A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations.

We analyse the impact of a policy decision on crop rotations, using the imprecise land use model that was developed by the authors in earlier work. A specific challenge in crop rotation models is that farmer’s crop choices are driven by both policy changes and external non-stationary factors, such as rainfall, temperature and agricultural input and output prices. Such dynamics can be modelled by a non-stationary stochastic process, where crop transition probabilities are multinomial logistic functions of such external factors. We use a robust Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of our model, and validate it by comparing the model response with a non-parametric estimate, as well as by cross validation. Finally, we use the resulting predictions to solve a hypothetical yet realistic policy problem

A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations

We analyse the impact of a policy decision on crop rotations, using the imprecise land use model that was developed by the authors in earlier work. A specific challenge in crop rotation models is that farmer’s crop choices are driven by both policy changes and external non-stationary factors, such as rainfall, temperature and agricultural input and output prices. Such dynamics can be modelled by a non-stationary stochastic process, where crop transition probabilities are multinomial logistic functions of such external factors. We use a robust Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of our model, and validate it by comparing the model response with a non-parametric estimate, as well as by cross validation. Finally, we use the resulting predictions to solve a hypothetical yet realistic policy problem

Sea anemones may thrive in a high CO2 world

Increased seawater pCO 2, and in turn 'ocean acidification' (OA), is predicted to profoundly impact marine ecosystem diversity and function this century. Much research has already focussed on calcifying reef-forming corals (Class: Anthozoa) that appear particularly susceptible to OA via reduced net calcification. However, here we show that OA-like conditions can simultaneously enhance the ecological success of non-calcifying anthozoans, which not only play key ecological and biogeochemical roles in present day benthic ecosystems but also represent a model organism should calcifying anthozoans exist as less calcified (soft-bodied) forms in future oceans. Increased growth (abundance and size) of the sea anemone (Anemonia viridis) population was observed along a natural CO 2 gradient at Vulcano, Italy. Both gross photosynthesis (P G) and respiration (R) increased with pCO 2 indicating that the increased growth was, at least in part, fuelled by bottom up (CO 2 stimulation) of metabolism. The increase of P G outweighed that of R and the genetic identity of the symbiotic microalgae (Symbiodinium spp.) remained unchanged (type A19) suggesting proximity to the vent site relieved CO 2 limitation of the anemones' symbiotic microalgal population. Our observations of enhanced productivity with pCO 2, which are consistent with previous reports for some calcifying corals, convey an increase in fitness that may enable non-calcifying anthozoans to thrive in future environments, i.e. higher seawater pCO 2. Understanding how CO 2-enhanced productivity of non- (and less-) calcifying anthozoans applies more widely to tropical ecosystems is a priority where such organisms can dominate benthic ecosystems, in particular following localized anthropogenic stress. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Common variants in signaling transcription-factor-binding sites drive phenotypic variability in red blood cell traits

Genome-wide association studies identify genomic variants associated with human traits and diseases. Most trait-associated variants are located within cell-type-specific enhancers, but the molecular mechanisms governing phenotypic variation are less well understood. Here, we show that many enhancer variants associated with red blood cell (RBC) traits map to enhancers that are co-bound by lineage-specific master transcription factors (MTFs) and signaling transcription factors (STFs) responsive to extracellular signals. The majority of enhancer variants reside on STF and not MTF motifs, perturbing DNA binding by various STFs (BMP/TGF-β-directed SMADs or WNT-induced TCFs) and affecting target gene expression. Analyses of engineered human blood cells and expression quantitative trait loci verify that disrupted STF binding leads to altered gene expression. Our results propose that the majority of the RBC-trait-associated variants that reside on transcription-factor-binding sequences fall in STF target sequences, suggesting that the phenotypic variation of RBC traits could stem from altered responsiveness to extracellular stimuli

Role of Carbonic Anhydrase IV in the Bicarbonate-Mediated Activation of Murine and Human Sperm

HCO3− is the signal for early activation of sperm motility. In vivo, this occurs when sperm come into contact with the HCO3− containing fluids in the reproductive tract. The activated motility enables sperm to travel the long distance to the ovum. In spermatozoa HCO3− stimulates the atypical sperm adenylyl cyclase (sAC) to promote the cAMP-mediated pathway that increases flagellar beat frequency. Stimulation of sAC may occur when HCO3− enters spermatozoa either directly by anion transport or indirectly via diffusion of CO2 with subsequent hydration by intracellular carbonic anhydrase (CA). We here show that murine sperm possess extracellular CA IV that is transferred to the sperm surface as the sperm pass through the epididymis. Comparison of CA IV expression by qRT PCR analysis confirms that the transfer takes place in the corpus epididymidis. We demonstrate murine and human sperm respond to CO2 with an increase in beat frequency, an effect that can be inhibited by ethoxyzolamide. Comparing CA activity in sperm from wild-type and CA IV−/− mice we found a 32.13% reduction in total CA activity in the latter. The CA IV−/− sperm also have a reduced response to CO2. While the beat frequency of wild-type sperm increases from 2.86±0.12 Hz to 6.87±0.34 Hz after CO2 application, beat frequency of CA IV−/− sperm only increases from 3.06±0.20 Hz to 5.29±0.47 Hz. We show, for the first time, a physiological role of CA IV that supplies sperm with HCO3−, which is necessary for stimulation of sAC and hence early activation of spermatozoa

Protecting an ecosystem service: approaches to understanding and mitigating threats to wild insect pollinators

Insect pollination constitutes an ecosystem service of global importance, providing significant economic and aesthetic benefits as well as cultural value to human society, alongside vital ecological processes in terrestrial ecosystems. It is therefore important to understand how insect pollinator populations and communities respond to rapidly changing environments if we are to maintain healthy and effective pollinator services. This paper considers the importance of conserving pollinator diversity to maintain a suite of functional traits to provide a diverse set of pollinator services. We explore how we can better understand and mitigate the factors that threaten insect pollinator richness, placing our discussion within the context of populations in predominantly agricultural landscapes in addition to urban environments. We highlight a selection of important evidence gaps, with a number of complementary research steps that can be taken to better understand: i) the stability of pollinator communities in different landscapes in order to provide diverse pollinator services; ii) how we can study the drivers of population change to mitigate the effects and support stable sources of pollinator services; and, iii) how we can manage habitats in complex landscapes to support insect pollinators and provide sustainable pollinator services for the future. We advocate a collaborative effort to gain higher quality abundance data to understand the stability of pollinator populations and predict future trends. In addition, for effective mitigation strategies to be adopted, researchers need to conduct rigorous field-testing of outcomes under different landscape settings, acknowledge the needs of end-users when developing research proposals and consider effective methods of knowledge transfer to ensure effective uptake of actions

A counterfactual approach to measure the impact of wet grassland conservation on UK breeding bird populations

Wet grassland wader populations in the United Kingdom have experienced severe declines over the last three decades. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact that these reserves have on bird population trends has not been experimentally evaluated, as appropriate control populations do not readily exist. In this study, we compare population trends from 1994 ‐ 2018 for five bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends using matched breeding bird survey observations. Our results showed positive effects of conservation interventions for all four wader species that these reserves aim to benefit: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata) and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). We compared reserve trends with three different counterfactuals, based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation, and found that reserve trends performed better regardless of the counterfactual used. Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large‐scale evaluation of conservation impact