On the probability of occurrence of rogue waves

A number of extreme and rogue wave studies have been conducted theoretically, numerically, experimentally and based on field data in the last years, which have significantly advanced our knowledge of ocean waves. So far, however, consensus on the probability of occurrence of rogue waves has not been achieved. The present investigation is addressing this topic from the perspective of design needs. Probability of occurrence of extreme and rogue wave crests in deep water is here discussed based on higher order time simulations, experiments and hindcast data. Focus is given to occurrence of rogue waves in high sea states

On environmental contours for marine and coastal design

Environmental contours are used in structural reliability analysis of marine and coastal structures as an approximate means to locate the boundary of the distribution of environmental variables, and to identify environmental conditions giving rise to extreme structural loads and responses. There are different approaches to estimating environmental contours, some directly linked to methods of structural reliability. Each contouring approach has its pros and cons. Although procedures for applying contours in design have been reported in articles and standards, there is still ambiguity about detail, and the practitioner has considerable flexibility in applying contours. It is not always clear how to estimate environmental contours well. Over four years, DNV-GL, Shell, the University of Oslo and HR Walling-ford worked together to review current practice regarding the use of design contours. In this paper, we present a summary of our findings. We overview the motivations for different approaches to contours, and their resulting characteristics. Using different marine applications, we also explore the various sources of uncertainty present, their impact on contour estimates and the estimation of extreme environmental loads and responses

Experimental study of freak wave impacts on a tension-leg platform

This study investigates the freak wave impinging on a tension-leg platform through wave flume experiments. The freak waves are generated using the focused wave theory. By adjusting the wave focusing location, different incident wave scenarios at the structure location are produced. Simultaneous measurements of wave shape evolutions upon impingement, wave impact pressures on the platform deck, platform motions and tether forces are carried out for synchronized analyses of the wave kinematics/dynamics and structural responses. The variation of these parameters with the incident wave profile is studied. It is found that although applying less intensive local impact pressures as compared to the highly-breaking freak wave, the slightly-breaking or non-breaking freak wave imposes the same level of adverse effect on the platform's global stability in terms of motions and tether forces. In addition, the high-crest freak wave causes violent motions of the floating platform, which are likely to induce snap loads of large amplitude and high occurrence frequency in tethers. The published results would provide useful benchmarks for validating numerical and analytical models

Disks and Outflows in CO Rovibrational Emission from Embedded, Low-Mass Young Stellar Objects

Young circumstellar disks that are still embedded in dense molecular envelopes may differ from their older counterparts, but are historically difficult to study because emission from a disk can be confused with envelope or outflow emission. CO fundamental emission is a potentially powerful probe of the disk/wind structure within a few AU of young protostars. In this paper, we present high spectral (R=90,000) and spatial (0.3") resolution VLT/CRIRES M-band spectra of 18 low-mass young stellar objects (YSOs) with dense envelopes in nearby star-froming regions to explore the utility of CO fundamental 4.6 micron emission as a probe of very young disks. CO fundamental emission is detected from 14 of the YSOs in our sample. The emission line profiles show a range of strengths and shapes, but can generally be classified into a broad, warm component and a narrow, cool component. The broad CO emission is detected more frequently from YSOs with bolometric luminosities of <15 Lsun than those with >15 Lsun, and as with CO emission from CTTSs is attributed to the warm (~1000 K) inner AU of the disk. The CO emission from objects with high bolometric luminosity is produced in cooler (~320 K), narrow lines in 12CO and in rarer isotopologues. From some objects, the narrow lines are blueshifted by up to ~10 km/s, indicating a slow wind origin. For other sources the lines are located at the systemic velocity of the star and likely arise in the disk. For a few YSOs, spatially-extended CO and H2 S(9) emission is detected up to 2" from the central source and is attributed to interactions between the wind and surrounding molecular material. Warm CO absorption is detected in the wind of six objects with velocities up to 100 km/s, often in discrete velocity components. That the wind is partially molecular where it is launched favors ejection in a disk wind rather than a coronal or chromospheric wind.Comment: 26 pages, accepted by A&

Extreme and rogue waves in directional wave fields

It is well established that modulational instability enhances the probability of occurrence for rogue waves if the wave field is long crested, narrow banded and sufficiently steep. As a result, a substantial deviation from commonly used second order theory-based distributions can be expected. However the spreading of the wave energy over a number of directional components can notably reduce the effect of modulational instability. In order to achieve a better understanding on the influence of wave directionality and its implication for design work, numerical simulations based on the truncated potential Euler equations were used. Results show the existence of a transition region between strongly and weakly non-Gaussian statistics as short crestedness increases

Towards the identification of warning criteria: Analysis of a ship accident database

A ship that founders presents a great disaster both from an economical and a human point of view. It is therefore of concern to meteorological centers to include sea state related parameters in marine weather forecasts when they exceed a certain threshold. At present a standardized warning system is not set up yet. To contribute towards the definition of adequate warning criteria, an investigation was undertaken of ship accidents reported as being due to bad weather. Sea state related parameters (i.e. meteorological centers' standard wave products) at the time of 270 accidents were analyzed and compared to known ship characteristics. In order to estimate a certain degree of severity, results were compared to wave climate variation. In particular the use of quantiles seemed to provide a reasonable description of dangerous seas

Development of a bimodal structure in ocean wave spectra

Traditionally, the directional distribution of ocean waves has been regarded as unimodal, with energy concentrated mainly on the wind direction. However, numerical experiments and field measurements have already demonstrated that the energy of short waves tends to be accumulated along two off-wind directions, generating a bimodal directional distribution. Here, numerical simulations of the potential Euler equations are used to investigate the temporal evolution of initially unimodal directional wave spectra. Because this approach does not include external forcing such as wind and breaking dissipation, spectral changes are only driven by nonlinear interactions. The simulations show that the wave energy spreads outward from the spectral peak, following two characteristic directions. As a result, the directional distribution develops a bimodal form as the wavefield evolves. Although bimodal properties are more pronounced in the high wave number part of the spectrum, in agreement with previous field measurements, the simulations also show that directional bimodality characterizes the spectral peak