Importance of the Webb, Pearman, and Leuning (WPL) correction for the measurement of small CO2 fluxes

The WPL (Webb, Pearman, and Leuning) correction is fully accepted to correct trace gas fluxes like CO2 for density fluctuations due to water vapour and temperature fluctuations for open-path gas analysers. It is known that this additive correction can be on the order of magnitude of the actual flux. However, this is hardly ever included in the analysis of data quality. An example from the Arctic shows the problems, because the size of the correction is a multiple of the actual flux. As a general result, we examined and tabulated the magnitude of the WPL correction for carbon dioxide flux as a function of sensible and latent heat flux. Furthermore, we propose a parameter to better estimate possible deficits in data quality and recommend integrating the quality flag derived with this parameter into the general study of small carbon dioxide fluxes

Surface energy fluxes during the total solar eclipse over Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, on 20 March 2015

On 20 March 2015, a total solar eclipse occurred over Ny-Ålesund (78.9° N, 11.9° E), Svalbard, under ideal conditions with clear sky. The cycle of the radiation fluxes is comparable with other experiments during eclipses, with even the upward longwave radiation showing significant changes, with a delay to the shortwave radiation and a slowly linear increase after the totality. Also, under polar conditions, an increase of the wind velocity before and a decrease after the totality was found, which is an indicator of the generation of an “Eclipse cyclone”. This change of the wind direction generated a local wind system with a near-surface-layer katabatic flow. During the eclipse, a remarkably large sensible heat flux was observed. The turbulent fluxes were analysed using a wavelet technique with 1-minute time resolution, which is the ideal method for investigating these highly non-steady conditions. No influences on the boundary layer structure as measured with radiosondes were found, with the exception of a wind direction change during the eclipse cyclone below the shallow inversion layer

Surface temperatures and their influence on the permafrost thermal regime in high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard

Permafrost degradation in steep rock walls and associated slope destabilization have been studied increasingly in recent years. While most studies focus on mountainous and sub-Arctic regions, the occurring thermo-mechanical processes also play an important role in the high Arctic. A more precise understanding is required to assess the risk of natural hazards enhanced by permafrost warming in high-Arctic rock walls. This study presents one of the first comprehensive datasets of rock surface temperature measurements of steep rock walls in the high Arctic, comparing coastal and near-coastal settings. We applied the surface energy balance model CryoGrid 3 for evaluation, including adjusted radiative forcing to account for vertical rock walls. Our measurements comprise 4 years of rock surface temperature data from summer 2016 to summer 2020. Mean annual rock surface temperatures ranged from −0.6 in a coastal rock wall in 2017/18 to −4.3 ∘C in a near-coastal rock wall in 2019/20. Our measurements and model results indicate that rock surface temperatures at coastal cliffs are up to 1.5 ∘C higher than at near-coastal rock walls when the fjord is ice-free in winter, resulting from additional energy input due to higher air temperatures at the coast and radiative warming by relatively warm seawater. An ice layer on the fjord counteracts this effect, leading to similar rock surface temperatures to those in near-coastal settings. Our results include a simulated surface energy balance with shortwave radiation as the dominant energy source during spring and summer with net average seasonal values of up to 100 W m−2 and longwave radiation being the main energy loss with net seasonal averages between 16 and 39 W m−2. While sensible heat fluxes can both warm and cool the surface, latent heat fluxes are mostly insignificant. Simulations for future climate conditions result in a warming of rock surface temperatures and a deepening of active layer thickness for both coastal and near-coastal rock walls. Our field data present a unique dataset of rock surface temperatures in steep high-Arctic rock walls, while our model can contribute towards the understanding of factors influencing coastal and near-coastal settings and the associated surface energy balance

Simulating rapid permafrost degradation and erosion processes under a warming climate

Current model approaches used to simulate the degradation of permafrost under a warming climate are highly simplistic since they only consider one-dimensional (top-down) thawing and ignore lateral processes such as soil erosion and mass wasting which are the most abundant forms of thaw in many regions. Thus, current model assessments are most likely far too conservative in their estimates of permafrost thaw impacts (Rowland & Coon, 2015). It therefore remains uncertain how climate warming and permafrost thaw will affect (i) the intensity of erosion and mass wasting processes and (ii) essential ecosystem functions, landscape characteristics, and infrastructure. It also remains unclear (iii) whether any erosion-induced landscape changes further accelerate permafrost thaw. In order to answer these critical questions, land surface models (LSMs) require a new level of realism in order to adequately project permafrost thaw dynamics. Within the PermaRisk project, the permafrost model CryoGrid3 is extended with an erosion scheme that allows to represent lateral mass movement processes within the limited framework of one dimensional LSMs. The new model will be applied and validated at three Arctic sites in Alaska, Canada, and northern Siberia. Furthermore, 21st century climate impact projections for the key sites are scheduled as a basis for thorough risk analyses concerning potential damages to critical ecosystem functions/services and infrastructure. We will present first simulations on rapid permafrost degradation processes with a special focus on thaw slumps at a test site in northern Canada. We expect the results to demonstrate the capabilities and the limitations of the new model

Modeling Permafrost Sensitivity in Arctic Forest

Deciduous larch is a weak competitor when growing in mixed stands with evergreen taxa but is dominant in many boreal forest areas of Eastern Siberia. However, it is hypothesized that certain factors such as a shallow active layer thickness and high fire frequency favor larch dominance. Our aim is to understand how thermohydrological interactions between vegetation, permafrost, and atmosphere stabilize the larch forests and the underlying permafrost in Eastern Siberia. A tailored version of a one-dimensional land surface model (CryoGrid) is adapted for the application in vegetated areas and used to reproduce the energy transfer and thermal regime of permafrost ground in typical boreal larch stands. In order to simulate the responds of Arctic trees to local climate and permafrost conditions we have implemented a multilayer canopy parameterization originally developed for the Community Land Model (CLM-ml_v0). The coupled model is capable of calculating the full energy balance above, within and below the canopy including the radiation budget, the turbulent fluxes and the heat budget of the permafrost ground under several forcing scenarios. We will present first results of simulations performed for different study sites in larch-dominated forests of Eastern Siberia and Mongolia under current and future climate conditions. Model performance is thoroughly evaluated based on comprehensive in-situ soil temperature and radiation measurements at our study sites

Explicitly modelling microtopography in permafrost landscapes in a land surface model (JULES vn5.4_microtopography)

Microtopography can be a key driver of heterogeneity in the ground thermal and hydrological regime of permafrost landscapes. In turn, this heterogeneity can influence plant communities, methane fluxes, and the initiation of abrupt thaw processes. Here we have implemented a two-tile representation of microtopography in JULES (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator), where tiles are representative of repeating patterns of elevation difference. Tiles are coupled by lateral flows of water, heat, and redistribution of snow, and a surface water store is added to represent ponding. Simulations are performed of two Siberian polygon sites, (Samoylov and Kytalyk) and two Scandinavian palsa sites (Stordalen and Iškoras). The model represents the observed differences between greater snow depth in hollows vs. raised areas well. The model also improves soil moisture for hollows vs. the non-tiled configuration (“standard JULES”) though the raised tile remains drier than observed. The modelled differences in snow depths and soil moisture between tiles result in the lower tile soil temperatures being warmer for palsa sites, as in reality. However, when comparing the soil temperatures for July at 20 cm depth, the difference in temperature between tiles, or “temperature splitting”, is smaller than observed (3.2 vs. 5.5 ∘C). Polygons display small (0.2 ∘C) to zero temperature splitting, in agreement with observations. Consequently, methane fluxes are near identical (+0 % to 9 %) to those for standard JULES for polygons, although they can be greater than standard JULES for palsa sites (+10 % to 49 %). Through a sensitivity analysis we quantify the relative importance of model processes with respect to soil moisture and temperatures, identifying which parameters result in the greatest uncertainty in modelled temperature. Varying the palsa elevation between 0.5 and 3 m has little effect on modelled soil temperatures, showing that using only two tiles can still be a valid representation of sites with a range of palsa elevations. Mire saturation is heavily dependent on landscape-scale drainage. Lateral conductive fluxes, while small, reduce the temperature splitting by ∼ 1 ∘C and correspond to the order of observed lateral degradation rates in peat plateau regions, indicating possible application in an area-based thaw model

Racial Differences in Treatments and Toxicity in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated with Thoracic Radiation Therapy

Background: Racial disparities are of particular concern for lung cancer patients given historical differences in surgery rates for African-American lung cancer patients that resulted in lower overall survival and higher recurrence rates compared with rates in White patients. Objectives: The overall objective of this study was to examine racial differences in thoracic radiation therapy (RT) treatments and toxicities in a large cohort of patients from a multi-institutional consortium database of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Methods: A large multi-institutional statewide prospectively collected patient-level database of locally advanced (stage II or III) NSCLC patients who received thoracic RT from March 2012 to November 2019 was analyzed to assess the associations between race and treatment and toxicity variables. Race (White or African-American) was defined by patient self-report or if not available then by the electronic medical record system classification. Race categories other than White or African-American comprised a small minority of patients and were excluded from this analysis. Patient-reported toxicity was determined by validated tools including the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Lung (FACT-L) quality of life instrument. Provider-reported toxicity was determined by the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) version 4.0. Uni-variable and multi-variable regression models were then fitted to assess relationships between primary outcomes by race and indicators of high-quality treatment and secondary analysis of symptoms. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were calculated between provider reported toxicity and similar patient reported outcomes for each race category. Results: A total of 1441 patients from 24 institutions with mean age of 68 years (range 38-94) were evaluated; 226 patients were African-American, of whom 61% were treated at three facilities. Race was not significantly associated with RT treatment approach, use of concurrent chemotherapy, or the dose to the planning target volume (PTV) or organs at risk including the heart and lungs. However, there was increased patient-reported general pain in African-American patients (compared with White patients) at several time points including pre-RT (22% (vs 15%), P=0.02) and at the end of RT (30% (vs 17%), P=0.001). African-American patients were significantly less likely to have provider-reported grade 2+ radiation pneumonitis (odds ratio (OR) 0.36, P=0.03), despite similar levels of patient-reported respiratory toxicities such as cough and shortness of breath and even after controlling for known patient and treatment-related factors. Correlation coefficients between provider- and patient-reported toxicities were generally similar across race categories. Conclusions: In this large multi-institutional observational study, we reassuringly found no evidence of differences in radiation treatment or chemotherapy approaches by race, in contrast to historical differences by race in surgical care that led to worse survival and outcomes in minority race patients. However, we did unexpectedly find that African-American race was associated with lower odds of provider-reported grade 2+ radiation pneumonitis despite similar patient-reported toxicities of shortness of breath and cough. There are several possibilities for this finding including that pneumonitis is a multifactorial diagnosis that relies on clinical as well as radiologic information and clinical information alone may be insufficient. The Spearman correlation analysis also revealed stronger correlations between patient- and provider-reported toxicities in White patients compared with African-American patients, particularly for trouble swallowing/esophagitis. These findings together for pneumonitis and esophagitis discouragingly suggest possible under-recognition of symptoms in black patients. Further investigation is now warranted to better understand how these findings impact the care of racially diverse lung cancer patients

Permafrost is warming at a global scale

Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged