policy. In Paris (2015) a decision was adopted that loss and damage as defined in the respective article of the agreement does not involve compensation and liability. Nevertheless, it is likely that some sort of mechanism will eventually need to come into play for irreversible loss due to anthropogenic climate change, which might involve compensation, other forms of non-monetary reparation, or transformation. Furthermore, climate litigation has increasingly been attempted to address negative effects of climate change. In this context, attribution is important to understand the drivers of change, what counts as irreversible loss due to climate change, and, possibly, who or what is responsible. Here we approach this issue by applying a detection and attribution perspective on irreversible loss. We first analyze detected climate change impacts as assessed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. We distinguish between irreversible loss in physical, biological and human systems, and accordingly identify the following candidates of irreversible loss in these systems: loss of glaciers and ice sheets, loss of subsurface ice (permafrost) and related loss of lake systems; loss of land area due to coastal and hillslope erosion and sea level change; loss of plant and animal species, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity; loss of human lives, homelands, and cultural identity. Attribution to anthropogenic climate change is analyzed based on recent progress following from the IPCC AR5. Generally, high confidence in attributing irreversible loss to anthropogenic climate change is found in physical systems and more specifically in cryosphere environments, both in mountain and polar regions. Detected loss in terrestrial ecosystems has typically low confidence in attribution whereas loss in some ocean ecosystems (corals) has high confidence. Impacts in human systems that may be classified as irreversible loss are of low confidence in terms of attribution except for the Arctic where higher confidence for a relation with anthropogenic emissions was found. Our analysis suggests that scientific progress in detection and attribution is now at a level that would likely allow policy, or courts, to define mechanisms, or take decisions, as related to irreversible loss in many cryosphere systems. On the other hand, policy may need to consider that at least in the near future it will be difficult to establish clear tracks between irreversible loss in most human systems and anthropogenic climate change, a domain, which however is at the forefront of discussions. We end our discussion with setting out ideas for further clarification of different categories of irreversible loss, including in human systems, and the role of attribution in any policy or legal mechanism in order to help in the development of just and sensible solutions

Ozone depletion due to dust release of iodine in the free troposphere

Iodine is an atmospheric trace element emitted from oceans that efficiently destroys ozone (O3). Low O3 in airborne dust layers is frequently observed but poorly understood. We show that dust is a source of gas-phase iodine, indicated by aircraft observations of iodine monoxide (IO) radicals inside lofted dust layers from the Atacama and Sechura Deserts that are up to a factor of 10 enhanced over background. Gas-phase iodine photochemistry, commensurate with observed IO, is needed to explain the low O3 inside these dust layers (below 15 ppbv; up to 75% depleted). The added dust iodine can explain decreases in O3 of 8% regionally and affects surface air quality. Our data suggest that iodate reduction to form volatile iodine species is a missing process in the geochemical iodine cycle and presents an unrecognized aeolian source of iodine. Atmospheric iodine has tripled since 1950 and affects ozone layer recovery and particle formation.Fil: Koenig, Theodore K.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Volkamer, Rainer. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Apel, Eric C.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados UnidosFil: Bresch, James F.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados UnidosFil: Cuevas, Carlos A.. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Instituto de Química Física; EspañaFil: Dix, Barbara. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Eloranta, Edwin W.. University of Wisconsin; Estados UnidosFil: Fernandez, Rafael Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Básicas. - Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Básicas; ArgentinaFil: Hall, Samuel R.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados UnidosFil: Hornbrook, Rebecca S.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados UnidosFil: Pierce, R. Bradley. National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service; Estados UnidosFil: Reeves, J. Michael. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados UnidosFil: Saiz López, Alfonso. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Instituto de Química Física; EspañaFil: Ullmann, Kirk. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unido

A pervasive role for biomass burning in tropical high ozone/low water structures.

Air parcels with mixing ratios of high O3 and low H2O (HOLW) are common features in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) mid-troposphere (300-700 hPa). Here, using data collected during aircraft sampling of the TWP in winter 2014, we find strong, positive correlations of O3 with multiple biomass burning tracers in these HOLW structures. Ozone levels in these structures are about a factor of three larger than background. Models, satellite data and aircraft observations are used to show fires in tropical Africa and Southeast Asia are the dominant source of high O3 and that low H2O results from large-scale descent within the tropical troposphere. Previous explanations that attribute HOLW structures to transport from the stratosphere or mid-latitude troposphere are inconsistent with our observations. This study suggest a larger role for biomass burning in the radiative forcing of climate in the remote TWP than is commonly appreciated.We thank L. Pan for coordinating the CONTRAST flights and her constructive criticism of an early version of the manuscript; S. Schauffler, V. Donets and R. Lueb for collecting and analysing AWAS samples; T. Robinson and O. Shieh for providing meteorology forecasts in the field; and the pilots and crews of the CAST BAe-146 and CONTRAST Gulfstream V aircrafts for their dedication and professionalism. CAST was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council; CONTRAST was funded by the National Science Foundation. Research at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, is performed under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). A number of the US-based investigators also benefitted from the support of NASA as well as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The views, opinions, and findings contained in this report are those of the author(s) and should not be construed as an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or US Government position, policy or decision. We would like to acknowledge high-performance computing support from Yellowstone (ark:/85065/d7wd3xhc) provided by NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Laboratory. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1026

The social and scientific values that shape national climate scenarios: a comparison of the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK

This paper seeks to understand why climate information is produced differently from country to country. To do this, we critically examined and compared the social and scientific values that shaped the production of three national climate scenarios in the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK. A comparative analysis of documentary materials and expert interviews linked to the climate scenarios was performed. Our findings reveal a new typology of use-inspired research in climate science for decision-making: (i) innovators, where the advancement of science is the main objective; (ii) consolidators, where knowledge exchanges and networks are prioritised; and (iii) collaborators, where the needs of users are put first and foremost. These different values over what constitutes ‘good’ science for decision-making are mirrored in the way users were involved in the production process: (i) elicitation, where scientists have privileged decision-making power; (ii) representation, where multiple organisations mediate on behalf of individual users; and (iii) participation, where a multitude of users interact with scientists in an equal partnership. These differences help explain why climate knowledge gains its credibility and legitimacy differently even when the information itself might not be judged as salient and usable. If the push to deliberately co-produce climate knowledge is not sensitive to the national civic epistemology at play in each country, scientist–user interactions may fail to deliver more ‘usable’ climate information

Cell-Based Sensor System Using L6 Cells for Broad Band Continuous Pollutant Monitoring in Aquatic Environments

Pollution of drinking water sources represents a continuously emerging problem in global environmental protection. Novel techniques for real-time monitoring of water quality, capable of the detection of unanticipated toxic and bioactive substances, are urgently needed. In this study, the applicability of a cell-based sensor system using selected eukaryotic cell lines for the detection of aquatic pollutants is shown. Readout parameters of the cells were the acidification (metabolism), oxygen consumption (respiration) and impedance (morphology) of the cells. A variety of potential cytotoxic classes of substances (heavy metals, pharmaceuticals, neurotoxins, waste water) was tested with monolayers of L6 cells (rat myoblasts). The cytotoxicity or cellular effects induced by inorganic ions (Ni2+ and Cu2+) can be detected with the metabolic parameters acidification and respiration down to 0.5 mg/L, whereas the detection limit for other substances like nicotine and acetaminophen are rather high, in the range of 0.1 mg/L and 100 mg/L. In a close to application model a real waste water sample shows detectable signals, indicating the existence of cytotoxic substances. The results support the paradigm change from single substance detection to the monitoring of overall toxicity

An Observationally Constrained Evaluation of the Oxidative Capacity in the Tropical Western Pacific Troposphere

Hydroxyl radical (OH) is the main daytime oxidant in the troposphere and determines the atmospheric lifetimes of many compounds. We use aircraft measurements of O3, H2O, NO, and other species from the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) field campaign, which occurred in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) during January–February 2014, to constrain a photochemical box model and estimate concentrations of OH throughout the troposphere. We find that tropospheric column OH (OHCOL) inferred from CONTRAST observations is 12 to 40% higher than found in chemical transport models (CTMs), including CAM-chem-SD run with 2014 meteorology as well as eight models that participated in POLMIP (2008 meteorology). Part of this discrepancy is due to a clear-sky sampling bias that affects CONTRAST observations; accounting for this bias and also for a small difference in chemical mechanism results in our empirically based value of OHCOL being 0 to 20% larger than found within global models. While these global models simulate observed O3 reasonably well, they underestimate NOx (NO + NO2) by a factor of two, resulting in OHCOL ~30% lower than box model simulations constrained by observed NO. Underestimations by CTMs of observed CH3CHO throughout the troposphere and of HCHO in the upper troposphere further contribute to differences between our constrained estimates of OH and those calculated by CTMs. Finally, our calculations do not support the prior suggestion of the existence of a tropospheric OH minimum in the TWP, because during January–February 2014 observed levels of O3 and NO were considerably larger than previously reported values in the TWP

Fractures in myelomeningocele

BACKGROUND: In patients with myelomeningocele (MMC), a high number of fractures occur in the paralyzed extremities, affecting mobility and independence. The aims of this retrospective cross-sectional study are to determine the frequency of fractures in our patient cohort and to identify trends and risk factors relevant for such fractures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between March 1988 and June 2005, 862 patients with MMC were treated at our hospital. The medical records, surgery reports, and X-rays from these patients were evaluated. RESULTS: During the study period, 11% of the patients (n = 92) suffered one or more fractures. Risk analysis showed that patients with MMC and thoracic-level paralysis had a sixfold higher risk of fracture compared with those with sacral-level paralysis. Femoral-neck z-scores measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) differed significantly according to the level of neurological impairment, with lower z-scores in children with a higher level of lesion. Furthermore, the rate of epiphyseal separation increased noticeably after cast immobilization. Mainly patients who could walk relatively well were affected. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with thoracic-level paralysis represent a group with high fracture risk. According to these results, fracture and epiphyseal injury in patients with MMC should be treated by plaster immobilization. The duration of immobilization should be kept to a minimum (<4 weeks) because of increased risk of secondary fractures. Alternatively, patients with refractures can be treated by surgery, when nonoperative treatment has failed