Getting out the vote: party mobilization in a comparative perspective

© 2007 Cambridge University PressA long tradition within political science examines the impact of party canvassing on voter participation. Very little of this work, however, is comparative in scope. This essay examines how system-level characteristics shape the nature and impact of party canvassing and how voters respond to those efforts. Parties are found to target the same types of potential voters everywhere – those who are likely to participate. However, one important difference is that overall levels of party contact are far greater in candidate-based systems than in proportional representation (PR) systems. Party mobilization, therefore, cannot explain the higher rates of turnout observed in PR systems

Financing Direct Democracy: Revisiting the Research on Campaign Spending and Citizen Initiatives

The conventional view in the direct democracy literature is that spending against a measure is more effective than spending in favor of a measure, but the empirical results underlying this conclusion have been questioned by recent research. We argue that the conventional finding is driven by the endogenous nature of campaign spending: initiative proponents spend more when their ballot measure is likely to fail. We address this endogeneity by using an instrumental variables approach to analyze a comprehensive dataset of ballot propositions in California from 1976 to 2004. We find that both support and opposition spending on citizen initiatives have strong, statistically significant, and countervailing effects. We confirm this finding by looking at time series data from early polling on a subset of these measures. Both analyses show that spending in favor of citizen initiatives substantially increases their chances of passage, just as opposition spending decreases this likelihood

The \u3cem\u3eChlamydomonas\u3c/em\u3e Genome Reveals the Evolution of Key Animal and Plant Functions

Chlamydomonas reinhardtii is a unicellular green alga whose lineage diverged from land plants over 1 billion years ago. It is a model system for studying chloroplast-based photosynthesis, as well as the structure, assembly, and function of eukaryotic flagella (cilia), which were inherited from the common ancestor of plants and animals, but lost in land plants. We sequenced the ∼120-megabase nuclear genome of Chlamydomonas and performed comparative phylogenomic analyses, identifying genes encoding uncharacterized proteins that are likely associated with the function and biogenesis of chloroplasts or eukaryotic flagella. Analyses of the Chlamydomonas genome advance our understanding of the ancestral eukaryotic cell, reveal previously unknown genes associated with photosynthetic and flagellar functions, and establish links between ciliopathy and the composition and function of flagella

Explaining Institutional Change: Why Elected Politicians Implement Direct Democracy

In existing models of direct democratic institutions, the median voter benefits, but representative politicians are harmed since their policy choices can be overridden. This is a puzzle, since representative politicians were instrumental in creating these institutions. I build a model of direct democracy that explains why a representative might benefit from tying his or her own hands in this way. The key features are (1) that voters are uncertain about their representative's preferences; (2) that direct and representative elections are complementary ways for voters to control outcomes. The model shows that some politicians benefit from the introduction of direct democracy, since they are more likely to survive representative elections: direct democracy credibly prevents politicians from realising extreme outcomes. Historical evidence from the introduction of the initiative, referendum and recall in America broadly supports the theory, which also explains two empirical results that have puzzled scholars: legislators are trusted less, but reelected more, in US states with direct democracy. I conclude by discussing the potential for incomplete information and signaling models to improve our understanding of institutional change more generally

Planet Occurrence within 0.25 AU of Solar-type Stars from Kepler

We report the distribution of planets as a function of planet radius (R_p), orbital period (P), and stellar effective temperature (Teff) for P < 50 day orbits around GK stars. These results are based on the 1,235 planets (formally "planet candidates") from the Kepler mission that include a nearly complete set of detected planets as small as 2 Earth radii (Re). For each of the 156,000 target stars we assess the detectability of planets as a function of R_p and P. We also correct for the geometric probability of transit, R*/a. We consider first stars within the "solar subset" having Teff = 4100-6100 K, logg = 4.0-4.9, and Kepler magnitude Kp < 15 mag. We include only those stars having noise low enough to permit detection of planets down to 2 Re. We count planets in small domains of R_p and P and divide by the included target stars to calculate planet occurrence in each domain. Occurrence of planets varies by more than three orders of magnitude and increases substantially down to the smallest radius (2 Re) and out to the longest orbital period (50 days, ~0.25 AU) in our study. For P < 50 days, the radius distribution is given by a power law, df/dlogR= k R^\alpha. This rapid increase in planet occurrence with decreasing planet size agrees with core-accretion, but disagrees with population synthesis models. We fit occurrence as a function of P to a power law model with an exponential cutoff below a critical period P_0. For smaller planets, P_0 has larger values, suggesting that the "parking distance" for migrating planets moves outward with decreasing planet size. We also measured planet occurrence over Teff = 3600-7100 K, spanning M0 to F2 dwarfs. The occurrence of 2-4 Re planets in the Kepler field increases with decreasing Teff, making these small planets seven times more abundant around cool stars than the hottest stars in our sample. [abridged]Comment: Submitted to ApJ, 22 pages, 10 figure

Respiratory Symptoms Items from the COPD Assessment Test Identify Ever-Smokers with Preserved Lung Function at Higher Risk for Poor Respiratory Outcomes

Rationale: Ever-smokers without airflow obstruction scores greater than or equal to 10 on the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) still have frequent acute respiratory disease events (exacerbation-like), impaired exercise capacity, and imaging abnormalities. Identification of these subjects could provide new opportunities for targeted interventions. Objectives: We hypothesized that the four respiratory-related items of the CAT might be useful for identifying such individuals, with discriminative ability similar to CAT, which is an eight-item questionnaire used to assess chronic obstructive pulmonary disease impact, including nonrespiratory questions, with scores ranging from 0 to 40. Methods: We evaluated ever-smoker participants in the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcomes in COPD Study without airflow obstruction (FEV1/FVC≥0.70; FVC above the lower limit of normal). Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, we compared responses to both CAT and the respiratory symptom–related CAT items (cough, phlegm, chest tightness, and breathlessness) and their associations with longitudinal exacerbations. We tested agreement between the two strategies (k statistic), and we compared demographics, lung function, and symptoms among subjects identified as having high symptoms by each strategy. Results: Among 880 ever-smokers with normal lung function (mean age, 61 yr; 52% women) and using a CAT cutpoint greater than or equal to 10, we classified 51.8% of individuals as having high symptoms, 15.3% of whom experienced at least one exacerbation during 1-year follow-up. After testing sensitivity and specificity of different scores for the first four questions to predict any 1-year followup exacerbation, we selected cutpoints of 0–6 as representing a low burden of symptoms versus scores of 7 or higher as representing a high burden of symptoms for all subsequent comparisons. The four respiratory-related items with cutpoint greater than or equal to 7 selected 45.8% participants, 15.6% of whom experienced at least one exacerbation during follow-up. The two strategies largely identified the same individuals (agreement, 88.5%; k = 0.77; P \u3c 0.001), and the proportions of high-symptoms subjects who had severe dyspnea were similar between CAT and the first four CAT questions (25.9% and 26.8%, respectively), as were the proportions reporting impaired quality of life (66.9% and 70.5%, respectively) and short walking distance (22.4% and 23.1%, respectively). There was no difference in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict 1-year follow-up exacerbations (CAT score ≥10, 0.66; vs. four respiratory items from CAT ≥ 7 score, 0.65; P = 0.69). Subjects identified by either method also hadmore depression/anxiety symptoms, poor sleep quality, and greater fatigue. Conclusions: Four CAT items on respiratory symptoms identified high-risk symptomatic ever-smokers with preserved spirometry as well as the CAT did. These data suggest that simpler strategies can be developed to identify these high-risk individuals in primary care

A qualitative study of ambulance personnel, care staff and service users’ experiences and perceptions of emergency care in care homes

Background Medical emergencies in care homes are common and costly, often resulting in calls to emergency services, ambulance attendance, conveyance, and hospital admissions. Over half of emergency transfers to hospital could be prevented with better ongoing care, access to primary care and training of staff. Our aim was to explore ambulance staff experiences of emergencies in care homes. Methods We employed a qualitative design. The study involved semi-structured interviews with ambulance staff working at the East Midlands Ambulance Service NHS Trust. Data were analysed thematically using a framework approach. Results We interviewed 15 ambulance staff (including paramedics, technicians, urgent care assistants). Preliminary analysis showed that although good communication with care home staff was considered important, experiences were varied. The importance of good, adequate resident information ready for ambulance staff upon arrival was highlighted. Regarding the decision-making process, participants reported consulting with everyone involved (care home staff, residents, relatives) and making final decisions based on various factors, including the resident/their family’s wishes, medical history, ReSPECT forms, alternative pathways to A&E, and what they considered the most appropriate course of action for the resident. Care home-related factors (access/egress issues; staff training; policies and procedures; and overall quality of care) and Emergency Medical Services-related factors (current pressures on the service; better training needed on working with people with dementia, end-of-life care, etc.; having access to an on-call geriatrician), which impact those who experience emergencies in care homes, were also discussed. Conclusion This study highlights the main challenges and facilitators that ambulance staff are faced with when dealing with emergencies in care homes. These data present findings of one staff group and triangulation with care home staff, resident and family perspectives would generate further insights. The findings will inform the development of interventions to improve outcomes and experiences of emergencies in care homes