Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Margin Process for a Flexible Thermal Protection System

Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Entry vehicle thermal protections systems are traditionally over-margined for the heat loads that are experienced along the entry trajectory by designing to survive stacked worst-case scenarios. Additionally, the conventional heat shield design and margin process offers very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight and the corresponding reliability of the heat shield performance. A probabilistic margin process can be used to appropriately margin the thermal protection system based on rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory design, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This study presents the methods of the probabilistic margin process and how the uncertainty analysis is used to determine the reliability of the entry vehicle thermal protection system and associated risks of failure

ASPIRE Flight Mechanics Modeling and Post Flight Analysis

The Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research and Experiment (ASPIRE) is a series of sounding rocket flights aimed at understanding the dynamics of supersonic parachutes that are used for Mars robotic applications. SR01 was the first sounding rocket flight of ASPIRE that occurred off the coast of Wallops Island, VA on Oct. 4, 2017 and showed the successful deployment and inflation of a Mars Science Laboratory built-to- print parachute in flight conditions similar to the 2012 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission. SR02 was the second sounding rocket flight that also occurred off the coast of Wallops Island on March 31, 2018 and showcased the successful deployment and inflation of a new strengthened parachute being considered for the Mars 2020 mission at fifty percent higher dynamic pressure than observed on MSL. Prior to both flights, a multi-body flight dynamics simulation was developed to predict the parachute dynamics and was used, in conjunction with other tools, to target Mars-relevant flight conditions. After each flight, the reconstructed trajectory was used to validate the pre-flight dynamics simulation and recommend changes to improve predictions for future flights planned for the ASPIRE pro- gram. This paper describes the flight mechanics simulation and the post flight reconciliation process used to validate the flight models

LDSD POST2 Modeling Enhancements in Support of SFDT-2 Flight Operations

Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) was utilized to develop trajectory simulations characterizing all flight phases from drop to splashdown for the Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) project's first and second Supersonic Flight Dynamics Tests (SFDT-1 and SFDT-2) which took place June 28, 2014 and June 8, 2015, respectively. This paper describes the modeling improvements incorporated into the LDSD POST2 simulations since SFDT-1 and presents how these modeling updates affected the predicted SFDT-2 performance and sensitivity to the mission design. The POST2 simulation flight dynamics support during the SFDT-2 launch, operations, and recovery is also provided

Implementation and Simulation Results using Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software

An Autonomous Aerobraking software system is currently under development with support from the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) that would move typically ground-based operations functions to onboard an aerobraking spacecraft, reducing mission risk and mission cost. The suite of software that will enable autonomous aerobraking is the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software (AADS) and consists of an ephemeris model, onboard atmosphere estimator, temperature and loads prediction, and a maneuver calculation. The software calculates the maneuver time, magnitude and direction commands to maintain the spacecraft periapsis parameters within design structural load and/or thermal constraints. The AADS is currently tested in simulations at Mars, with plans to also evaluate feasibility and performance at Venus and Titan

Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software: Phase One Performance Analysis at Mars, Venus, and Titan

When entering orbit about a planet or moon with an appreciable atmosphere, instead of using only the propulsion system to insert the spacecraft into its desired orbit, aerodynamic drag can be used after the initial orbit insertion to further decelerate the spacecraft. Several past NASA missions have used this aerobraking technique to reduce the fuel required to deliver a spacecraft into a desired orbit. Aerobraking was first demonstrated at Venus with Magellan in 1993 and then was used to achieve the science orbit of three Mars orbiters: Mars Global Surveyor in 1997, Mars Odyssey in 2001, and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter in 2006. Although aerobraking itself reduces the propellant required to reach a final low period orbit, it does so at the expense of additional mission time to accommodate the aerobraking operations phase (typically 3-6 months), a large mission operations staff, and significant Deep Space Network (DSN) coverage. By automating ground based tasks and analyses associated with aerobraking and moving these onboard the spacecraft, a flight project could save millions of dollars in operations staffing and DSN costs (Ref. 1)

LDSD POST2 Simulation and SFDT-1 Pre-Flight Launch Operations Analyses

The Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) Project's first Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT-1) occurred June 28, 2014. Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) was utilized to develop trajectory simulations characterizing all SFDT-1 flight phases from drop to splashdown. These POST2 simulations were used to validate the targeting parameters developed for SFDT- 1, predict performance and understand the sensitivity of the vehicle and nominal mission designs, and to support flight test operations with trajectory performance and splashdown location predictions for vehicle recovery. This paper provides an overview of the POST2 simulations developed for LDSD and presents the POST2 simulation flight dynamics support during the SFDT-1 launch, operations, and recovery

Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test 1 - Post-Flight Assessment of Simulation Performance

NASA's Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) project conducted its first Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT-1) on June 28, 2014. Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) was one of the flight dynamics codes used to simulate and predict the flight performance and Monte Carlo analysis was used to characterize the potential flight conditions experienced by the test vehicle. This paper compares the simulation predictions with the reconstructed trajectory of SFDT-1. Additionally, off-nominal conditions seen during flight are modeled in post-flight simulations to find the primary contributors that reconcile the simulation with flight data. The results of these analyses are beneficial for the pre-flight simulation and targeting of the follow-on SFDT flights currently scheduled for summer 2015

Post-Flight Assessment of Low Density Supersonic Decelerator Flight Dynamics Test 2 Simulation

NASA's Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) project conducted its second Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT-2) on June 8, 2015. The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) was one of the flight dynamics tools used to simulate and predict the flight performance and was a major tool used in the post-flight assessment of the flight trajectory. This paper compares the simulation predictions with the reconstructed trajectory. Additionally, off-nominal conditions seen during flight are modeled in the simulation to reconcile the predictions with flight data. These analyses are beneficial to characterize the results of the flight test and to improve the simulation and targeting of the subsequent LDSD flights

Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software: Phase 2 Summary

NASA has used aerobraking at Mars and Venus to reduce the fuel required to deliver a spacecraft into a desired orbit compared to an all-propulsive solution. Although aerobraking reduces the propellant, it does so at the expense of mission duration, large staff, and DSN coverage. These factors make aerobraking a significant cost element in the mission design. By moving on-board the current ground-based tasks of ephemeris determination, atmospheric density estimation, and maneuver sizing and execution, a flight project would realize significant cost savings. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) sponsored Phase 1 and 2 of the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software (AADS) study, which demonstrated the initial feasibility of moving these current ground-based functions to the spacecraft. This paper highlights key state-of-the-art advancements made in the Phase 2 effort to verify that the AADS algorithms are accurate, robust and ready to be considered for application on future missions that utilize aerobraking. The advancements discussed herein include both model updates and simulation and benchmark testing. Rigorous testing using observed flight atmospheres, operational environments and statistical analysis characterized the AADS operability in a perturbed environment

Evaluating the stable isotopic composition of phosphate oxygen as a tracer of phosphorus from waste water treatment works

Eutrophication is a globally significant challenge facing freshwater ecosystems and is closely associated with anthropogenic enrichment of phosphorus (P) in the aquatic environment. Phosphorus inputs to rivers are usually dominated by diffuse sources related to farming activities and point sources such as waste water treatment works (WwTW). The limited availability of inherent labels for different P sources has constrained understanding of these triggers for eutrophication in natural systems. There have been substantial recent advances in the use of phosphate oxygen isotopes (δ18OPO4) as a way of understanding phosphate sources and processing. Results from all previous studies of the δ18OPO4 composition of WwTW effluent and septic tanks are combined together with significant new data from the UK to assess δ18OPO4 compositions in waste water sources. The overall average δ18OPO4 value is 13.9‰, ranging from 8.4 to 19.7‰. Values measured in the USA are much lower than those measured in Europe. A strong positive correlation exists between δ18OPO4 and δ18OH2O, suggesting biologically-mediated exchange between the water molecules and the phosphate ions. A comparison of δ18OPO4 and the offset from isotopic equilibrium showed a strong positive linear correlation (ρ = 0.94) for the data from Europe but no relationship for the historic USA data which may be due to recent advances in the extraction procedure or to a relative paucity of data. This offset is most strongly controlled by the δ18OH2O rather than temperature, with greater offsets occurring with lower δ18OH2O. Time series data collected over 8-24 hours for three sites showed that, although there were significant changes in the phosphate concentration, for a given WwTW the δ18OPO4 stayed relatively constant. Two new studies that considered instream processing of δ18OPO4 downstream of WwTWs showed mixing of the upstream source with effluent water but no evidence of biological cycling 3 km downstream. It is suggested that δ18OPO4 can be an effective tool to trace P from WwTWs provided the source of the effluent is known and samples are collected within a day