Child Mortality in Mozambique: a Review of Recent Trends and Attributable Causes

Data regarding the main causes of death among children in Mozambique are patchy, outdated, and in many cases based on methodologies with many underlying limitations, which make them unreliable. More robust postmortem methodologies to study the underlying causes of mortality, currently being introduced in a surveillance sentinel site of the country, will surely contribute to improve our understanding of what is really killing children in this country

Dengue Fever Outbreak in a Recreation Club, Dhaka, Bangladesh

An outbreak of dengue fever occurred among employees of a recreation club in Bangladesh. Occupational transmission was characterized by a 12% attack rate, no dengue among family contacts, and Aedes vectors in club areas. Early recognition of the outbreak likely limited its impact

Risk factors of hypertension among adults aged 35-64 years living in an urban slum Nairobi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is an emerging public health problem in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) and urbanization is considered to favor its emergence. Given a paucity of information on hypertension and associated risk factors among urban slum dwellers in SSA, we aimed to characterize the distribution of risk factors for hypertension and investigate their association with hypertension in an urban slum in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a community based cross-sectional survey among adults 35 years and older living in Kibera slum Nairobi, Kenya. Trained interviewers collected data on socio demographic characteristics and self reported health behaviours using modified World Health Organization stepwise surveillance questionnaire for chronic disease risk factors. Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were performed following standard procedures. Multiple logistic regression was used for analysis and odds ratios with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated to identify risk factors associated with hypertension. RESULT: A total of 1528 adults were surveyed with a mean age of 46.7 years. The age-standardized prevalence of hypertension was 29.4 % (95 % CI 27.0-31.7). Among the 418 participants classified as hypertensive, over one third (39.0 %) were unaware they had hypertension. Prevalence of current smoking and alcohol consumption was 8.5 and 13.1 % respectively. Over one quarter 26.2 % participants were classified as overweight (Body Mass Index [BMI] ≥25 to ≤29.9 kg/m(2)), and 17 % classified as obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m(2)). Overweight, obesity, current smoking, some level of education, highest wealth index, moderate physical activity, older age and being widowed were each independently associated with hypertension. When fit in a multivariable logistic regression model, being a widow [AOR = 1.7; (95 % CI, 1.1-2.6)], belonging to the highest wealth index [AOR = 1.6; (95 % CI, 1.1-2.5)], obesity [AOR = 1.8; 95 % CI, 1.1-3.1)] and moderate physical activity [AOR = 1.9; (95 % CI, 1.2-3.0)], all remained significantly associated with hypertension. CONCLUSION: Hypertension in the slum is a public health problem affecting at least one in three adults aged 35-64 years. Age, marital status, wealth index, physical inactivity and body mass index are important risk factors associated with hypertension. Prevention measures targeting the modifiable risk factors associated with hypertension are warranted to curb hypertension and its progressive effects

Healthcare-use for Major Infectious Disease Syndromes in an Informal Settlement in Nairobi, Kenya

A healthcare-use survey was conducted in the Kibera informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya, in July 2005 to inform subsequent surveillance in the site for infectious diseases. Sets of standardized questionnaires were administered to 1,542 caretakers and heads of households with one or more child(ren) aged less than five years. The average household-size was 5.1 (range 1-15) persons. Most (90%) resided in a single room with monthly rents of US$ 4.50-7.00. Within the previous two weeks, 49% of children (n=1,378) aged less than five years (under-five children) and 18% of persons (n=1,139) aged ≥5 years experienced febrile, diarrhoeal or respiratory illnesses. The large majority (>75%) of illnesses were associated with healthcare-seeking. While licensed clinics were the most-frequently visited settings, kiosks, unlicensed care providers, and traditional healers were also frequently visited. Expense was cited most often (50%) as the reason for not seeking healthcare. Of those who sought healthcare, 34-44% of the first and/or the only visits were made with non-licensed care providers, potentially delaying opportunities for early optimal intervention. The proportions of patients accessing healthcare facilities were higher with diarrhoeal disease and fever (but not for respiratory diseases in under-five children) than those reported from a contemporaneous study conducted in a rural area in Kenya. The findings support community-based rather than facility-based surveillance in this setting to achieve objectives for comprehensive assessment of the burden of disease

High prevalence of <i>Rickettsia africae</i> variants in <i>Amblyomma variegatum</i> ticks from domestic mammals in rural western Kenya: implications for human health

Tick-borne spotted fever group (SFG) rickettsioses are emerging human diseases caused by obligate intracellular Gram-negative bacteria of the genus Rickettsia. Despite being important causes of systemic febrile illnesses in travelers returning from sub-Saharan Africa, little is known about the reservoir hosts of these pathogens. We conducted surveys for rickettsiae in domestic animals and ticks in a rural setting in western Kenya. Of the 100 serum specimens tested from each species of domestic ruminant 43% of goats, 23% of sheep, and 1% of cattle had immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to the SFG rickettsiae. None of these sera were positive for IgG against typhus group rickettsiae. We detected Rickettsia africae–genotype DNA in 92.6% of adult Amblyomma variegatum ticks collected from domestic ruminants, but found no evidence of the pathogen in blood specimens from cattle, goats, or sheep. Sequencing of a subset of 21 rickettsia-positive ticks revealed R. africae variants in 95.2% (20/21) of ticks tested. Our findings show a high prevalence of R. africae variants in A. variegatum ticks in western Kenya, which may represent a low disease risk for humans. This may provide a possible explanation for the lack of African tick-bite fever cases among febrile patients in Kenya

Nutritional Status of Under-five Children Living in an Informal Urban Settlement in Nairobi, Kenya

Malnutrition in sub-Saharan Africa contributes to high rates of childhood morbidity and mortality. However, little information on the nutritional status of children is available from informal settlements. During the period of post-election violence in Kenya during December 2007–March 2008, food shortages were widespread within informal settlements in Nairobi. To investigate whether food insecurity due to post-election violence resulted in high prevalence of acute and chronic malnutrition in children, a nutritional survey was undertaken among children aged 6-59 months within two villages in Kibera, where the Kenya Medical Research Institute/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducts population-based surveillance for infectious disease syndromes. During 25 March–4 April 2008, a structured questionnaire was administered to caregivers of 1,310 children identified through surveillance system databases to obtain information on household demographics, food availability, and child-feeding practices. Anthropometric measurements were recorded on all participating children. Indices were reported in z-scores and compared with the World Health Organization (WHO) 2005 reference population to determine the nutritional status of children. Data were analyzed using the Anthro software of WHO and the SAS. Stunting was found in 47.0% of the children; 11.8% were underweight, and 2.6% were wasted. Severe stunting was found in 23.4% of the children; severe underweight in 3.1%, and severe wasting in 0.6%. Children aged 36-47 months had the highest prevalence (58.0%) of stunting while the highest prevalence (4.1%) of wasting was in children aged 6-11 months. Boys were more stunted than girls (p<0.01), and older children were significantly (p<0.0001) stunted compared to younger children. In the third year of life, girls were more likely than boys to be wasted (p<0.01). The high prevalence of chronic malnutrition suggests that stunting is a sustained problem within this urban informal settlement, not specifically resulting from the relatively brief political crisis. The predominance of stunting in older children indicates failure in growth and development during the first two years of life. Food programmes in Kenya have traditionally focused on rural areas and refugee camps. The findings of the study suggest that tackling childhood stunting is a high priority, and there should be fostered efforts to ensure that malnutrition-prevention strategies include the urban poor

Healthcare-seeking Behaviour for Common Infectious Disease-related Illnesses in Rural Kenya: A Community-based House-to-house Survey

Community surveys of healthcare-use determine the proportion of illness episodes not captured by health facility-based surveillance, the methodology used most commonly to estimate the burden of disease in Africa. A cross-sectional survey of households with children aged less than five years was conducted in 35 of 686 census enumeration areas in rural Bondo district, western Kenya. Healthcare sought for acute episodes of diarrhoea or fever in the past two weeks or pneumonia in the past year was evaluated. Factors associa-ted with healthcare-seeking were analyzed by logistic regression accounting for sample design. In total, 6,223 residents of 981 households were interviewed. Of 1,679 children aged less than five years, 233 (14%) had diarrhoea, and 736 (44%) had fever during the past two weeks; care at health facilities was sought for one-third of these episodes. Pneumonia in the past year was reported for 64 (4%) children aged less than five years; 88% sought healthcare at any health facility and 48% at hospitals. Seeking healthcare at health facilities was more likely for children from households with higher socioeconomic status and with more symptoms of severe illness. Health facility and hospital-based surveillance would underestimate the burden of disease substantially in rural western Kenya. Seeking healthcare at health facilities and hospitals varied by syndrome, severity of illness, and characteristics of the patient

Bayesian decision trees for predicting survival of patients: a study on the US National Trauma Data Bank

Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) models have been developed for predicting the survival probability of injured patients the majority of which obtain up to three injuries in six body regions. Practitioners have noted that the accuracy of TRISS predictions is unacceptable for patients with a larger number of injuries. Moreover, the TRISS method is incapable of providing accurate estimates of predictive density of survival, that are required for calculating confidence intervals. In this paper we propose Bayesian in ference for estimating the desired predictive density. The inference is based on decision tree models which split data along explanatory variables, that makes these models interpretable. The proposed method has outperformed the TRISS method in terms of accuracy of prediction on the cases recorded in the US National Trauma Data Bank. The developed method has been made available for evaluation purposes as a stand-alone application

Prediction of survival probabilities with Bayesian Decision Trees

Practitioners use Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) models for predicting the survival probability of an injured patient. The accuracy of TRISS predictions is acceptable for patients with up to three typical injuries, but unacceptable for patients with a larger number of injuries or with atypical injuries. Based on a regression model, the TRISS methodology does not provide the predictive density required for accurate assessment of risk. Moreover, the regression model is difficult to interpret. We therefore consider Bayesian inference for estimating the predictive distribution of survival. The inference is based on decision tree models which recursively split data along explanatory variables, and so practitioners can understand these models. We propose the Bayesian method for estimating the predictive density and show that it outperforms the TRISS method in terms of both goodness-of-fit and classification accuracy. The developed method has been made available for evaluation purposes as a stand-alone application