Weather Simulation of Extreme Precipitation Events Inducing Slope Instability Processes over Mountain Landscapes

Mountain landscapes are characterised by a very variable environment under different points of view (topography, geology, meteorological conditions), and they are frequently affected by mass wasting processes. A debris flow that occurred along the Croso stream, located in the Italian Lepontine Alps in the Northern Ossola Valley, during summer 2019, was analysed from a geological/geomorphological and meteorological point of view. The debris flow was triggered by an intense precipitation event that heavily impacted a very restricted area over the course of three hours. A previous debris flow along the same stream occurred in Autumn 2000, but it was related to an intense and prolonged rainfall event. The slope was characterised in terms of sediment connectivity, and data were retrieved and elaborated from the Web-GIS (Web-Geographic Information System) database of the IFFI-Italian Landslide Inventory and historical archives of landslides. Both the events were analysed through the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model applying a very high horizontal grid spacing with the aim of catching the precipitation patterns and timings. The obtained results are compared with the observed precipitation at a selection of weather stations in the area. The simulation of WRF that measured the timing in total precipitation and in its minor steps could be considered reliable. Moreover, it reveals to be appropriate for detecting in advance the meteorological conditions potentially triggering mass-wasting processes affecting slopes featuring high connectivity conditions and lithotypes characterised by a high Landslide Susceptibility Index

High-Resolution Monthly Precipitation Fields (1913–2015) over a Complex Mountain Area Centred on the Forni Valley (Central Italian Alps)

Mountain environments are extremely influenced by climate change but are also often affected by the lack of long and high-quality meteorological data, especially in glaciated areas, which limits the ability to investigate the acting processes at local scale. For this reason, we checked a method to reconstruct high-resolution spatial distribution and temporal evolution of precipitation. The study area is centred on the Forni Glacier area (Central Italian Alps), where an automatic weather station is present since 2005. We set up a model based on monthly homogenised precipitation series and we spatialised climatologies and anomalies on a 30-arc-second-resolution DEM, using Local Weighted Linear Regression (LWLR) and Regression Kriging (RK) of precipitation versus elevation, in order to test the most suitable approach for this complex terrain area. The comparison shows that LWLR has a better reconstruction ability for winter while RK slightly prevails during summer. The results of precipitation spatialisation were compared with station observations and with data collected at the weather station on Forni Glacier, which were not used to calibrate the model. A very good agreement between observed and modelled precipitation records was pointed out for most station sites. The agreement is lower, but encouraging, for Forni Glacier station data

Fractal Characteristics of May-Grünwald-Giemsa Stained Chromatin Are Independent Prognostic Factors for Survival in Multiple Myeloma

The use of computerized image analysis for the study of nuclear texture features has provided important prognostic information for several neoplasias. Recently fractal characteristics of the chromatin structure in routinely stained smears have shown to be independent prognostic factors in acute leukemia. In the present study we investigated the influence of the fractal dimension (FD) of chromatin on survival of patients with multiple myeloma.We analyzed 67 newly diagnosed patients from our Institution treated in the Brazilian Multiple Myeloma Study Group. Diagnostic work-up consisted of peripheral blood counts, bone marrow cytology, bone radiograms, serum biochemistry and cytogenetics. The International Staging System (ISS) was used. In every patient, at least 40 digital nuclear images from diagnostic May-Grünwald-Giemsa stained bone marrow smears were acquired and transformed into pseudo-3D images. FD was determined by the Minkowski-Bouligand method extended to three dimensions. Goodness-of-fit of FD was estimated by the R(2) values in the log-log plots. The influence of diagnostic features on overall survival was analyzed in Cox regressions. Patients that underwent autologous bone marrow transplantation were censored at the day of transplantation.Median age was 56 years. According to ISS, 14% of the patients were stage I, 39% were stage II and 47% were stage III. Additional features of a bad prognosis were observed in 46% of the cases. When stratifying for ISS, both FD and its goodness-of-fit were significant prognostic factors in univariate analyses. Patients with higher FD values or lower goodness-of-fit showed a worse outcome. In the multivariate Cox-regression, FD, R(2), and ISS stage entered the final model, which showed to be stable in a bootstrap resampling study.Fractal characteristics of the chromatin texture in routine cytological preparations revealed relevant prognostic information in patients with multiple myeloma

Landforms and geomorphosites ongoing changes: Concepts and implications for geoheritage promotion

The promotion of geological and geomorphological heritage is growing in importance for educational initiatives. The constantly increasing interest towards changing landforms due to changing climate conditions asks not only for improving the values of the cultural proposals but also for précising the subject of the discussion. Cultural trails and natural resources valorisation are more and more frequently based on the concept of geomorphosite, which is strictly linked to landform typology definitions. In sensitive areas, changing geomorphosites are considered of great interest as a typical response to changes in climate. In this paper, on the basis of recent research, we discuss the definitions of landforms and geomorphosites activity in relation to surface processes dynamics. In addition, we discuss the implications of geomorphological surface processes for geomorphosite evolution and degradation and their consequent impact on related valorisation activities. We indicate how both active and passive landforms, and therefore geomorphosites, are of great interest for scientific, educational and tourism purposes

Lithological and structural control on Italian mountain geoheritage: opportunities for tourism, outdoor and educational activities

Mountain landscapes are generated by the interplay of endogenous and exogenous processes, whose reciprocal importance changes over times. The Italian relief reflects a high geomorphodiversity and an overview on iconic mountain landscapes, representative of the lithological-structural diversity of the Italian relief, is presented. The study cases, located along Alps and Apennines and in the Sardinia island, are exemplary for the comprehension of the role of the substratum in shaping mountain landscapes and of the deriving risk scenario. Moreover, mountain landscapes are characterized by a high potential for use in terms of: i) ideal open-air natural laboratories for multidisciplinary educational purposes including geological-geomorphological, historical and ecological topics; ii) possibility of specific outdoor activities that take advantage of outdoor sports (e.g., climbing, canyoning, speleology). These feasible and versatile opportunities favour the enhancement of such environments under different perspectives as well as the involvement of local communities and the socio-economic return deriving from mountain geoheritage management