Ecological Processes in Forest Gap Models — Analysis and Improvement

In the last two decades, forest succession models of the JABOWA/FORET type ("gap models") have grown to rather complex models. This makes simulation studies tedious, o the least because of the long simulation times and the inflexibility in experimenting with model modi-fications. Thus, only little could be learned about the relative importance of the numerous ecologi

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Climate change and outdoor regional living plant collections: an example from mainland Portugal

Original PaperClimate change threatens not only plant species occurring naturally, but also impacts on regional living plant collections, which play an important role in ex situ conservation strategies. In the last few years, several global circulation models have been used to predict different global climate change scenarios. Due to their coarse resolutions, and while more detailed regional approaches are not available, downscaling techniques have been proposed, as a very simple first approach to increase detail. We analysed seven sites on mainland Portugal with potential for species conservation (four botanic gardens and three universities), in the light of downscaled climate change scenarios, using an environmental envelope approach and a predefined bioclimatic neighbourhood for each site. Thresholds for the bioclimatic neighbourhood were based on Rivas-Martı´nez’s Bioclimatic Classification of the Earth. For each site, the expected geographical shift of its original bioclimatic neighbourhood (1950–2000) was mapped for 2020, 2050 and 2080. Analysing those shifts enabled us to delineate knowledge-transfer paths between sites, according to the analysed scenarios. We concluded that, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 scenario, all considered sites will be outside the predefined bioclimatic neighbourhood by 2080, while according to the B2 scenario all of them will be inside that neighbourhood, although sometimes marginally so. Therefore, the implementation of global sustainability measures as considered in the B2 scenario family can be of great importance in order to delay significantly the impacts of climate change, giving extra time for the adaptation of the outdoor regional living plant collectionsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Senescence Is More Important in the Natural Lives of Long- Than Short-Lived Mammals

Senescence has been widely detected among mammals, but its importance to fitness in wild populations remains controversial. According to evolutionary theories, senescence occurs at an age when selection is relatively weak, which in mammals can be predicted by adult survival rates. However, a recent analysis of senescence rates found more age-dependent mortalities in natural populations of longer lived mammal species. This has important implications to ageing research and for understanding the ecological relevance of senescence, yet so far these have not been widely appreciated. We re-address this question by comparing the mean and maximum life span of 125 mammal species. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that senescence occurs at a younger age relative to the mean natural life span in longer lived species.We show, using phylogenetically-informed generalised least squares models, a significant log-log relationship between mean life span, as calculated from estimates of adult survival for natural populations, and maximum recorded life span among mammals (R2=0.57, p<0.0001). This provides further support for a key prediction of evolutionary theories of ageing. The slope of this relationship (0.353+/-0.052 s.e.m.), however, indicated that mammals with higher survival rates have a mean life span representing a greater fraction of their potential maximum life span: the ratio of maximum to mean life span decreased significantly from >10 in short-lived to approximately 1.5 in long-lived mammal species.We interpret the ratio of maximum to mean life span to be an index of the likelihood an individual will experience senescence, which largely determines maximum life span. Our results suggest that senescence occurs at an earlier age relative to the mean life span, and therefore is experienced by more individuals and remains under selection pressure, in long- compared to short-lived mammals. A minimum rate of somatic degradation may ultimately limit the natural life span of mammals. Our results also indicate that senescence and modulating factors like oxidative stress are increasingly important to the fitness of longer lived mammals (and vice versa)

An estimate of carbon emissions from 2004 wildfires across Alaskan Yukon River Basin

© 2007 Tan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

The Effects of Governmental Protected Areas and Social Initiatives for Land Protection on the Conservation of Mexican Amphibians

Traditionally, biodiversity conservation gap analyses have been focused on governmental protected areas (PAs). However, an increasing number of social initiatives in conservation (SICs) are promoting a new perspective for analysis. SICs include all of the efforts that society implements to conserve biodiversity, such as land protection, from private reserves to community zoning plans some of which have generated community-protected areas. This is the first attempt to analyze the status of conservation in Latin America when some of these social initiatives are included. The analyses were focused on amphibians because they are one of the most threatened groups worldwide. Mexico is not an exception, where more than 60% of its amphibians are endemic. We used a niche model approach to map the potential and real geographical distribution (extracting the transformed areas) of the endemic amphibians. Based on remnant distribution, all the species have suffered some degree of loss, but 36 species have lost more than 50% of their potential distribution. For 50 micro-endemic species we could not model their potential distribution range due to the small number of records per species, therefore the analyses were performed using these records directly. We then evaluated the efficiency of the existing set of governmental protected areas and established the contribution of social initiatives (private and community) for land protection for amphibian conservation. We found that most of the species have some proportion of their potential ecological niche distribution protected, but 20% are not protected at all within governmental PAs. 73% of endemic and 26% of micro-endemic amphibians are represented within SICs. However, 30 micro-endemic species are not represented within either governmental PAs or SICs. This study shows how the role of land conservation through social initiatives is therefore becoming a crucial element for an important number of species not protected by governmental PAs

Predicting Coral Species Richness: The Effect of Input Variables, Diversity and Scale

Coral reefs are facing a biodiversity crisis due to increasing human impacts, consequently, one third of reef-building corals have an elevated risk of extinction. Logistic challenges prevent broad-scale species-level monitoring of hard corals; hence it has become critical that effective proxy indicators of species richness are established. This study tests how accurately three potential proxy indicators (generic richness on belt transects, generic richness on point-intercept transects and percent live hard coral cover on point-intercept transects) predict coral species richness at three different locations and two analytical scales. Generic richness (measured on a belt transect) was found to be the most effective predictor variable, with significant positive linear relationships across locations and scales. Percent live hard coral cover consistently performed poorly as anindicator of coral species richness. This study advances the practical framework for optimizing coral reef monitoring programs and empirically demonstrates that generic richness offers an effective way to predict coral species richness with a moderate level of precision. While the accuracy of species richness estimates will decrease in communities dominated byspecies-rich genera (e.g. Acropora), generic richness provides a useful measure of phylogenetic diversity and incorporating this metric into monitoring programs will increase the likelihood that changes in coral species diversity can be detected

Do Stacked Species Distribution Models Reflect Altitudinal Diversity Patterns?

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of stacked species distribution models in predicting the alpha and gamma species diversity patterns of two important plant clades along elevation in the Andes. We modelled the distribution of the species in the Anthurium genus (53 species) and the Bromeliaceae family (89 species) using six modelling techniques. We combined all of the predictions for the same species in ensemble models based on two different criteria: the average of the rescaled predictions by all techniques and the average of the best techniques. The rescaled predictions were then reclassified into binary predictions (presence/absence). By stacking either the original predictions or binary predictions for both ensemble procedures, we obtained four different species richness models per taxa. The gamma and alpha diversity per elevation band (500 m) was also computed. To evaluate the prediction abilities for the four predictions of species richness and gamma diversity, the models were compared with the real data along an elevation gradient that was independently compiled by specialists. Finally, we also tested whether our richness models performed better than a null model of altitudinal changes of diversity based on the literature. Stacking of the ensemble prediction of the individual species models generated richness models that proved to be well correlated with the observed alpha diversity richness patterns along elevation and with the gamma diversity derived from the literature. Overall, these models tend to overpredict species richness. The use of the ensemble predictions from the species models built with different techniques seems very promising for modelling of species assemblages. Stacking of the binary models reduced the over-prediction, although more research is needed. The randomisation test proved to be a promising method for testing the performance of the stacked models, but other implementations may still be developed

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts

Does urbanization explain differences in interactions between an insect herbivore and its natural enemies and mutualists?

Urbanization can alter the composition of arthropod communities. However, little is known about how urbanization affects ecological interactions. Using experimental colonies of the black bean aphid Aphis fabae Scopoli reared on Vicia faba L, we asked if patterns of predator-prey, host-parasitoid and ant-aphid mutualisms varied along an urbanization gradient across a large town in southern England. We recorded the presence of naturally occurring predators, parasitoid wasps and mutualistic ants together with aphid abundance. We examined how biotic (green areas and plant richness) and abiotic features (impervious surfaces and distance to town center) affected (1) aphid colony size, (2) the likelihood of finding predators, mutualistic ants and aphid mummies (indicating the presence of parasitoids), and (3) how the interplay among these factors affected patterns of parasitoid attack, predator abundance, mutualistic interactions and aphid abundance. The best model to predict aphid abundance was the number of mutualistic ants attending the colonies. Aphid predators responded negatively to both the proportion of impervious surfaces and to the number of mutualistic ants farming the colonies, and positively to aphid population size, whereas parasitized aphids were found in colonies with higher numbers of aphids and ants. The number of mutualistic ants attending was positively associated with aphid colony size and negatively with the number of aphid predators. Our findings suggest that for insect-natural enemy interactions, urbanization may affect some groups, while not influencing others, and that local effects (mutualists, host plant presence) will also be key determinants of how urban ecological communities are formed