The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce

BACKGROUND: Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. METHODS: The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta) was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners). RESULTS: At its peak (week 4) the pandemic would lead to 1.2% to 2.7% loss of medical work time, using conservative baseline assumptions. Most workdays (88%) would be lost due to illness, followed by hospitalisation (8%), and then premature death (4%). Inputs for a "more severe" scenario included greater health effects and time spent caring for sick relatives. For this scenario, 9% of medical workdays would be lost in the peak week, and 3% over a more compressed six-week period of the first pandemic wave. As with the base case, most (64%) of lost workdays would be due to illness, followed by caring for others (31%), hospitalisation (4%), and then premature death (1%). CONCLUSION: Preparedness planning for future influenza pandemics must consider the impact on this medical workforce and incorporate strategies to minimise this impact, including infection control measures, well-designed protocols, and improved health sector surge capacity

How a Diverse Research Ecosystem Has Generated New Rehabilitation Technologies: Review of NIDILRR’s Rehabilitation Engineering Research Centers

Over 50 million United States citizens (1 in 6 people in the US) have a developmental, acquired, or degenerative disability. The average US citizen can expect to live 20% of his or her life with a disability. Rehabilitation technologies play a major role in improving the quality of life for people with a disability, yet widespread and highly challenging needs remain. Within the US, a major effort aimed at the creation and evaluation of rehabilitation technology has been the Rehabilitation Engineering Research Centers (RERCs) sponsored by the National Institute on Disability, Independent Living, and Rehabilitation Research. As envisioned at their conception by a panel of the National Academy of Science in 1970, these centers were intended to take a “total approach to rehabilitation”, combining medicine, engineering, and related science, to improve the quality of life of individuals with a disability. Here, we review the scope, achievements, and ongoing projects of an unbiased sample of 19 currently active or recently terminated RERCs. Specifically, for each center, we briefly explain the needs it targets, summarize key historical advances, identify emerging innovations, and consider future directions. Our assessment from this review is that the RERC program indeed involves a multidisciplinary approach, with 36 professional fields involved, although 70% of research and development staff are in engineering fields, 23% in clinical fields, and only 7% in basic science fields; significantly, 11% of the professional staff have a disability related to their research. We observe that the RERC program has substantially diversified the scope of its work since the 1970’s, addressing more types of disabilities using more technologies, and, in particular, often now focusing on information technologies. RERC work also now often views users as integrated into an interdependent society through technologies that both people with and without disabilities co-use (such as the internet, wireless communication, and architecture). In addition, RERC research has evolved to view users as able at improving outcomes through learning, exercise, and plasticity (rather than being static), which can be optimally timed. We provide examples of rehabilitation technology innovation produced by the RERCs that illustrate this increasingly diversifying scope and evolving perspective. We conclude by discussing growth opportunities and possible future directions of the RERC program

Effect of Geographical Access to Health Facilities on Child Mortality in Rural Ethiopia: A Community Based Cross Sectional Study

BACKGROUND: There have been few studies that have examined associations between access to health care and child health outcomes in remote populations most in need of health services. This study assessed the effect of travel time and distance to health facilities on mortality in children under five years in a remote area of rural north-western Ethiopia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This study involved a randomly selected cross sectional survey of 2,058 households. Data were collected during home visits to all resident women of reproductive age (15-49 years). A geographic information system (GIS) was used to map all households and the only health centre in the district. The analysis was restricted to 2,206 rural children who were under the age of five years during the five years before the survey. Data were analysed using random effects Poisson regression. 90.4% (1,996/2,206) of children lived more than 1.5 hours walk from the health centre. Children who lived ≥1.5 hrs from the health centre had a two to three fold greater risk of death than children who lived <1.5 hours from the health centre (children with travel time 1.5-<2.5 hrs adjusted relative risk [adjRR] 2.3[0.95-5.6], travel time 2.5-<3.5 hrs adjRR 3.1[1.3-7.4] and travel time 3.5-<6.5 hrs adjRR 2.5[1.1-6.2]). CONCLUSION: Distance to a health centre had a marked influence on under five mortality in a poor, rural, remote area of Ethiopia. This study provides important information for policy makers on the likely impact of new health centres and their most effective location in remote areas

Optimizing the two-step floating catchment area method for measuring spatial accessibility to medical clinics in Montreal

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Reducing spatial access disparities to healthcare services is a growing priority for healthcare planners especially among developed countries with aging populations. There is thus a pressing need to determine which populations do not enjoy access to healthcare, yet efforts to quantify such disparities in spatial accessibility have been hampered by a lack of satisfactory measurements and methods. This study compares an optimised and the conventional version of the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method to assess spatial accessibility to medical clinics in Montreal.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We first computed catchments around existing medical clinics of Montreal Island based on the shortest network distance. Population nested in dissemination areas were used to determine potential users of a given medical clinic. To optimize the method, medical clinics (supply) were weighted by the number of physicians working in each clinic, while the previous year's medical clinic users were computed by ten years age group was used as weighting coefficient for potential users of each medical clinic (demand).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The spatial accessibility score (SA) increased considerably with the optimisation method. Within a distance of 1 Km, for instance, the maximum clinic accessible for 1,000 persons is 2.4 when the conventional method is used, compared with 27.7 for the optimized method. The t-test indicates a significant difference between the conventional and the optimized 2SFCA methods. Also, results of the differences between the two methods reveal a clustering of residuals when distance increases. In other words, a low threshold would be associated with a lack of precision.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Results of this study suggest that a greater effort must be made ameliorate spatial accessibility to medical clinics in Montreal. To ensure that health resources are allocated in the interest of the population, health planners and the government should consider a strategy in the sitting of future clinics which would provide spatial access to the greatest number of people.</p

Driver self-regulation and depressive symptoms in cataract patients awaiting surgery: a cross-sectional study

Background: Cataract is an extremely common visual condition of ageing. Evidence suggests that visual impairment influences driving patterns and self-regulatory behavior among older drivers. However, little is known about the psychological effects of driver self-regulation among older drivers. Therefore, this study aimed to describe driver self-regulation practices among older bilateral cataract patients and to determine the association between self-regulation and depressive symptoms. Methods: Ninety-nine older drivers with bilateral cataract were assessed the week before first eye cataract surgery. Driver self-regulation was measured via the Driving Habits Questionnaire. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the 20-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale. Visual, demographic and cognitive data were also collected. Differences between self-regulators and non self-regulators were described and linear regression modeling used to determine the association between driver self-regulation and depressive symptoms score. Results: Among cataract patients, 48% reported self-regulating their driving to avoid at least one challenging situation. The situations most commonly avoided were driving at night (40%), on the freeway (12%), in the rain (9%) and parallel parking (8%). Self-regulators had significantly poorer contrast sensitivity in their worse eye than non self-regulators (p = 0.027). Driver self-regulation was significantly associated with increased depressive symptoms after controlling for potential confounding factors (p = 0.002).Conclusions: Driver self-regulation was associated with increased depressive symptoms among cataract patients. Further research should investigate this association among the general older population. Self-regulation programs aimed at older drivers may need to incorporate mental health elements to counteract unintended psychological effects

Lichen response to ammonia deposition defines the footprint of a penguin rookery

Ammonia volatilized from penguin rookeries is a major nitrogen source in Antarctic coastal terrestrial ecosystems. However, the spatial extent of ammonia dispersion from rookeries and its impacts have not been quantified previously. We measured ammonia concentration in air and lichen ecophysiological response variables proximate to an Adèlie penguin rookery at Cape Hallett, northern Victoria Land. Ammonia emitted from the rookery was 15N-enriched (δ15N value +6.9) and concentrations in air ranged from 36–75 µg m−3 at the rookery centre to 0.05 µg m−3 at a distance of 15.3 km. δ15N values and rates of phosphomonoesterase (PME) activity in the lichens Usnea sphacelata and Umbilicaria decussata were strongly negatively related to distance from the rookery and PME activity was positively related to thallus N:P mass ratio. In contrast, the lichen Xanthomendoza borealis, which is largely restricted to within an area 0.5 km from the rookery perimeter, had high N, P and 15N concentrations but low PME activity suggesting that nutrient scavenging capacity is suppressed in highly eutrophicated sites. An ammonia dispersion model indicates that ammonia concentrations sufficient to significantly elevate PME activity and δ15N values (≥0.1 µg NH3 m−3) occurred over c. 40–300 km2 surrounding the rookery suggesting that penguin rookeries potentially can generate large spatial impact zones. In a general linear model NH3 concentration and lichen species identity were found to account for 72 % of variation in the putative proportion of lichen thallus N originating from penguin derived NH3. The results provide evidence of large scale impact of N transfer from a marine to an N-limited terrestrial ecosystem

Classification of landforms in Southern Portugal (Ria Formosa Basin)

A Geographic Information Systems-based tool is used for macro-landform classification following the Hammond procedure, based upon a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) created from ordinary Kriging. Gentle slopes, surface curvature, highlands and lowlands areas are derived from the DTM. Combining this information allows the classification of terrain units (landforms). The procedure is applied to the Ria Formosa basin (Southern Portugal), with five different terrain types classified (plains, tablelands, plains with hills, open hills and hills)

A method to determine spatial access to specialized palliative care services using GIS

Background: Providing palliative care is a growing priority for health service administratorsworldwide as the populations of many nations continue to age rapidly. In many countries, palliativecare services are presently inadequate and this problem will be exacerbated in the coming years.The provision of palliative care, moreover, has been piecemeal in many jurisdictions and there islittle distinction made at present between levels of service provision. There is a pressing need todetermine which populations do not enjoy access to specialized palliative care services in particular.Methods: Catchments around existing specialized palliative care services in the Canadian provinceof British Columbia were calculated based on real road travel time. Census block face populationcounts were linked to postal codes associated with road segments in order to determine thepercentage of the total population more than one hour road travel time from specialized palliativecare.Results: Whilst 81% of the province\u27s population resides within one hour from at least onespecialized palliative care service, spatial access varies greatly by regional health authority. Based onthe definition of specialized palliative care adopted for the study, the Northern Health Authorityhas, for instance, just two such service locations, and well over half of its population do not havereasonable spatial access to such care.Conclusion: Strategic location analysis methods must be developed and used to accurately locatefuture palliative services in order to provide spatial access to the greatest number of people, andto ensure that limited health resources are allocated wisely. Improved spatial access has thepotential to reduce travel-times for patients, for palliative care workers making home visits, and fortravelling practitioners. These methods are particularly useful for health service planners – andprovide a means to rationalize their decision-making. Moreover, they are extendable to a numberof health service allocation problems

Maintenance or Discontinuation of Antidepressants in Primary Care

BACKGROUND: Patients with depression who are treated in primary care practices may receive antidepressants for prolonged periods. Data are limited on the effects of maintaining or discontinuing antidepressant therapy in this setting. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial involving adults who were being treated in 150 general practices in the United Kingdom. All the patients had a history of at least two depressive episodes or had been taking antidepressants for 2 years or longer and felt well enough to consider stopping antidepressants. Patients who had received citalopram, fluoxetine, sertraline, or mirtazapine were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to maintain their current antidepressant therapy (maintenance group) or to taper and discontinue such therapy with the use of matching placebo (discontinuation group). The primary outcome was the first relapse of depression during the 52-week trial period, as evaluated in a time-to-event analysis. Secondary outcomes were depressive and anxiety symptoms, physical and withdrawal symptoms, quality of life, time to stopping an antidepressant or placebo, and global mood ratings. RESULTS: A total of 1466 patients underwent screening. Of these patients, 478 were enrolled in the trial (238 in the maintenance group and 240 in the discontinuation group). The average age of the patients was 54 years; 73% were women. Adherence to the trial assignment was 70% in the maintenance group and 52% in the discontinuation group. By 52 weeks, relapse occurred in 92 of 238 patients (39%) in the maintenance group and in 135 of 240 (56%) in the discontinuation group (hazard ratio, 2.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.56 to 2.70; P<0.001). Secondary outcomes were generally in the same direction as the primary outcome. Patients in the discontinuation group had more symptoms of depression, anxiety, and withdrawal than those in the maintenance group. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients in primary care practices who felt well enough to discontinue antidepressant therapy, those who were assigned to stop their medication had a higher risk of relapse of depression by 52 weeks than those who were assigned to maintain their current therapy

Antidepressant medication to prevent depression relapse in primary care: the ANTLER RCT

Background: There has been a steady increase in the number of primary care patients receiving long-term maintenance antidepressant treatment, despite limited evidence of a benefit of this treatment beyond 8 months. Objective: The ANTidepressants to prevent reLapse in dEpRession (ANTLER) trial investigated the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of antidepressant medication in preventing relapse in UK primary care. Design: This was a Phase IV, double-blind, pragmatic, multisite, individually randomised parallel-group controlled trial, with follow-up at 6, 12, 26, 39 and 52 weeks. Participants were randomised using minimisation on centre, type of antidepressant and baseline depressive symptom score above or below the median using Clinical Interview Schedule – Revised (two categories). Statisticians were blind to allocation for the outcome analyses. Setting: General practices in London, Bristol, Southampton and York. Participants: Individuals aged 18–74 years who had experienced at least two episodes of depression and had been taking antidepressants for ≥ 9 months but felt well enough to consider stopping their medication. Those who met an International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, diagnosis of depression or with other psychiatric conditions were excluded. Intervention: At baseline, participants were taking citalopram 20 mg, sertraline 100 mg, fluoxetine 20 mg or mirtazapine 30 mg. They were randomised to either remain on their current medication or discontinue medication after a tapering period. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was the time, in weeks, to the beginning of the first depressive episode after randomisation. This was measured by a retrospective Clinical Interview Schedule – Revised that assessed the onset of a depressive episode in the previous 12 weeks, and was conducted at 12, 26, 39 and 52 weeks. The depression-related resource use was collected over 12 months from medical records and patient-completed questionnaires. Quality-adjusted life-years were calculated using the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version. Results: Between 9 March 2017 and 1 March 2019, we randomised 238 participants to antidepressant continuation (the maintenance group) and 240 participants to antidepressant discontinuation (the discontinuation group). The time to relapse of depression was shorter in the discontinuation group, with a hazard ratio of 2.06 (95% confidence interval 1.56 to 2.70; p < 0.0001). By 52 weeks, relapse was experienced by 39% of those who continued antidepressants and 56% of those who discontinued antidepressants. The secondary analysis revealed that people who discontinued experienced more withdrawal symptoms than those who remained on medication, with the largest difference at 12 weeks. In the discontinuation group, 37% (95% confidence interval 28% to 45%) of participants remained on their randomised medication until the end of the trial. In total, 39% (95% confidence interval 32% to 45%) of participants in the discontinuation group returned to their original antidepressant compared with 20% (95% confidence interval 15% to 25%) of participants in maintenance group. The health  economic evaluation demonstrated that participants randomised to discontinuation had worse utility scores at 3 months (–0.037, 95% confidence interval –0.059 to –0.015) and fewer quality-adjusted life-years over 12 months (–0.019, 95% confidence interval –0.035 to –0.003) than those randomised to continuation. The discontinuation pathway, besides giving worse outcomes, also cost more [extra £2.71 per patient over 12 months (95% confidence interval –£36.10 to £37.07)] than the continuation pathway, although the cost difference was not significant. Conclusions: Patients who discontinue long-term maintenance antidepressants in primary care are at increased risk of relapse and withdrawal symptoms. However, a substantial proportion of patients can discontinue antidepressants without relapse. Our findings will give patients and clinicians an estimate of the likely benefits and harms of stopping long-term maintenance antidepressants and improve shared decision-making. The participants may not have been representative of all people on long-term maintenance treatment and we could study only a restricted range of antidepressants and doses. Identifying patients who will not relapse if they discontinued antidepressants would be clinically important