Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Magnetic and Transport Properties of Perovskite-type Transition Metal Oxides

Transition metal oxides (TMOs) belong to an interesting and challenging field of research in condensed matter physics and materials science. This class of oxide retains a wide range of alluring properties and reveals novel and exotic phenomena like metalinsulator transition, ferromagnetism, exchange bias, and magnetization reversal. The competition and coexistence of different types of ground states gives rise to complex electronic and magnetic phases. This thesis entitled “Magnetic and Transport Properties of Perovskite-type Transition Metal Oxides” mainly focuses on investigations of structural, magnetic and transport properties of some perovskite-type TMOs such as BaTiO3, LaCoO3, SrRuO3, YbCrO3, and GdCrO3. Lattice distortion, disorder and chemical composition are the key parameters to modify basic interactions and to induce new magnetic and electronic properties in such TMOs. Reduction of coherence length scale, by non-magnetic/magnetic impurity substitution, also significantly influences the long-range magnetic order in these TMOs.Research was conducted under the supervision of Prof. S K De of Materials Science division under SPS [School of Chemical Sciences]Research was carried out under CSIR & DST gran

From Video Sequences to Motion Panoramas

We address the problem of constructing mosaics from video sequences taken by rotating cameras. In particular, we investigate the widespread case where the scene is not only static but may also contain large dynamic areas, induced by moving or deforming objects. Most of the existing techniques fail to produce reliable results on such video sequences. For such alignment purposes, two classes of techniques may be used: feature-based and direct methods. We derive both of them in a unified statistical manner and propose an integrated framework to construct what we call motion panoramas, based on a mixed feature-based and direct approach. Experimental results are provided on large image sequences. In particular, we consider sport videos where the moving and deforming athlet is visible in every frame of the sequence, thereby making tricky the alignment task

Magnetic properties of mixed spinel BaTiO3-NiFe2O4 composites

Solid solution of nickel ferrite (NiFe2O4) and barium titanate (BaTiO3), (100-x)BaTiO3-(x) NiFe2O4 has been prepared by solid state reaction. Compressive strain is developed in NiFe2O4 due to mutual structural interaction across the interface of NiFe2O4 and BaTiO3 phases. Quantitative analysis of X-ray diffraction and X-ray photo electron spectrum suggest mixed spinel structure of NiFe2O4. A systematic study of composition dependence of composite indicates BaTiO3 causes a random distribution of Fe and Ni cations among octahedral and tetrahedral sites during non-equilibrium growth of NiFe2O4. The degree of inversion decreases monotonically from 0.97 to 0.75 with increase of BaTiO3 content. Temperature dependence of magnetization has been analyzed by four sublattice model to describe complex magnetic exchange interactions in mixed spinel phase. Curie temperature and saturation magnetization decrease with increase of BaTiO3 concentration. Enhancement of strain and larger occupancy of Ni2+ at tetrahedral site increase coercivity up to 200 Oe. Magnetostructual coupling induced by BaTiO3 improves coercivity in NiFe2O4. An increase in the demagnetization and homogeneity in magnetization process in NiFe2O4 is observed due to the interaction with diamagnetic BaTiO3. (C) 2014 AIP Publishing LL

Unveiling ferrimagnetic ground state, anomalous behavior of the exchange-bias field around spin reorientation, and magnetoelectric coupling in YbCr1−x_{1−x}Fex_{x}O3_{3}(0.1 ⩽x⩽\leqslant x \leqslant 0.6 )

We present a comprehensive experimental study of the magnetic structure, magnetic and dielectric properties of the rare-earth orthochromite-orthoferrite solid-solution series YbCr$_{1−x}$Fe$_{x}$O$_{3}$(0.1 $\leqslant x \leqslant$ 0.6 ). Room-temperature synchrotron x-ray diffraction analysis reveals the absence of any superlattice reflections, which excludes the formation of a B-site-ordered double-perovskite-like phase and establishes the complete solid solubility of Fe at the Cr site within the framework of orthorhombic Pbnm structure. We demonstrate that canted antiferromagnetic ground state of YbCrO$_3$ is converted to a ferrimagnetic with Fe doping, in addition to an increase in the magnetic ordering temperature. An unusual, second magnetic transition (first-order in nature) appears for $x\leqslant$0.3 samples below the ferrimagnetic transition temperature (e.g., at 70 K for x=0.4), which is identified as the spin reorientation of transition metal ions from the neutron powder diffraction measurements, and primarily, driven by the $f−d$ exchange interaction. A clear evidence of the anomalous behavior of coercivity and exchange bias field is found around the spin reorientation temperature, which is characterized by a significant change in the magnetocrystalline anisotropy due to spin reorientation of transition metal ions. Temperature-dependent dielectric data exhibit the magnetoelectric coupling as well as a ferroelectric relaxor-like state at the onset of ferrimagnetic ordering. Here, we reveal the anomalous behavior of the exchange bias field and significant magnetoelectric coupling around the spin reorientation and ferrimagnetic transitions, respectively, in YbCr$_{1−x}$Fe$_x$O3$_.

Tunable Surface Plasmon Resonance in Sn-Doped Zn–Cd–O Alloyed Nanocrystals

Aliovalent ion doped n-type semiconductor nanocrystals (NC) have presently gained high interest in semiconductor research for their potential applications in plasmonics, transparent conducting oxide (TCO), and high speed optical device. For most of the cases the plasmonic absorbance band appears in the near infrared region (NIR) but it is rarely observed in visible wavelength for aliovalent ion doped semiconductor nanocrystals. In this article, we report the synthesis of Sn-doped ZnO monodispersed nanocrystals and their unique plasmonic absorbance property which is tunable from the visible to the NIR region (550 nm to >3000 nm) by varying the Sn dopant concentration and the degree of Cd-alloying. We have studied the surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) of the 4-mercaptopyridine (4-MPy) molecule using Sn:ZnO NC thin film as SERS substrate and found a high enhancement factor value. A TCO thin film with a good figure of merit value has been prepared by Sn:Zn–Cd–O alloyed NCs by taking advantage of high electron density and high mobility of electrons of doped alloyed NCs. Application as SERS substrate and TCO are excellent features of Sn-doped Zn_1–<i>x</i>Cd_<i>x</i>O NCs

Cation Exchange Mediated Synthesis and Tuning of Bimodal Plasmon in Alloyed Ternary Cu₃BiS_3–<i>x</i>Se_<i>x</i> Nanorods

We report a robust methodology for synthesizing monodisperse alloyed Bi₂S_3–<i>x</i>Se_<i>x</i> nanorods (NRs) to tune optical properties with the variation of Se concentration. The intercalation of Cu­(I) into the presynthetic Bi₂S_3–<i>x</i>Se_<i>x</i> NRs converted to ternary Cu₃BiS_3–<i>x</i>Se_<i>x</i> NRs via cation exchange process. The transformation was monitored through the formation of core/shell Bi₂S_3–<i>x</i>Se_<i>x</i>/Cu₃BiS_3–<i>x</i>Se_<i>x</i> nanorod heterostructures. Shape anisotropy results in near-infrared bimodal localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) in Cu₃BiS_3–<i>x</i>Se_<i>x</i> nanorod over a broad range from 600 to 3500 nm with increase of Se:S ratio. The LSPR sensitivity, defined as the change in the LSPR peak wavelength per unit change in the refractive index (RI) of the medium, was estimated to be 250–350 nm/RI unit, much higher than other copper chalcogenides like Cu₂S/Cu₂Se. A fast photodetector was fabricated by Cu₃BiS_3–<i>x</i>Se_<i>x</i> NRs with high photocurrent gain value (∼125) with Se alloying. The intrinsic Cu vacancies and the effective mass of charge carriers play important roles to manipulate optical and electrical properties of Cu₃BiS_3–<i>x</i>Se_<i>x</i> NRs