Prediction and causal reasoning in planning

Nonlinear planners are often touted as having an efficiency advantage over linear planners. The reason usually given is that nonlinear planners, unlike their linear counterparts, are not forced to make arbitrary commitments to the order in which actions are to be performed. This ability to delay commitment enables nonlinear planners to solve certain problems with far less effort than would be required of linear planners. Here, it is argued that this advantage is bought with a significant reduction in the ability of a nonlinear planner to accurately predict the consequences of actions. Unfortunately, the general problem of predicting the consequences of a partially ordered set of actions is intractable. In gaining the predictive power of linear planners, nonlinear planners sacrifice their efficiency advantage. There are, however, other advantages to nonlinear planning (e.g., the ability to reason about partial orders and incomplete information) that make it well worth the effort needed to extend nonlinear methods. A framework is supplied for causal inference that supports reasoning about partially ordered events and actions whose effects depend upon the context in which they are executed. As an alternative to a complete but potentially exponential-time algorithm, researchers provide a provably sound polynomial-time algorithm for predicting the consequences of partially ordered events

How Decoherence Affects the Probability of Slow-Roll Eternal Inflation

Slow-roll inflation can become eternal if the quantum variance of the inflaton field around its slowly rolling classical trajectory is converted into a distribution of classical spacetimes inflating at different rates, and if the variance is large enough compared to the rate of classical rolling that the probability of an increased rate of expansion is sufficiently high. Both of these criteria depend sensitively on whether and how perturbation modes of the inflaton interact and decohere. Decoherence is inevitable as a result of gravitationally-sourced interactions whose strength are proportional to the slow-roll parameters. However, the weakness of these interactions means that decoherence is typically delayed until several Hubble times after modes grow beyond the Hubble scale. We present perturbative evidence that decoherence of long-wavelength inflaton modes indeed leads to an ensemble of classical spacetimes with differing cosmological evolutions. We introduce the notion of per-branch observables---expectation values with respect to the different decohered branches of the wave function---and show that the evolution of modes on individual branches varies from branch to branch. Thus single-field slow-roll inflation fulfills the quantum-mechanical criteria required for the validity of the standard picture of eternal inflation. For a given potential, the delayed decoherence can lead to slight quantitative adjustments to the regime in which the inflaton undergoes eternal inflation.Comment: 27 pages, 3 figures; v2 reflects peer review process and has new results in Section

Why Boltzmann Brains Don't Fluctuate Into Existence From the De Sitter Vacuum

Many modern cosmological scenarios feature large volumes of spacetime in a de Sitter vacuum phase. Such models are said to be faced with a "Boltzmann Brain problem" - the overwhelming majority of observers with fixed local conditions are random fluctuations in the de Sitter vacuum, rather than arising via thermodynamically sensible evolution from a low-entropy past. We argue that this worry can be straightforwardly avoided in the Many-Worlds (Everett) approach to quantum mechanics, as long as the underlying Hilbert space is infinite-dimensional. In that case, de Sitter settles into a truly stationary quantum vacuum state. While there would be a nonzero probability for observing Boltzmann-Brain-like fluctuations in such a state, "observation" refers to a specific kind of dynamical process that does not occur in the vacuum (which is, after all, time-independent). Observers are necessarily out-of-equilibrium physical systems, which are absent in the vacuum. Hence, the fact that projection operators corresponding to states with observers in them do not annihilate the vacuum does not imply that such observers actually come into existence. The Boltzmann Brain problem is therefore much less generic than has been supposed.Comment: Based on a talk given by SMC at, and to appear in the proceedings of, the Philosophy of Cosmology conference in Tenerife, September 201

De Sitter Space Without Dynamical Quantum Fluctuations

We argue that, under certain plausible assumptions, de Sitter space settles into a quiescent vacuum in which there are no dynamical quantum fluctuations. Such fluctuations require either an evolving microstate, or time-dependent histories of out-of-equilibrium recording devices, which we argue are absent in stationary states. For a massive scalar field in a fixed de Sitter background, the cosmic no-hair theorem implies that the state of the patch approaches the vacuum, where there are no fluctuations. We argue that an analogous conclusion holds whenever a patch of de Sitter is embedded in a larger theory with an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space, including semiclassical quantum gravity with false vacua or complementarity in theories with at least one Minkowski vacuum. This reasoning provides an escape from the Boltzmann brain problem in such theories. It also implies that vacuum states do not uptunnel to higher-energy vacua and that perturbations do not decohere while slow-roll inflation occurs, suggesting that eternal inflation is much less common than often supposed. On the other hand, if a de Sitter patch is a closed system with a finite-dimensional Hilbert space, there will be Poincare recurrences and dynamical Boltzmann fluctuations into lower-entropy states. Our analysis does not alter the conventional understanding of the origin of density fluctuations from primordial inflation, since reheating naturally generates a high-entropy environment and leads to decoherence, nor does it affect the existence of non-dynamical vacuum fluctuations such as those that give rise to the Casimir effect.Comment: version accepted for publication in Foundations of Physic

Imperfect Match: PDDL 2.1 and Real Applications

PDDL was originally conceived and constructed as a lingua franca for the International Planning Competition. PDDL2.1 embodies a set of extensions intended to support the expression of something closer to real planning problems. This objective has only been partially achieved, due in large part to a deliberate focus on not moving too far from classical planning models and solution methods

Contextual organismality: Beyond pattern to process in the emergence of organisms

Biologists have taken the concept of organism largely for granted. However, advances in the study of chimerism, symbiosis, bacterial-eukaryote associations, and microbial behavior have prompted a redefinition of organisms as biological entities exhibiting low conflict and high cooperation among their parts. This expanded view identifies organisms in evolutionary time. However, the ecological processes, mechanisms, and traits that drive the formation of organisms remain poorly understood. Recognizing that organismality can be context dependent, we advocate elucidating the ecological contexts under which entities do or do not act as organisms. Here we develop a "contextual organismality" framework and provide examples of entities, such as honey bee colonies, tumors, and bacterial swarms, that can act as organisms under specific life history, resource, or other ecological circumstances. We suggest that context dependence may be a stepping stone to the development of increased organismal unification, as the most integrated biological entities generally show little context dependence. Recognizing that organismality is contextual can identify common patterns and testable hypotheses across different entities. The contextual organismality framework can illuminate timeless as well as pressing issues in biology, including topics as disparate as cancer emergence, genomic conflict, evolution of symbiosis, and the role of the microbiota in impacting host phenotype.John Templeton FoundationVersion of record online: 27 October 2016; published open access.This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

SIMPle Dark Matter: Self-Interactions and keV Lines

We consider a simple supersymmetric hidden sector: pure SU(N) gauge theory. Dark matter is made up of hidden glueballinos with mass $m_X$ and hidden glueballs with mass near the confinement scale $\Lambda$. For $m_X \sim 1\,\text{TeV}$ and $\Lambda \sim 100\,\text{MeV}$, the glueballinos freeze out with the correct relic density and self-interact through glueball exchange to resolve small-scale structure puzzles. An immediate consequence is that the glueballino spectrum has a hyperfine splitting of order $\Lambda^2 / m_X \sim 10\,\text{keV}$. We show that the radiative decays of the excited state can explain the observed 3.5 keV X-ray line signal from clusters of galaxies, Andromeda, and the Milky Way.Comment: v1: 6 pages, 2 figures; v2: added references, published version; v3: note adde

Asking the experts : developing and validating parental diaries to assess children's minor injuries

The methodological issues involved in parental reporting of events in children's everyday lives are discussed with reference to the development and validation of an incident diary, collecting concurrent data on minor injuries in a community study of children under eight years old. Eighty-two mothers participated in a comparison over nine days of daily telephone interviews and structured incident diaries. Telephone methods resulted in more missing data, and participants in both groups expressed a preference for the diary method. This diary was then validated on a sample of 56 preschool and school-aged children by comparing injury recording by a research health visitor with that of their mothers. Each failed to report some injuries, but there was good agreement overall, and in descriptive data on injuries reported by both. Parental diaries have the potential to provide rich data, of acceptable validity, on minor events in everyday life

Decomposition of coarse woody debris in a long-term litter manipulation experiment: A focus on nutrient availability

The majority of above-ground carbon in tropical forests is stored in wood, which is returned to the atmosphere during decomposition of coarse woody debris. However, the factors controlling wood decomposition have not been experimentally manipulated over time scales comparable to the length of this process.We hypothesized that wood decomposition is limited by nutrient availability and tested this hypothesis in a long-term litter addition and removal experiment in a lowland tropical forest in Panama. Specifically, we quantified decomposition using a 15-year chronosequence of decaying boles, and measured respiration rates and nutrient limitation of wood decomposer communities.The long-term probability that a dead tree completely decomposed was decreased in plots where litter was removed, but did not differ between litter addition and control treatments. Similarly, respiration rates of wood decomposer communities were greater in control treatments relative to litter removal plots; litter addition treatments did not differ from either of the other treatments. Respiration rates increased in response to nutrient addition (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) in the litter removal and addition treatments, but not in the controls.Established decreases in concentrations of soil nutrients in litter removal plots and increased respiration rates in response to nutrient addition suggest that reduced rates of wood decomposition after litter removal were caused by decreased nutrient availability. The effects of litter manipulations differed directionally from a previous short-term decomposition study in the same plots, and reduced rates of bole decomposition in litter removal plots did not emerge until after more than 6 years of decomposition. These differences suggest that litter-mediated effects on nutrient dynamics have complex interactions with decomposition over time

Extreme managers, extreme workplaces: capitalism, organizations and corporate psychopaths

This paper reports on in-depth, qualitative research carried out in England in 2013 among five organizational directors and two senior managers who had worked with other senior directors or managers who were Corporate Psychopaths, as measured by a management psychopathy measure. The Corporate Psychopaths reported on in this research displayed remarkable consistency in their approach to management to the extent that they could be called “text book examples” of managerial psychopathy. They were seen as being organizational stars and as deserving of performance awards by those above them, while the Corporate Psychopaths simultaneously subjected those below them to extreme forms of behavior, including bullying, intimidation and coercion and also engaged in extreme forms of mismanagement; such as very poor levels of personnel management, directionless leadership, miss-management of resources and outright fraud