The future of midlatitude cyclones

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Bilateral optic neuritis as a first presentation of lymph node tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) may affect the nervous system in many ways. We describe an immunocompetent teenage girl with lymph node TB who had first presented with bilateral optic neuritis. Detailed history identified features inconsistent with immune-mediated optic neuritis. Several unusual features prompted further investigation, including transient visual obscurations without raised intracranial pressure, prominent disc swelling and absence of laboratory findings to support an immune-mediated cause. Whole body PET/MR imaging identified widespread mediastinal and supraclavicular lymphadenopathy. Despite no known TB contacts, a negative interferon gamma release assay and a normal chest X-ray, a targeted lymph node biopsy confirmed TB

Revising Pediatric Vancomycin Dosing Accounting for Nephrotoxicity in a Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Model

This study aimed to suggest an initial pediatric vancomycin dose regimen through population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling. A population pharmacokinetic approach was used to analyze vancomycin concentration-time data from a large pediatric cohort. Pharmacokinetic target attainment for patients with bloodstream isolates was compared with clinical outcome using logistic regression and classification and regression trees. Change in serum creatinine during treatment was used as an indicator of acute nephrotoxicity. Probability of acute kidney injury (50% increase from baseline) or kidney failure (75% increase from baseline) was evaluated using logistic regression. An initial dosing regimen was derived, personalized by age, weight, and serum creatinine, using stochastic simulations. Data from 785 hospitalized pediatric patients (1 day to 21 years of age) with suspected Gram-positive infections were collected. Estimated (relative standard error) typical clearance, volume of distribution 1, intercompartmental clearance, and volume of distribution 2 were (standardized to 70 kg) 4.84 (2.38) liters/h, 39.9 (8.15) liters, 3.85 (17.3) liters/h, and 37.8 (10.2) liters, respectively. While cumulative vancomycin exposure correlated positively with the development of nephrotoxicity (713 patients), no clear relationship between vancomycin area under the plasma concentration-time curve and efficacy was found (102 patients). Predicted probability of acute kidney injury and kidney failure with the optimized dosing regimen at day 5 was 10 to 15% and 5 to 10%, increasing by approximately 50% on day 7 and roughly 100% on day 10 across all age groups. This study presents the first data-driven pediatric dose selection to date accounting for nephrotoxicity, and it indicates that cumulative vancomycin exposure best describes risk of acute kidney injury and acute kidney failure

Perturbation drives changing metapopulation dynamics in a top marine predator

Funding: O.E.G. was supported by the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland, funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant no. HR09011). E.L.C. was supported by a Newton Fellowship (Royal Society of London), Marie Curie Fellowship (EU Horizon2020) and a Rutherford Discovery Fellowship (Royal Society of New Zealand). A.J.H. and D.J.F.R. were supportedby NERC (grant no. SMRU 10/001).Metapopulation theory assumes a balance between local decays/extinctions and local growth/new colonisations. Here we investigate whether recent population declines across part of the UK harbour seal range represent normal metapopulation dynamics or are indicative of perturbations potentially threatening the metapopulation viability, using 20 years of population trends, location tracking data (n = 380), and UK-wide, multi-generational population genetic data (n = 269). First, we use microsatellite data to show that two genetic groups previously identified are distinct metapopulations: northern and southern. Then, we characterize the northern metapopulation dynamics in two different periods, before and after the start of regional declines (pre-/peri-perturbation). We identify source-sink dynamics across the northern metapopulation, with two putative source populations apparently supporting three likely sink populations, and a recent metapopulation-wide disruption of migration coincident with the perturbation. The northern metapopulation appears to be in decay, highlighting that changes in local populations can lead to radical alterations in the overall metapopulation's persistence and dynamics.PostprintPeer reviewe

The use of continuous electronic prescribing data to infer trends in antimicrobial consumption and estimate the impact of stewardship interventions in hospitalized children.

BACKGROUND: Understanding antimicrobial consumption is essential to mitigate the development of antimicrobial resistance, yet robust data in children are sparse and methodologically limited. Electronic prescribing systems provide an important opportunity to analyse and report antimicrobial consumption in detail. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the value of electronic prescribing data from a tertiary children's hospital to report temporal trends in antimicrobial consumption in hospitalized children and compare commonly used metrics of antimicrobial consumption. METHODS: Daily measures of antimicrobial consumption [days of therapy (DOT) and DDDs] were derived from the electronic prescribing system between 2010 and 2018. Autoregressive moving-average models were used to infer trends and the estimates were compared with simulated point prevalence surveys (PPSs). RESULTS: More than 1.3 million antimicrobial administrations were analysed. There was significant daily and seasonal variation in overall consumption, which reduced annually by 1.77% (95% CI 0.50% to 3.02%). Relative consumption of meropenem decreased by 6.6% annually (95% CI -3.5% to 15.8%) following the expansion of the hospital antimicrobial stewardship programme. DOT and DDDs exhibited similar trends for most antimicrobials, though inconsistencies were observed where changes to dosage guidelines altered consumption calculation by DDDs, but not DOT. PPS simulations resulted in estimates of change over time, which converged on the model estimates, but with much less precision. CONCLUSIONS: Electronic prescribing systems offer significant opportunities to better understand and report antimicrobial consumption in children. This approach to modelling administration data overcomes the limitations of using interval data and dispensary data. It provides substantially more detailed inferences on prescribing patterns and the potential impact of stewardship interventions

Extra-curricular physical activity and socioeconomic status in Italian adolescents

BACKGROUND: The relationship between physical activity and health status has been thoroughly investigated in several studies, while the relation between physical activity and socio-economic status (SES) is less investigated. The aim of this study was to measure the extra-curricular physical activity of adolescents related to the socio-economic status (SES) of their families. METHODS: The survey was carried out by submitting an anonymous questionnaire to junior high school students in the following Regions: Lazio, Abruzzo, Molise, Campania, Puglia, during the school year 2002–2003. Extra-curriculum physical activity was evaluated considering whether or not present and hours of activity weekly conducted. 2411 students agreed to participate in the study. RESULTS: Participants were 1121 males (46.5%) and 1290 females (53.5%), aged between 11 and 17 years (median age: 12 years). 71.1% of the students reported to practice extra-curricular physical activity. Parents' educational levels and work activities play an important role in predicting students' physical activity, with the more remunerative activities and higher educational levels being more predictive. CONCLUSION: The results confirm the relationship between adolescents' physical activity and their families' SES. In particular, a positive relationship between participation in extra-curricular physical activity and their families high SES was found. These data will be useful for school administrators and for politicians in order to reduce the gap between adolescents from the least and most disadvantaged families

Service employees and self-verification: The roles of occupational stigma consciousness and core self-evaluations

Despite the growing number and importance of service occupations, we know little about how jobholders’ perceptions of societal stigmas of service jobs influence their identification with and attitudes towards work. The present study presents a framework that accords key roles to research on occupational stigma consciousness and the verification of employees’ self-views (i.e. core self-evaluations) to understand employees’ responses to occupational stigmatization. Survey responses from call center employees revealed a negative relationship between occupational stigma consciousness and occupational identification and work meaningfulness and a positive relationship between occupational stigma consciousness and organizational production deviant behaviors for employees who have a positive self-view. Opposite patterns of results surfaced for employees who have a lower positive self-view

Effect of maternal Schistosoma mansoni infection and praziquantel treatment during pregnancy on Schistosoma mansoni infection and immune responsiveness among offspring at age five years.

INTRODUCTION: Offspring of Schistosoma mansoni-infected women in schistosomiasis-endemic areas may be sensitised in-utero. This may influence their immune responsiveness to schistosome infection and schistosomiasis-associated morbidity. Effects of praziquantel treatment of S. mansoni during pregnancy on risk of S. mansoni infection among offspring, and on their immune responsiveness when they become exposed to S. mansoni, are unknown. Here we examined effects of praziquantel treatment of S. mansoni during pregnancy on prevalence of S. mansoni and immune responsiveness among offspring at age five years. METHODS: In a trial in Uganda (ISRCTN32849447, http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN32849447/elliott), offspring of women treated with praziquantel or placebo during pregnancy were examined for S. mansoni infection and for cytokine and antibody responses to SWA and SEA, as well as for T cell expression of FoxP3, at age five years. RESULTS: Of the 1343 children examined, 32 (2.4%) had S. mansoni infection at age five years based on a single stool sample. Infection prevalence did not differ between children of treated or untreated mothers. Cytokine (IFNγ, IL-5, IL-10 and IL-13) and antibody (IgG1, Ig4 and IgE) responses to SWA and SEA, and FoxP3 expression, were higher among infected than uninfected children. Praziquantel treatment of S. mansoni during pregnancy had no effect on immune responses, with the exception of IL-10 responses to SWA, which was higher in offspring of women that received praziquantel during pregnancy than those who did not. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that maternal S. mansoni infection and its treatment during pregnancy influence prevalence and intensity of S. mansoni infection or effector immune response to S. mansoni infection among offspring at age five years, but the observed effects on IL-10 responses to SWA suggest that maternal S. mansoni and its treatment during pregnancy may affect immunoregulatory responsiveness in childhood schistosomiasis. This might have implications for pathogenesis of the disease

Reliability of the modified child and adolescent physical activity and nutrition survey, physical activity (CAPANS-PA) questionnaire among chinese-australian youth

Background : Evidence suggests that differences exist in physical activity (PA) participation among Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) children and adolescents. It is possible that these differences could be influenced by variations in measurement technique and instrument reliability. However, culturally sensitive instruments for examining PA behaviour among CALD populations are lacking. This study tested the reliability of the Child and Adolescent Physical Activity and Nutrition Survey (CAPANS-PA) recall questionnaire among a sample of Chinese-Australian youth.Methods : The psychometric property of the CAPANS-PA questionnaire was examined among a sample of 77 Chinese-Australian youth (aged 11 - 14 y) who completed the questionnaire twice within 7 days. Test-retest reliability of individual items and scales within the CAPANS-PA questionnaire was determined using Kappa statistics for categorical variables and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) for continuous variables.Results : The CAPANS-PA questionnaire demonstrated acceptable test-retest reliability for frequency and duration of time spent in weekly Moderate to Vigorous Physical Activity (MVPA) (ICC &ge; 0.70) for all participants. Test-retest reliability for time spent in weekly sedentary activities was acceptable for females (ICC = 0.82) and males (ICC = 0.72).Conclusions : The results suggest the CAPANS-PA questionnaire provides reliable estimates for type, frequency and duration of MVPA participation among Chinese-Australian youth. Further investigation into the reliability of the sedentary items within the CAPANS-PA is required before these items can be used with confidence. This study is novel in that the reliability of instruments among CALD groups nationally and internationally remains sparse and this study contributes to the wider body of available psychometrically tested instruments. In addition, this study is the first to our knowledge to successfully engage and investigate the basic health enhancing behaviours of Chinese-Australian adolescents.<br /