Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble Kalman filter and the Norwegian Earth System Model: a twin experiment

Here, we firstly demonstrate the potential of an advanced flow dependent data assimilation method for performing seasonal-to-decadal prediction and secondly, reassess the use of sea surface temperature (SST) for initialisation of these forecasts. We use the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM), which is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) and uses the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to assimilate observations. NorESM is a fully coupled system based on the Community Earth System Model version 1, which includes an ocean, an atmosphere, a sea ice and a land model. A numerically efficient coarse resolution version of NorESM is used. We employ a twin experiment methodology to provide an upper estimate of predictability in our model framework (i.e. without considering model bias) of NorCPM that assimilates synthetic monthly SST data (EnKF-SST). The accuracy of EnKF-SST is compared to an unconstrained ensemble run (FREE) and ensemble predictions made with near perfect (i.e. microscopic SST perturbation) initial conditions (PERFECT). We perform 10 cycles, each consisting of a 10-yr assimilation phase, followed by a 10-yr prediction. The results indicate that EnKF-SST improves sea level, ice concentration, 2 m atmospheric temperature, precipitation and 3-D hydrography compared to FREE. Improvements for the hydrography are largest near the surface and are retained for longer periods at depth. Benefits in salinity are retained for longer periods compared to temperature. Near-surface improvements are largest in the tropics, while improvements at intermediate depths are found in regions of large-scale currents, regions of deep convection, and at the Mediterranean Sea outflow. However, the benefits are often small compared to PERFECT, in particular, at depth suggesting that more observations should be assimilated in addition to SST. The EnKF-SST system is also tested for standard ocean circulation indices and demonstrates decadal predictability for Atlantic overturning and sub-polar gyre circulations, and heat content in the Nordic Seas. The system beats persistence forecast and shows skill for heat content in the Nordic Seas that is close to PERFECT

The role of salinity in the decadal variability of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 33 (2009): 777-793, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0523-2.An OGCM hindcast is used to investigate the linkages between North Atlantic Ocean salinity and circulation changes during 1963–2003. The focus is on the eastern subpolar region consisting of the Irminger Sea and the eastern North Atlantic where a careful assessment shows that the simulated interannual to decadal salinity changes in the upper 1500 m reproduce well those derived from the available record of hydrographic measurements. In the model, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is primarily driven by changes in deep water formation taking place in the Irminger Sea and, to a lesser extent, the Labrador Sea. Both are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The modeled interannual to decadal salinity changes in the subpolar basins are mostly controlled by circulation-driven anomalies of freshwater flux convergence, although surface salinity restoring to climatology and other boundary fluxes each account for approximately 25% of the variance. The NAO plays an important role: a positive NAO phase is associated with increased precipitation, reduced northward salt transport by the wind-driven intergyre gyre, and increased southward flows of freshwater across the Greenland-Scotland ridge. Since the NAO largely controlled deep convection in the subpolar gyre, fresher waters are found near the sinking region during convective events. This markedly differs from the active influence on the MOC that salinity exerts at decadal and longer timescales in most coupled models. The intensification of the MOC that follows a positive NAO phase by about 2 years does not lead to an increase in the northward salt transport into the subpolar domain at low frequencies because it is cancelled by the concomitant intensification of the subpolar gyre which shifts the subpolar front eastward and reduces the northward salt transport by the North Atlantic Current waters. This differs again from most coupled models, where the gyre intensification precedes that of the MOC by several years.Support from NSF Grant 82677800 with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and (to CF) from the Institut universitaire de France and European FP6 project DYNAMITE (contract 003903-GOCE) and (to JD) from the NOAA Office of Hydrologic Development through a scientific appointment administered by UCAR is gratefully acknowledged

Cerebrovascular Autoregulation Monitoring in the Management of Adult Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: A Delphi Consensus of Clinicians

Abstract: Background: Several methods have been proposed to measure cerebrovascular autoregulation (CA) in traumatic brain injury (TBI), but the lack of a gold standard and the absence of prospective clinical data on risks, impact on care and outcomes of implementation of CA-guided management lead to uncertainty. Aim: To formulate statements using a Delphi consensus approach employing a group of expert clinicians, that reflect current knowledge of CA, aspects that can be implemented in TBI management and CA research priorities. Methods: A group of 25 international academic experts with clinical expertise in the management of adult severe TBI patients participated in this consensus process. Seventy-seven statements and multiple-choice questions were submitted to the group in two online surveys, followed by a face-to-face meeting and a third online survey. Participants received feedback on average scores and the rationale for resubmission or rephrasing of statements. Consensus on a statement was defined as agreement of more than 75% of participants. Results: Consensus amongst participants was achieved on the importance of CA status in adult severe TBI pathophysiology, the dynamic non-binary nature of CA impairment, its association with outcome and the inadvisability of employing universal and absolute cerebral perfusion pressure targets. Consensus could not be reached on the accuracy, reliability and validation of any current CA assessment method. There was also no consensus on how to implement CA information in clinical management protocols, reflecting insufficient clinical evidence. Conclusion: The Delphi process resulted in 25 consensus statements addressing the pathophysiology of impaired CA, and its impact on cerebral perfusion pressure targets and outcome. A research agenda was proposed emphasizing the need for better validated CA assessment methods as well as the focused investigation of the application of CA-guided management in clinical care using prospective safety, feasibility and efficacy studies

A recipe for simulating the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon and its relation with ENSO

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2006. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 28 (2007): 441-460, doi: 10.1007/s00382-006-0190-0.This study investigates how accurately the interannual variability over the Indian Ocean basin and the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can be simulated by different modelling strategies. With a hierarchy of models, from an atmospherical general circulation model (AGCM) forced by observed SST, to a coupled model with the ocean component limited to the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, the role of heat fluxes and of interactive coupling is analyzed. Whenever sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian basin are created by the coupled model, the inverse relationship between the ENSO index and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is recovered, and it is preserved if the atmospherical model is forced by the SSTs created by the coupled model. If the ocean model domain is limited to the Indian Ocean, changes in the Walker circulation over the Pacific during El Nino years induce a decrease of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. However the observed correlation between the ENSO and the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) is not properly modelled and the two indices are not significantly correlated, independently on season. Whenever the ocean domain extends to the Pacific, and ENSO can impact both the atmospheric circulation and the ocean subsurface in the equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean, modelled precipitation patterns associated both to ENSO and to the IOZM closely resemble the observations.The experiments described were performed as a contribution to the ENSEMBLES project funded by the European Commission’s 6th Framework Programme, contract number GOCE-CT-2003-505539

Cerebrovascular Autoregulation Monitoring in the Management of Adult Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: A Delphi Consensus of Clinicians

Abstract: Background: Several methods have been proposed to measure cerebrovascular autoregulation (CA) in traumatic brain injury (TBI), but the lack of a gold standard and the absence of prospective clinical data on risks, impact on care and outcomes of implementation of CA-guided management lead to uncertainty. Aim: To formulate statements using a Delphi consensus approach employing a group of expert clinicians, that reflect current knowledge of CA, aspects that can be implemented in TBI management and CA research priorities. Methods: A group of 25 international academic experts with clinical expertise in the management of adult severe TBI patients participated in this consensus process. Seventy-seven statements and multiple-choice questions were submitted to the group in two online surveys, followed by a face-to-face meeting and a third online survey. Participants received feedback on average scores and the rationale for resubmission or rephrasing of statements. Consensus on a statement was defined as agreement of more than 75% of participants. Results: Consensus amongst participants was achieved on the importance of CA status in adult severe TBI pathophysiology, the dynamic non-binary nature of CA impairment, its association with outcome and the inadvisability of employing universal and absolute cerebral perfusion pressure targets. Consensus could not be reached on the accuracy, reliability and validation of any current CA assessment method. There was also no consensus on how to implement CA information in clinical management protocols, reflecting insufficient clinical evidence. Conclusion: The Delphi process resulted in 25 consensus statements addressing the pathophysiology of impaired CA, and its impact on cerebral perfusion pressure targets and outcome. A research agenda was proposed emphasizing the need for better validated CA assessment methods as well as the focused investigation of the application of CA-guided management in clinical care using prospective safety, feasibility and efficacy studies

Hemodynamic predictors of aortic dilatation in bicuspid aortic valve by velocity-encoded cardiovascular magnetic resonance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Congenital Bicuspid Aortic Valve (BAV) is a significant risk factor for serious complications including valve dysfunction, aortic dilatation, dissection, and sudden death. Clinical tools for identification and monitoring of BAV patients at high risk for development of aortic dilatation, an early complication, are not available.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This paper reports an investigation in 18 pediatric BAV patients and 10 normal controls of links between abnormal blood flow patterns in the ascending aorta and aortic dilatation using velocity-encoded cardiovascular magnetic resonance. Blood flow patterns were quantitatively expressed in the angle between systolic left ventricular outflow and the aortic root channel axis, and also correlated with known biochemical markers of vessel wall disease.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The data confirm larger ascending aortas in BAV patients than in controls, and show more angled LV outflow in BAV (17.54 ± 0.87 degrees) than controls (10.01 ± 1.29) (p = 0.01). Significant correlation of systolic LV outflow jet angles with dilatation was found at different levels of the aorta in BAV patients STJ: r = 0.386 (N = 18, p = 0.048), AAO: r = 0.536 (N = 18, p = 0.022), and stronger correlation was found with patients and controls combined into one population: SOV: r = 0.405 (N = 28, p = 0.033), STJ: r = 0.562 (N = 28, p = 0.002), and AAO r = 0.645 (N = 28, p < 0.001). Dilatation and the flow jet angle were also found to correlate with plasma levels of matrix metallo-proteinase 2.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results of this study provide new insights into the pathophysiological processes underlying aortic dilatation in BAV patients. These results show a possible path towards the development of clinical risk stratification protocols in order to reduce morbidity and mortality for this common congenital heart defect.</p

The Mycobacterium Tuberculosis FAS-II Dehydratases and Methyltransferases Define the Specificity of the Mycolic Acid Elongation Complexes

BACKGROUND: The human pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) has the originality of possessing a multifunctional mega-enzyme FAS-I (Fatty Acid Synthase-I), together with a multi-protein FAS-II system, to carry out the biosynthesis of common and of specific long chain fatty acids: the mycolic acids (MA). MA are the main constituents of the external mycomembrane that represents a tight permeability barrier involved in the pathogenicity of Mtb. The MA biosynthesis pathway is essential and contains targets for efficient antibiotics. We have demonstrated previously that proteins of FAS-II interact specifically to form specialized and interconnected complexes. This finding suggested that the organization of FAS-II resemble to the architecture of multifunctional mega-enzyme like the mammalian mFAS-I, which is devoted to the fatty acid biosynthesis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Based on conventional and reliable studies using yeast-two hybrid, yeast-three-hybrid and in vitro Co-immunoprecipitation, we completed here the analysis of the composition and architecture of the interactome between the known components of the Mtb FAS-II complexes. We showed that the recently identified dehydratases HadAB and HadBC are part of the FAS-II elongation complexes and may represent a specific link between the core of FAS-II and the condensing enzymes of the system. By testing four additional methyltransferases involved in the biosynthesis of mycolic acids, we demonstrated that they display specific interactions with each type of complexes suggesting their coordinated action during MA elongation. SIGNIFICANCE: These results provide a global update of the architecture and organization of a FAS-II system. The FAS-II system of Mtb is organized in specialized interconnected complexes and the specificity of each elongation complex is given by preferential interactions between condensing enzymes and dehydratase heterodimers. This study will probably allow defining essential and specific interactions that correspond to promising targets for Mtb FAS-II inhibitors