Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies

We investigate the connection between commodity price shocks and unemployment in advanced resource-rich small open economies from an empirical and theoretical perspective. Shocks to commodity prices are shown to influence labour market conditions primarily through the real exchange rate contrasting sharply with the transmission of technology shocks which are typically argued to affect the economy by changing labour productivity. The empirical impact of commodity price shocks is obtained from estimating a panel vector autoregression; a positive price shock is found to be expansionary for the components of GDP, causes the real exchange rate to appreciate, and improves labour market conditions. For every one percent increase in commodity prices, our estimates suggest a one basis point decline in the unemployment rate and at its peak a 0.3% increase in unfilled vacancies. We then match the impulse responses to a commodity price shock from a small open economy model with net commodity exports and search and matching frictions in the labour market to these empirical responses. As in the data, an increase in commodity prices raises consumption demand in the small open economy and induces a real appreciation. Facing higher relative prices for their goods, non-commodity producing firms post additional job vacancies, causing the number of matches between firms and workers to rise. As a result, unemployment falls, even if employment in the commodity-producing sector is negligible. For commodity price shocks, there is little difference between the standard Diamond (1982), Mortensen (1982), and Pissarides (1985) approach of modelling search and matching frictions and the alternating offer bargaining model suggested by Hall and Milgrom (2008)

Economic and Epidemiological Effects of Mandated and Spontaneous Social Distancing

Based on a standard epidemiological model, we derive and apply empirical tests of the hypothesis that contacts, as proxied by mobility data, have an effect on the spread of the coronavirus epidemic, as summarized by the reproduction rates, and on economic activity, as captured by subsequent initial claims to unemployment benefits. We show that changes in mobility through the first quarters of 2020, be it spontaneous or mandated, had significant effects on both the spread of the coronavirus and the economy. Strikingly, we find that spontaneous social distancing was no less costly than mandated social distancing. Our results suggest that the rebound in economic activity when stay-at-home orders were lifted was primarily driven by the improvement in epidemiological parameters. In other words, without the reduction in the reproduction rate of the coronavirus, we could have expected a doubling down on spontaneous social distancing

The Elusive Gains from Nationally-Oriented Monetary Policy

The consensus in the recent literature is that the gains from international monetary cooperation are negligible, and so are the costs of a breakdown in cooperation. However, when assessed conditionally on empirically-relevant dynamic developments of the economy, the welfare cost of moving away from regimes of explicit or implicit cooperation may rise to multiple times the cost of economic fluctuations. In economies with incomplete markets, the incentives to act non-cooperatively are driven by the emergence of global imbalances, i.e., large net-foreign-asset positions; and, in economies with complete markets, by divergent real wages

Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies

We show that a model of an advanced small open economy with exports in commodities and search and matching frictions in the labour market can match the impulse responses from a panel vector autoregression to an identified commodity price shock. Using a minimum distance strategy, we find that international financial risk sharing is low even for advanced small open economies. Moreover, a strong real exchange rate appreciation is key for an unexpected commodity price increase to induce a tightening of labour market conditions in the model that is in line with the empirical evidence. As in the case of technology shocks discussed by Shimer (2005), proper amplification of the commodity price shock requires a high value of the outside option for unemployed agents. However, vacancies and unemployment hardly respond whenever the real exchange rate channel is mute. These findings suggest the relevance of the open economy dimension for the transmission of demand-type shocks to the labour market more generally

Design and operation of a prototype interaction point beam collision feedback system for the International Linear Collider

A high-resolution, intratrain position feedback system has been developed to achieve and maintain collisions at the proposed future electron-positron International Linear Collider (ILC). A prototype has been commissioned and tested with a beam in the extraction line of the Accelerator Test Facility at the High Energy Accelerator Research Organization in Japan. It consists of a stripline beam position monitor (BPM) with analogue signal-processing electronics, a custom digital board to perform the feedback calculation, and a stripline kicker driven by a high-current amplifier. The closed-loop feedback latency is 148 ns. For a three-bunch train with 154 ns bunch spacing, the feedback system has been used to stabilize the third bunch to 450 nm. The kicker response is linear, and the feedback performance is maintained, over a correction range of over $\pm$60 {\mu}m. The propagation of the correction has been confirmed by using an independent stripline BPM located downstream of the feedback system. The system has been demonstrated to meet the BPM resolution, beam kick, and latency requirements for the ILC

B meson decay constants f(Bc), f(Bs) and f(B) from QCD sum rules

Finite energy QCD sum rules with Legendre polynomial integration kernels are used to determine the heavy meson decay constant f(Bc), and revisit f(B) and f(Bs). Results exhibit excellent stability in a wide range of values of the integration radius in the complex squared energy plane, and of the order of the Legendre polynomial. Results are f(Bc) = 528 +/- 19 MeV, f(B) = 186 +/- 14 MeV, and f(Bs) = 222 +/- 12 MeV

Precise Charm- and Bottom-Quark Masses: Theoretical and Experimental Uncertainties

Recent theoretical and experimental improvements in the determination of charm and bottom quark masses are discussed. A new and improved evaluation of the contribution from the gluon condensate $$ to the charm mass determination and a detailed study of potential uncertainties in the continuum cross section for $b\bar b$ production is presented, together with a study of the parametric uncertainty from the $\alpha_s$-dependence of our results. The final results, $m_c(3 \text{GeV})=986(13)$MeV and $m_b(m_b)=4163(16)$MeV, represent, together with a closely related lattice determination $m_c(3\;{\rm GeV})=986(6)$MeV, the presently most precise determinations of these two fundamental Standard Model parameters. A critical analysis of the theoretical and experimental uncertainties is presented.Comment: 12 pages, presented at Quarks~2010, 16th International Seminar of High Energy Physics, Kolomna, Russia, June 6-12, 2010; v2: references adde

Higgs and non-universal gaugino masses: no SUSY signal expected yet?

So far, no supersymmetric particles have been detected at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). However, the recent Higgs results have interesting implications for the SUSY parameter space. In this paper, we study the consequences of an LHC Higgs signal for a model with non-universal gaugino masses in the context of SU(5) unification. The gaugino mass ratios associated with the higher representations produce viable spectra that are largely inaccessible to the current LHC and direct dark matter detection experiments. Thus, in light of the Higgs results, the non-observation of SUSY is no surprise.Comment: supplementary file containing plots with log priors in ancillary files. v2: added some comments on more general settings and references, accepted for publication in JHE

A cryopreserved sperm repository strategy for WorldFish genetically improved carp

This report identifies key stakeholders and pathways for the use of cryopreserved sperm repository technology for carp genetic improvement and dissemination in Bangladesh. Relationship mapping has been used to delineate relationships among suppliers, producers, and customers and their facilities